17 July 2025 China Semiconductors China AI: Sizing the AI chip supply and demand in China Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu +852 2123 2659 robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Boris Van +852 2123 2617 boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma +852 2123 2626 francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com 17 July 2025 Alrick ...

Investment Strategy - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to drive the AIDC hardware industry chain, alleviating domestic AI computing power shortages. The H20 chip has a peak FP16 computing power of 148 TFLOPS, significantly lower than the nearly 2000 TFLOPS of the H100, but its 96GB HBM3 memory and 4.0TB/s memory bandwidth make it suitable for applications requiring large memory capacity and high bandwidth, outperforming previous A100/A800 series [12][13] - The trend towards domestic chip replacement and technological self-sufficiency is irreversible. The Chinese government aims for a 70% self-sufficiency rate in chips by 2025. Domestic products like Huawei's Ascend 910 series and Haiguang's Deep Computing No. 3 are continuously improving their performance, with the Ascend 910C matching NVIDIA's H200 [13] - High demand for edge-side applications is expanding growth opportunities for H20 and RTX PRO. AI application monthly active users in China grew rapidly, with AI plugin applications increasing by 106% year-on-year. The high bandwidth characteristics of H20 are accelerating the large-scale implementation of AI inference scenarios [14][15] Industry News - The initial lifting of overseas computing chip restrictions allows H20 and MI308 to re-enter the Chinese market, which is expected to significantly accelerate domestic IDC construction progress. NVIDIA plans to resume sales of H20 and introduce a new compliant GPU, RTX PRO, suitable for digital twin AI applications [16] - T-Mobile's NTN service, T-Satellite, will officially launch on July 23, focusing on satellite direct-to-cellular networks to address communication challenges in areas without ground network coverage. This service has attracted over 1.8 million users during testing, indicating strong market demand [17] - OpenAI announced the launch of a general-purpose AI agent within ChatGPT, capable of assisting users with various computer-based tasks. This development is expected to drive further growth in AI applications and increase computing power demand [18][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2025 work priorities for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing the need for 5G and 6G technology investment and the development of industrial internet platforms [20] - SpaceX plans to launch its third-generation Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, aiming to provide significantly higher downlink and uplink capacities compared to previous generations, potentially competing with ground cellular networks [21][22] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 7.02% increase this week, outperforming major indices. The IDC, optical modules, and optical communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 11.83%, 9.71%, and 6.10% respectively [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang is making significant efforts to regain market share in China's AI computing sector after losing ground to domestic chip companies during the U.S. export restrictions [4][5][8]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Strategy - Jensen Huang's visit to China includes meetings with government officials and key industry players, aiming to restore confidence in Nvidia's operations in the region [4][5]. - Nvidia has received assurances from the U.S. government to resume sales of the H20 chip in China, which is a downgraded version of the H100 series designed to comply with export regulations [5][11]. - The company's market share in China has dropped from 95% during the export control period in 2022 to 50% due to the emergence of local competitors [8]. Group 2: Domestic Competitors - Chinese chip manufacturers have rapidly developed alternatives to Nvidia's H20 chip, including products from Kunlun, Moore Threads, Huawei, and Cambricon, which are aggressively targeting Nvidia's market share [7][12]. - Domestic chip companies have reported significant demand, with some experiencing a surge in orders and achieving substantial revenue growth, such as Cambricon's quarterly revenue increasing by 42.3 times [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as local firms focus on AI inference capabilities, which are less complex than training models, allowing them to better compete against Nvidia [14][15]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Nvidia's revenue loss due to the H20 ban is projected to be around $8 billion (approximately 57.3 billion yuan) in Q2 2025 [17]. - China represents a crucial market for Nvidia, contributing about 15% of its global revenue, equating to approximately $18 billion annually [16]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and export restrictions have created uncertainty for Nvidia's long-term prospects in China, despite the potential for short-term sales recovery with the H20's return [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and challenges faced by Cambrian (寒武纪), highlighting its significant market value drop despite achieving profitability for the first time. The increasing competition in the AI chip sector and the diminishing uniqueness of Cambrian's offerings are key factors contributing to its stock price decline. Group 1: Company Performance - Cambrian's market value peaked at over 340 billion yuan in February but has since fallen to around 230 billion yuan [1] - The company reported its first-ever profits, with net profits of 272 million yuan and 355 million yuan expected in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive pressure on Cambrian has intensified, particularly from Huawei and Haiguang Information, which are becoming stronger in the AI chip market [3] - Cambrian's latest chip, the Shiyuan 590, has performance close to 80% of NVIDIA's A100, but it is still outperformed by Huawei's Ascend series [5][6] Group 3: Financial Challenges - Despite achieving profitability, Cambrian's financial situation remains precarious, with negative operating cash flows of -1.618 billion yuan and -1.399 billion yuan for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [8] - The company's cash reserves have halved to 1.972 billion yuan in 2024 and are expected to drop further to 638 million yuan in Q1 2025 [8] - Cambrian's R&D expenses are significantly high, exceeding its revenue, with Q1 2025 R&D spending reaching 235 million yuan [8] Group 4: Market Valuation - Cambrian's current market capitalization is approximately 239.6 billion yuan, which implies a required annual profit of 4.717 billion yuan to justify its valuation, necessitating a more than threefold increase in quarterly net profit [9] - The potential for a price drop in AI chips due to increased domestic competition raises questions about Cambrian's high valuation sustainability [9]

家人们，我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，今天咱们聊个大新闻——英伟达又杀回全球市值第一了！这事儿背后藏着AI时代的底层逻辑，A股的朋友们可 得擦亮眼睛看清楚。 周二美股收盘，英伟达市值3.45万亿美元，把微软苹果都甩在身后。这可不是简单的股价波动，杰富瑞那帮华尔街老狐狸直接放话，今年英伟达利润率能 冲到80%！什么概念？卖100块钱芯片，净赚80块，比茅台还暴利。要知道现在英伟达毛利率才61%，这意味着Blackwell芯片量产之后，利润空间直接炸 开锅。 为什么杰富瑞这么硬气？关键在Blackwell芯片。这玩意儿现在每周能生产7.2万颗，比之前的Hopper快了一倍多。微软已经部署了几万个，OpenAI用它处 理100万亿个token，相当于把全人类所有书籍内容读了几百遍。更绝的是，软件优化又让性能提升1.5倍，这哪是卖硬件，分明是在印钞机上装了涡轮增 压器。 最狠的是英伟达的转型。以前它就是个卖显卡的，现在直接升级成AI基建巨头。从超算中心到对冲基金，客户抢着买它的"硬件+软件+系统"全家桶。就 像微软Azure，光靠英伟达的GB200机架，单季AI收入就翻了五倍。这种"算力即服务"的模式，让英伟达从赚 ...

截至2025年5月29日 13:51，上证科创板100指数(000698)强势上涨2.66%，成分股经纬恒润(688326)上涨9.84%，三生国健(688336)上涨9.31%，博瑞医药（维 权）(688166)上涨8.71%，智翔金泰(688443)，泽璟制药(688266)等个股跟涨。科创100ETF汇添富(589980)上涨2.39%，最新价报0.99元。 流动性方面，科创100ETF汇添富盘中换手2.61%，成交2001.76万元。拉长时间看，截至5月28日，科创100ETF汇添富近1月日均成交1861.93万元。 规模方面，科创100ETF汇添富近2周规模增长2.34亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金1/11。 份额方面，科创100ETF汇添富近2周份额增长2.52亿份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金1/11。 资金流入方面，科创100ETF汇添富近10个交易日内，合计"吸金"2.48亿元。 截至2025年5月29日 13:55，上证科创板综合指数(000680)强势上涨2.14%，成分股概伦电子(688206)上涨20.01%，益方生物(688382)上涨20.00%，中邮科技 (68 ...

部分资金获利兑现：4月下旬以来，A股已提前反映中美关系缓和预期，内资机构在政策落地后选择兑 现盈利，转向防御性板块（如银行、公用事业）； 担忧后期仍会面临持续博弈：部分投资者认为90天的暂缓期结束前仍然会有持续博弈，想等市场情况更 为明朗再说； 5月12日，中美经贸谈判宣布达成阶段性协议。 消息公布后，A股三大指数在5月12日至19日期间整体呈现震荡回调格局，上证指数基本持平，深成指 和创业板指小幅下跌，北向资金呈现流出状态。 与此同时，纳斯达克却保持了震荡上行的趋势，区间涨幅超过了7.18%。5月12日单日涨幅更是达到 4.35%（数据来源：Wind），其中科技股领涨，特斯拉、亚马逊、英伟达等涨幅超5%～8%。 对此，很多投资者纷纷表示不解： 为啥大盘就是不涨呢？大盘到底啥时候涨呢？ 在星哥看来，A股相比较外盘走出"独立行情"，可能有如下原因： 市场转向小微盘股的炒作：上周末，证监会颁布支持上市公司参与并购重组的新规后，部分资金流出大 盘股，转向炒作小微盘股的并购重组预期。 市场在主线方面仍未形成共识：目前市场热点在小微盘、银行公众事业、新消费、人工智能等多点开 花，未形成共识，进而无法推动大盘持续上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cambricon plans to raise up to 4.98 billion yuan through a private placement of A-shares to enhance its competitive edge in the AI chip market [1] Group 1: Fundraising Details - The fundraising will be allocated to three main areas: 2.9 billion yuan for a chip platform project, 1.6 billion yuan for a software platform project, and 480 million yuan for working capital [1] - This is Cambricon's second fundraising since its IPO in 2020, with the first round in 2022 initially planned for 2.472 billion yuan but later adjusted to 1.672 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Business Overview - Cambricon specializes in the research, design, and sales of AI core chips, having launched several product lines including the Cambricon 1A, 1H, 1M series processors and various cloud and edge computing chips [1] - The performance of the Cambricon 590 training chip has reached 80% of NVIDIA's A100, although further advancements are needed to overcome the 3nm process technology [1] Group 3: R&D Investment and Financial Performance - Over the past five years, Cambricon has invested over 5.7 billion yuan in R&D, with annual expenditures exceeding revenue from 2020 to 2024 [2] - Revenue figures from 2020 to 2024 were 459 million yuan, 721 million yuan, 729 million yuan, 709 million yuan, and 1.174 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The company has faced continuous losses during this period, with net losses of 435 million yuan, 825 million yuan, 1.257 billion yuan, 848 million yuan, and 452 million yuan [2] - A turnaround occurred in Q4 2024, with revenue of 989 million yuan (up 75.51%) and a net profit of 272 million yuan (up 768.58%) [2] - In Q1 2025, driven by explosive demand for domestic large models, revenue surged by 4230.22% to 1.111 billion yuan, with a net profit of 355 million yuan (up 256.82%) [2]

无可置疑的，DeepSeek-R1模型的面世使中国AI技术发展有了极大的优势侧，也标志着人工智能领域的 里程碑式突破。 不过，技术创新往往伴随应用成本的转移。约65%的早期采用者反馈，在实际部署中需要投入大量开发 资源进行适配优化，这在一定程度上削弱了其理论上的效率优势。 这款具有颠覆性意义的推理模型不仅在研发效率上展现出显著优势，其性能指标可与OpenAI等业界领 军企业的产品分庭抗礼，甚至基于中国的应用场景，可能还有所超越，而其所需计算资源较同类产品大 幅缩减近30%。 该模型的成功实践既印证了算法创新的无限可能，也引出了关键的技术进化命题，即当未来算法突破与 传统计算架构出现适配瓶颈时，行业将面临怎样的转变挑战？ 当前主流大模型（如GPT-4、Gemini Pro、Llama3等）正以每月迭代2-3次的频率推进技术革新，持续刷 新性能基准。DeepSeek-R1通过独创的分布式训练框架和动态量化技术，成功将单位算力下的推理效能 提升40%，其研发轨迹为行业提供了算法与系统工程协同进化的典型案例。 而且，该团队研发的多头潜注意力机制（MLA）在实现内存占用降低50%的突破性进展时，也带来了 开发复杂度的显 ...

申请入围"中国IC独角兽" 半导体高质量发展创新成果征集 起因爆料 4月27日，投资平台"韭研公社"首次披露R2参数细节，随后X平台（原Twitter）用户@iruletheworldmo发布"1.2万亿参数+97.3%成本下降"的爆料。 4月28日，HuggingFaceCEO在推特发布含DeepSeek仓库链接的神秘帖子，进一步引爆猜测。 截至4月28日，DeepSeek官方未正式发布R2，但多个第三方机构通过技术拆解验证了部分参数合理性。 热议传播 这场热议始于4月27日的投资社区"韭研公社"，当"1.2万亿参数+97.3%成本降幅"的词条突然出现，立刻引发技术圈与资本圈的双重震动。紧接着，X平台 上知名科技博主的爆料、HuggingFaceCEO的神秘推文，让传闻热度呈指数级攀升。在技术论坛，开发者们围绕"混合专家模型（MoE）如何将万亿参数计 算量压缩至百亿级"展开激烈讨论；在资本市场，"华为昇腾概念股"应声大涨，拓维信息等供应链企业单日涨幅突破10%，仿佛提前庆祝国产算力的突围 时刻。 | çelebi � @celebi_int · 15小时 | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...