Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent extension of the tariff negotiation deadline between China and the U.S. is a positive development for the A-share market, indicating that further discussions are likely and that the market sentiment will benefit from the avoidance of escalation in relations [1] - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62% respectively, indicating volatility in the market [3][7] - The wide fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as beneficial for consolidating positions, with expectations that the index will find it easier to rise towards 3674 points after the recent volatility [5] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but saw a high of 3636 points before retreating to a low of 3593 points, reflecting a rollercoaster trading day with significant internal capital outflow of nearly 500 billion [3][7] - The market is characterized by a "seesaw effect" between heavyweight blue-chip stocks and thematic stocks, suggesting a strategy of focusing on thematic opportunities rather than just index movements [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The manganese silicon market is subject to macro - sentiment disturbances and shows wide - range fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SiFe2508 is 5326 (down 22 from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 12,560 and an open interest of 32,874; SiFe2509 has a closing price of 5288 (down 28), a trading volume of 151,170, and an open interest of 218,647. For manganese silicon, MnSi2508 has a closing price of 5550 (down 52), a trading volume of 27,811, and an open interest of 24,513; MnSi2509 has a closing price of 5556 (down 54), a trading volume of 364,607, and an open interest of 405,076 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 37.0 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 08 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton (up 22); that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 54). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron (2508 - 2509) is 38 yuan/ton (up 6); that of manganese silicon (2508 - 2509) is - 12 yuan/ton (up 2). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 224 yuan/ton (down 30); that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 268 yuan/ton (down 26) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On June 24, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5000 - 5100, Ningxia 5100 - 5150 (down 50), Qinghai 5050 - 5200, Gansu 5050 - 5150, Inner Mongolia 5100 - 5150; 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650, Ningxia 5550 - 5650, Qinghai 5550 - 5600, Gansu 5700 - 5750, Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1000 - 1030 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern price of 6517 silicon manganese was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the southern price was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton due to tight supply [1] - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the silicon iron purchase price at 5480 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase volume of 600 tons [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 706. 0 | 3.0 | 0. 4 ...

2025 年 06 月 20 日 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项目 | 2025/6/19 | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/16 | | 2025/6/13 日涨跌幅周涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2507合约(收盘价) | 798 | 795. 5 | 793 | 792 | 767.5 | 0. 3% | 4. 0% | | | 2507合约(成交量) | 21160 | 32071 | 47147 | 29796 | 15211 | -34. 0% | 39% | | | 2507合约(持仓量) | 22957 | 23403 | 24075 | 21987 | 20998 | -1. 9% | 9% | | | 2509合约(收盘价) | 794 | 795 | 802 | 801 | 784. 5 | -0. 1% | 1 ...

张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2025/6/16 | 价格指标 项目 | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/13 | 2025/6/12 | | 日涨跌幅 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 792 | 2507合约(收盘价) | 795. 5 | 793 | 767.5 | 765 | 0. 3% | 4. 0% | | 29796 | 2507合约(成交量) | 32071 | 47147 | 15211 | 14867 | -32. 0% | 116% | | 21987 | 2507合约 (持仓量) | 23403 | 24075 | 20998 | 22180 | -2. 8% | ୧୫% | | 801 | 2509合约 (收盘价) | 795 | 802 | 784. 5 | 783. 5 | -0. 9% | 1 % | | 7175 | 盘面 2509合约(成交量) | 13885 | ...

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Group 1 - The operating rate of PDH units is expected to remain below 70% due to poor profitability, despite new units starting up in June and July [1] - The demand for alkylation and MTBE units is increasing, driven by gasoline demand, while there is a slight increase in demand for C4 [1] - The international LPG price is declining, with US propane inventories continuing to rise and overall market resources being abundant [1] Group 2 - The domestic LPG supply is rebounding, with inventory levels remaining high and port storage capacity slightly decreasing after reaching a seasonal high [2] - The market is experiencing a cautious sentiment due to tariff issues, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and chemical demand being weak [2] - The PDH weekly capacity utilization has slightly rebounded but remains at a multi-year low, while alkylation capacity utilization has also increased, with margins near zero [2] Group 3 - Domestic refinery prices are weak, with terminal gas sales declining and increased refinery output leading to a loose supply of domestic gas [3] - Chemical demand is recovering month-on-month, but PDH margins have slightly decreased due to falling naphtha prices, limiting future growth potential [3] - Overall market pressure is evident with rising inventories at both terminals and refineries, despite some support from strong crude oil prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]

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