Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - For PX and PTA, due to cost collapse and valuation decline, a monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, and holding long PX and short PTA positions is advised. PTA is entering a pattern of inventory accumulation as new installations are put into operation and polyester factories cut production [11]. - MEG's upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, MEG is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly, mainly influenced by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [12]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to high supply and a supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, fundamental pressure remains high [19]. - Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, affected by factors such as production volume, inventory, and oil price fluctuations [20]. - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel and weak demand, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - PP's spot price is falling, but low - price transactions are relatively good. The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound as the near - month contract subsidizes the premium. In the second half of the year, the pattern of high profits and high production will continue to affect it [43]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate, influenced by factors such as market supply and demand and inventory [47]. - Glass's original sheet price is stable, with most downstream enterprises purchasing on demand and the market in a wait - and - see state [53]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as spot price, inventory, and trading volume [56]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to speculative factors. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [61]. - Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the second half of the year, due to increased supply and weak demand, the high - profit state is difficult to maintain [64]. - Soda ash's spot market has little change, with weakening prices and general downstream demand [68]. - LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening, affected by factors such as futures prices, spreads, and industrial chain operating rates [73]. - PVC's trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit [85]. - Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market reaching a phased high [90]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly, affected by factors such as futures prices, freight rates, and exchange rates [92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PX's main contract closed at 6758, PTA's at 4790, and MEG's at 4323. The daily changes were 0.0%, 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 206, PTA (9 - 1) was 178, and MEG (9 - 1) was - 14 [5]. - **Market Overview**: PX prices fell on the 25th, following the decline of upstream crude oil. The downstream polyester market provided limited support. Some PTA producers considered reducing their operating rates. However, the increase in PTA production capacity in the second half of the year may support PX prices [8]. - **Market Outlook**: PX and PTA are recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG's upside space is limited, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. 2. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the rubber's main contract's daily - session closing price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,733 lots, and the open interest was 156,038 lots [14]. - **Industry News**: As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 128.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,225 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,768 lots and an open interest of 52,975 lots [17]. - **Industry News**: As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [17]. - **Market Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face fundamental pressure in the medium term [19]. 4. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, BU2507 closed at 3,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and BU2508 closed at 3,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% [21]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery's planned production volume was 148.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. As of June 23, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.0% [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [20]. 5. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, L2509 closed at 7,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The 09 - contract basis was 9, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 47 [35]. - **Market Situation**: The LLDPE market price partially declined. The futures market was weak, and the demand side was weak. Although there were some factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - **Market Outlook**: LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. 6. PP - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PP2509 closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The 09 - contract basis was 46, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 58 [40]. - **Market News**: The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the downstream demand was general, but low - price transactions were relatively good [40]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. 7. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [43]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price of caustic soda continued to fall due to the price cut of Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 - contract is facing delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound and face pressure in the second half of the year [43]. 8. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of pulp closed at 5,070 yuan/ton during the day session and 5,072 yuan/ton during the night session. The trading volume was 299,380 lots, and the open interest was 165,019 lots [48]. - **Industry News**: The futures main contract SP2509 fell by 2.01% to 5,070 yuan/ton. Downstream paper mills' procurement volume decreased year - on - year, and port inventory remained high [49]. - **Market Outlook**: Pulp is expected to fluctuate [47]. 9. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FG509 closed at 1,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20%. The 09 - contract basis was 995, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 1006 [54]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass original sheet price was generally stable, with some small fluctuations. Most downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [54]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass's original sheet price is stable [53]. 10. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of methanol closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 1,052,872 lots, and the open interest was 904,459 lots [57]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index decreased by 15.33. The port inventory increased significantly this week [59]. - **Market Outlook**: Methanol is expected to fluctuate [56]. 11. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of urea closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 551,401 lots, and the open interest was 255,236 lots [61]. - **Industry News**: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. In the short term, due to some off - market information, the market had a large - scale rebound [62]. - **Market Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face supply pressure and weak domestic demand in the medium term [61]. 12. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of styrene 2506 was 7,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan compared to the previous day. The EB - BZ spread was 1315 [64]. - **Market Situation**: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene is expected to increase significantly, and the demand is expected to be weak, leading to inventory accumulation and profit compression [66]. - **Market Outlook**: Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. 13. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, SA2509 closed at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The 09 - contract basis was 127, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 12 [70]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a weakening trend. The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand was general [70]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash's spot market has little change [68]. 14. LPG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PG2508 closed at 4,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, and PG2509 closed at 4,139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 - contract was 574 [75]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the expected price of Saudi CP propane decreased, and many PDH devices were under maintenance [82]. - **Market Outlook**: LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening [73]. 15. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,871 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the basis was - 121, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was - 73 [85]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, high production, and high inventory, with a weak trend [85]. - **Market Outlook**: PVC's trend is weak [85]. 16. Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FU2508 closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88%, and LU2508 closed at 3,716 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The spread between LU08 and FU08 was 717 [90]. - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [90]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, EC2506 closed at 1,885.3 points, a decrease of 0.21%, EC2508 closed at 1,740.2 points, a decrease of 3.07%, and EC2510 closed at 1,292.8 points, a decrease of 2.31% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]