2月23日，美指中线低位宽幅震荡，上周收阳柱。从图形来看，仍然在区间内震荡，本周建议关注 98.10-96.80区间震荡行情，若能上破再留意震荡向上格局。至于中线是宽幅震荡后向下破位创新低，还 是震荡后向上破位迎来中线的反弹行情，反弹是指向上测试102.80和103.20区域，个人建议两手准备。 从周线极别框架来看，美指中线向上反弹的概率更大些，但这么久都没上去，所以两手准备比较理性 些；长线还是看空美指，现在问题就是中线反不反弹。本周短线建议先按区间震荡格局先操作，然后再 走一步看一步。今日操作建议：97.50-97.60区域做空美指，止损97.90，目标看向97.10和96.80．控制仓 量，严格止损。 欧元最高测试1.2080后向下回调，上周图收阴柱。从图形来看，欧元仍在日线震荡向上通道内运行，后 市继续关注区间内震荡行情，若跌破通道大概率将迎来深度回调行情，下方可关注1.1030和1.0870区 域；若一直在上方震荡，也有可能震荡后直接向上破位拉涨创新高去1.2300甚至1.2750，这是长线欧元 看涨目标，现在问题就是中线要不要深度回踩的问题了，所以建议中线两手准备。短线本周建议按区间 震荡格局操作 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 硅铁：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 锰硅：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 期现价差、近远月价差和跨品种价差均取期货收盘价 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社：【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线：2 月 6 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5350，青海 5200-5300，甘肃 5250- 5300，内蒙 5300-5350；75#硅铁：陕西 5950-6000，宁夏 5750-5900，青海 5800-5900，甘肃 5750- 5850，内蒙 5850-5900（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 F ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 硅铁：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 锰硅：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货合约 收盘价 较前一交易日 成交量 持仓量 硅铁2603 5654 3 4 93,117 89,527 硅铁2605 5644 3 8 90,122 129,808 锰硅2603 5828 2 8 20,117 58,065 锰硅2605 5868 3 2 118,851 354,221 价 格 较前一交易日 单 位 5350 - 元/吨 5650 -30.0 元/吨 42.7 - 元/吨度 745 - 元/吨 硅铁（现货-03期货） -304 -34 元/吨 锰硅（现货-03期货） -178 -58 元/吨 硅铁2603-2605 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **豆粕期货**: The soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Brazil's soybean harvest is abundant and gradually hitting the market, leading to significant global supply pressure. Domestic downstream demand is weak, while high oil - mill operation rates and low breeding profits suppress consumption growth. However, Argentina's drought and the continuous reduction of domestic soybean meal inventory provide bottom support [6]. - **豆油期货**: The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation. As the oil - mill operation rate recovers, soybean oil supply is becoming looser, and terminal consumption is weak, with inventory pressure still existing. But the US biodiesel policy expectations and international crude oil price fluctuations support the soybean oil futures price [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 豆粕期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound stage. The 4th - week oil - mill soybean actual crushing volume is 2.1021 million tons, the operation rate is 57.83%, and the soybean meal inventory is 898,600 tons. Pay attention to South American weather, Brazil's new - crop arrival rhythm, and domestic breeding demand [6]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend last week, with a slightly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 was expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean meal futures price is currently in a sideways trend, with a strongly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak - range fluctuation, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [19][21][24] 豆油期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range fluctuation stage. The 125 oil - mills' actual soybean oil output in the 4th week is 39,940 tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory is 956,000 tons. Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward trend last week, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 was expected to continue a slightly bullish range - bound pattern [32]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 is expected to be in a high - level range - bound stage [32]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazil's premium. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [42][45][47]

2026 年 1 月 26 日 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 期现价差、近远月价差和跨品种价差均取期货收盘价 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、铁合金在线：1 月 23 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5350（+50），青海 5250-5350 （+25），甘肃 5200-5250（-25），内蒙 5250-5300；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900（+25），宁夏 5750- 5800（+50），青海 5700-5750，甘肃 5700-5750（+50），内蒙 5800-5850（+50）（现金含税自然 块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1060-1080(+10)，75#1100-1140（+10）（美元/吨，含税）。硅 锰 6517#北方报价 5650-5700（-25）元/吨；南方报价 5800-58 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are experiencing a game between long and short sentiments, resulting in wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 are 5482 and 5444 respectively, down 36 and 34 from the previous trading day. The closing prices of manganese ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 are 5736 and 5776 respectively, down 22 and 20 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also provided [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5200 yuan/ton, down 20 from the previous trading day. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5540 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Differences**: The spot - 03 futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy is - 282 yuan/ton, up 16; the spot - 03 futures price difference of manganese ferroalloy is - 196 yuan/ton, up 22. The 2603 - 2605 price difference of silicon ferroalloy is 38 yuan/ton, down 2; the 2603 - 2605 price difference of manganese ferroalloy is - 40 yuan/ton, down 2. The 2603 price difference between manganese ferroalloy and silicon ferroalloy is 254 yuan/ton, up 14; the 2605 price difference between them is 332 yuan/ton, up 14 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On December 16, the prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions and the FOB prices are reported. The northern and southern quotes of 6517 silicon - manganese are also given [2]. - **Production Reduction News**: A silicon ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia plans to shut down 4 furnaces on December 12, with an expected daily production reduction of about 350 tons. Qinghai Jinfeng plans to shut down 2 furnaces on December 16, reducing daily production by 70 - 80 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: UMK and NMT have announced their manganese ore quotes for China in January 2026, with a 0.05 - dollar/ton - degree increase compared to the previous month [4]. - **Procurement Price**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 5710 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 300 tons. Jianlong Iron and Steel's December silicon - manganese tender prices in different regions and the procurement quantities are provided. A steel mill in Jiangsu has set the December silicon - manganese price at 5750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from November [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed significant gains on November 28, with lead futures performing strongly, closing up 1.09% at 17,090.00 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai market reported that Chihong Zn & Ge lead was priced between 17,000-17,060 CNY/ton, with a premium of 0-50 CNY/ton over the SHFE lead 2512 contract [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the domestic smelting sector is experiencing mixed changes, with unresolved issues regarding primary lead raw materials and a continued decline in treatment charges (TC) [1] - In Hebei, the supply of recycled lead is regionally tight, and the profitability of recycled lead smelting has weakened, leading to a decrease in operational willingness, with current recycled lead finished product inventories at historical lows [1] - Demand remains stable, with SMM reporting that the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery plants in Guangzhou is steady at 70.56%, and terminal demand in the lead market is showing stability, with battery plants purchasing on dips and a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere [1] Future Outlook - Southwest Futures indicates that the supply of lead concentrate is tight, and by-product revenues are supporting primary lead production. Strict regulations in northern regions are affecting the circulation of waste batteries, leading to slow growth in recycled lead output [1] - There is strong demand for energy storage batteries and a recovery in automotive battery replacement needs, although demand for electric bicycle batteries has shifted from strong to weak, with high dealer inventories [1] - Last week, social inventories of electrolytic lead increased by 2,800 tons, and the market is expected to experience fluctuations driven by supply disruptions and resilient demand, potentially leading to a wide-ranging oscillation pattern [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures are expected to continue the wide - range volatile pattern. The current supply has a seasonal contraction expectation, the demand remains optimistic, and the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts provides some support for the rubber price. The market is expected to show a volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to marginal changes such as Southeast Asian weather, domestic automobile and tire industry demand recovery, and inventory accumulation speed [2][4] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the Shanghai rubber futures have shown a range - bound consolidation trend, with the main contract 2601 fluctuating widely between 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [2] Macroeconomic Impact - The release of the weak US September non - farm payrolls data has cooled the global financial market risk appetite and increased the expectation of global demand shrinkage. Since the demand side of Shanghai rubber highly depends on tire exports, the weakening global economy will directly weaken the overseas tire market demand and drag down the fundamental support [2] Supply Situation - The Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the peak tapping season. The glue production in northeastern Thailand is steadily increasing, while the southern part has more rainfall, which intermittently hinders tapping operations. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas will gradually stop tapping in December, and although the domestic glue output accounts for less than 6% of the global total, the event will relieve the pressure on the whole latex market from the emotional and local supply sides [2] Inventory Status - The rubber inventories inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone have accumulated for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 452,600 tons in mid - November. However, the concentrated delivery of old rubber warehouse receipts last week pushed the inventory to a new low in recent years. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the weekly inventory of Shanghai rubber futures dropped to 78,675 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 79,463 tons, a 41.16% decline from the average of the past 3 years; the weekly registered warehouse receipts dropped to 39,600 tons, a significant weekly decrease of 68,870 tons, a 63.73% decline from the average of the past 3 years [3] Demand Situation - The core area of rubber demand is the tire industry, which is highly related to the automobile market. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The domestic heavy - truck market has maintained a high - growth rhythm, with sales of about 93,000 vehicles in October 2025, a year - on - year increase of 40%, and the cumulative sales from January to October reaching 916,000 vehicles, with the annual sales likely to exceed one million and even approach 1.1 million [3][4]

Group 1: Report Title and Main Topics - The report focuses on the silicon ferroalloy (silicon iron and ferromanganese) market, with titles "Silicon Iron: A Large Number of Warehouse Receipts Registered, Pay Attention to Position Risk" and "Ferromanganese: Cost Bottom Support, Wide - Range Fluctuation" [2][3] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Li Yafei (Investment Consultation Qualification Number: Z0021184), and the contact person is Jin Yuanyuan (Futures Qualification Number: F03134630) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures Market - Silicon iron 2603 contract closed at 5448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 316,787 and an open interest of 217,611; silicon iron 2605 contract closed at 5408 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, with a trading volume of 11,427 and an open interest of 33,842 - Ferromanganese 2601 contract closed at 5636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 120,736 and an open interest of 384,812; ferromanganese 2605 contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan, with a trading volume of 22,886 and an open interest of 117,466 [3] Spot Market - The summary price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 41.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.3 yuan; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 820 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 03 futures) was - 298 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot - futures price spread of ferromanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 116 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The near - far month price spread of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 was 40 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the near - far month price spread of ferromanganese 2601 - 2605 was - 62 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2603 - silicon iron 2603 was 204 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the cross - variety price spread of ferromanganese 2605 - silicon iron 2605 was 290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On November 25th, the price range of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan), in Qinghai was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and in Inner Mongolia was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1090 - 1120 US dollars/ton (down 10 - 20 US dollars) - The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing significant fear, as indicated by the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 7, suggesting a potential left-side trading opportunity if the trend does not reverse [2] - Institutions are likely to take a cautious approach in November, preferring to secure profits rather than take risks, leading to a high-low rotation strategy [2] - Global assets experienced a sharp decline due to tightening overseas liquidity, increasing divergence in AI, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - There is a strong willingness from policymakers to support the market, as evidenced by the recent issuance of multiple technology-related ETFs over the weekend [3]