2025 年 12 月 17 日 品 研 究 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5482 | -36 | 282,348 | 257,884 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5444 | -34 | 19,972 | 62,488 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5736 | -22 | 160,310 | 278,789 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5776 | -20 | 55,778 | 164,515 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed significant gains on November 28, with lead futures performing strongly, closing up 1.09% at 17,090.00 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai market reported that Chihong Zn & Ge lead was priced between 17,000-17,060 CNY/ton, with a premium of 0-50 CNY/ton over the SHFE lead 2512 contract [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the domestic smelting sector is experiencing mixed changes, with unresolved issues regarding primary lead raw materials and a continued decline in treatment charges (TC) [1] - In Hebei, the supply of recycled lead is regionally tight, and the profitability of recycled lead smelting has weakened, leading to a decrease in operational willingness, with current recycled lead finished product inventories at historical lows [1] - Demand remains stable, with SMM reporting that the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery plants in Guangzhou is steady at 70.56%, and terminal demand in the lead market is showing stability, with battery plants purchasing on dips and a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere [1] Future Outlook - Southwest Futures indicates that the supply of lead concentrate is tight, and by-product revenues are supporting primary lead production. Strict regulations in northern regions are affecting the circulation of waste batteries, leading to slow growth in recycled lead output [1] - There is strong demand for energy storage batteries and a recovery in automotive battery replacement needs, although demand for electric bicycle batteries has shifted from strong to weak, with high dealer inventories [1] - Last week, social inventories of electrolytic lead increased by 2,800 tons, and the market is expected to experience fluctuations driven by supply disruptions and resilient demand, potentially leading to a wide-ranging oscillation pattern [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 宽幅震荡 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，沪胶期货呈现区间震荡整理态势，主力合约 2601 在 15000~15600 元/吨宽幅波动。展望后市， 多空分歧较大，预计沪胶将延续宽幅震荡格局。 上周末，美国 9 月非农就业数据正式公布，新增就业人数大幅不及市场预期，失业率进一步攀升至 4.4%，直接引发全球金融市场风险偏好降温。同时，尽管数据疲软短期放缓了美元走强节奏，但市场对全 球需求萎缩的预期显著升温。由于沪胶需求端高度依赖轮胎出口，全球经济走弱将直接削弱海外轮胎市场 需求，进而拖累基本面支撑力度。短期来看，美国非农数据引发的宏观情绪弱势仍将持续影响沪胶市场。 若后续全球经济数据未改善，沪胶大概率维持弱势震荡格局，需警惕需求预期恶化带来的进一步下行风险。 当前东南亚主产区仍处于割胶旺季，泰国东北部胶水产量稳步释放，但南部降雨偏多，导致割胶作业 间歇性受阻，一定程度上限制了产量增长。国内市场方面，云南产区将于 12 月初陆续停割，海南产区也 将在 12 月中下旬逐步结束割胶工作，国内供应将趋于收紧。尽管国内胶水产量占全球比重不足 6%，但停 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Main Topics - The report focuses on the silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) market, with titles "Silicon Iron: A Large Number of Warehouse Receipts Registered, Pay Attention to Position Risk" and "Ferromanganese: Cost Bottom Support, Wide - Range Fluctuation" [2][3] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Li Yafei (Investment Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021184), and the contact person is Jin Yuanyuan (Futures Qualification Number: F03134630) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures Market - Silicon iron 2603 contract closed at 5448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 316,787 and an open interest of 217,611; silicon iron 2605 contract closed at 5408 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a trading volume of 11,427 and an open interest of 33,842 - Ferromanganese 2601 contract closed at 5636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 120,736 and an open interest of 384,812; ferromanganese 2605 contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 22,886 and an open interest of 117,466 [3] Spot Market - The summary price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 41.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.3 yuan; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 03 futures) was - 298 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot - futures price spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 116 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The near - far month price spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 was 40 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the near - far month price spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2603 - silicon iron 2603 was 204 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On November 25th, the price range of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Qinghai was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and in Inner Mongolia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1090 - 1120 US dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 US dollars) - The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing significant fear, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 7, suggesting a potential left-side trading opportunity if the trend does not reverse [2] - Institutions are likely to take a cautious approach in November, preferring to secure profits rather than take risks, leading to a high-low rotation strategy [2] - Global assets experienced a sharp decline due to tightening overseas liquidity, increasing divergence in AI, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - There is a strong willingness from policymakers to support the market, as evidenced by the recent issuance of multiple technology-related ETFs over the weekend [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is currently experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with a recent high of approximately 4133 and a low of around 4055, suggesting a lack of a strong upward trend [2][4] - The dollar's significant rise has negatively impacted gold prices, leading to a continued oscillation rather than a clear upward movement [2][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a substantial influence on gold's price movement, with potential targets of 4200 if the data is favorable and 4000 if it is unfavorable [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold has seen an increase over three days, with the Shanghai gold reaching a high of 950, and the previous positions have yielded expected profits [5] - The international silver market also experienced an upward trend, reaching a high of 52.5, with a target of 53 still in sight [5] - The international crude oil market has shown limited volatility, closing around 59.5, with previous recommendations to buy near the support level of 58 [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, along with their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The 12601 contract had a position of 480,907 hands, an increase of 9,616 hands. Spot prices of various types of iron ore remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the year - to - date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,070 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,277 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [8] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, there were decreases in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil. In October 2025, there were changes in national steel production, imports, and exports [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. For silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [12] - **Macro - Industry News**: On November 19th, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,139.5 yuan/ton, down 1.7%. For coke J2601, the closing price was 1,639 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and spot prices. The basis and spreads also changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were data on the trading volume, positions, and closing prices of different contracts, as well as spot - futures spreads and price changes in the log spot market [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Customs总署 decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in the futures price of 20 rubber, which reached a peak of 12,650.00 yuan, closing at 12,505.00 yuan with a gain of 0.93% on October 24 [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The overall rubber market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with the recent fundamentals remaining relatively stable. The import data from September has contradicted the logic of production area reductions, and there is a clear expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter, while demand remains strong due to tire exports and operational rates [2]. - Short-term price movements for rubber are anticipated to be volatile, as supply is gradually being released with the ongoing rubber tapping. However, the demand side is expected to provide limited support. Weather conditions in production areas are a key concern, as adverse weather could disrupt tapping schedules and impact production levels [3]. - There is a decreasing trend in rubber inventory in China, with continuous declines in warehouse receipts, which serves as a medium-term support for rubber prices. The easing of macroeconomic pressures and increased tire production rates are driving the market upward [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with logs showing repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.58%. The open interest decreased by 4,570 lots to 558,163 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 781.0 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601. to Super Special) decreasing by 2.3 yuan to 144.7 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. In September, first - tier city new commodity housing sales prices showed a decline, with varying trends in different cities [4][5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Trend**: The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%, with a trading volume of 822,987 lots and an open interest of 1,977,511 lots (down 18,322 lots). For hot - rolled coils (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 423,300 lots and an open interest of 1,501,176 lots (down 8,822 lots) [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Other steel - related production data also showed different trends. In the week of October 16, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [11][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Supported by cost at the bottom, with wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5538 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan to 5200 yuan/ton. Various price differences also changed [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 22, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions changed. An eastern Chinese steel mill set the silicomanganese purchase price at 5800 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 1700 tons. Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: With repeated expectations, wide - range fluctuations. Both have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][16][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1177 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or 3.2%. The closing price of coke J2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan or 2.2%. Some basis and spread values changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to iron ore, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [18]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Repeated oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][20]. - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 795, a daily decrease of 1.1% and a weekly decrease of 0.3%. The trading volume increased by 127.3% daily and decreased by 12% weekly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other commodities, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and new commodity housing sales prices in September showed declines in different - tier cities [24].