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九厂放量有望推动收入稳步增长
HTSC· 2025-05-13 07:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.0 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 541 million USD, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.3%, primarily driven by increased wafer shipments [16][20]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year but down 2.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter due to depreciation from new production lines [16][20]. - For Q2 2025, the company guides revenue between 550-570 million USD, with a gross margin forecast of 7-9%, mainly impacted by depreciation [21]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue reached 541 million USD, with wafer shipments of 1.231 million pieces, a year-over-year increase of 20.0% [16][20]. - The company expects full-year revenue growth driven by sustained capacity utilization and an increase in 12-inch capacity [16][18]. Capacity and Production - The production capacity utilization rate was 102.7% in Q1 2025, with the second 12-inch production line expected to ramp up steadily [2][21]. - The company aims to shorten ramp-up time and increase shipment volumes to stabilize gross margins [2]. Pricing and ASP - The average selling price (ASP) in Q1 2025 decreased by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, but the company anticipates stable pricing for the year, with potential increases in 12-inch prices [3][5]. - The company believes that 2024 will be the price low point, with opportunities for price increases if supply-demand conditions tighten [3]. Segment Performance - Q1 2025 revenue from analog and power management grew by 12% quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from increased demand for power management chips [4][26]. - The 12-inch wafer revenue reached 310 million USD in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 40.8% [24]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 2.168 billion USD, 2.453 billion USD, and 2.739 billion USD respectively, with net profit estimates of 52.31 million USD, 82.49 million USD, and 97.02 million USD [5][18][19]. - The target price of 43.0 HKD is based on a 1.5 times price-to-book ratio for 2025 [5][29].