Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: High Inventory Persists, Weak and Sideways Movement [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This month, PVC saw a rise followed by a fall. In March, the high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market is expected to be weak and sideways. The supply side is under pressure, and external demand's "rush to export" effect is weakening [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: In February, PVC opened low at 5040, then rose and led the chemical sector, reaching a four - month high of 5178 on February 4, a 10% increase from the previous low. After that, it fell back with the overall commodity market. After the holiday, due to continuous decline in calcium carbide prices and weakening export orders, the high inventory and weak cost led to the price dropping to the monthly low of 4758, with an amplitude of 400 points [3][9] - **Funds**: As of Thursday this week, the main contract's open interest was 1.22 million lots, at a high level for the same period [12] - **Basis**: As of Thursday this week, the V05 basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and industrial customers could consider selling hedging on price rallies [15] - **Calendar Spread**: As of Thursday this week, the V5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton. The "rush to export" effect weakened before the holiday, and social inventory hit new highs, causing the 5 - 9 spread to fall again [18] - **Valuation**: As of Thursday this week, the northwest chlor - alkali integration profit was 1092 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period; Shandong's chlor - alkali integration profit was - 722 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period. Recently, caustic soda spot prices rebounded from low levels. In February 2026, Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia's western industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (up 0.01 month - on - month), rising for two consecutive months [21][24] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: This week, PVC production reached 500,000 tons, a new high for the year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In March, only Jiyuan Fangsheng, Qilu Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Tosoh plan to shut down a total of 640,000 tons of production facilities, and supply is expected to remain under pressure [26] - **Domestic Demand - Real Estate**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate new construction/construction/completion/sales area were - 20.4%/ - 10.0%/ - 18.1%/ - 8.7% respectively. The sales area decline has widened for 8 consecutive months. Real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year changes in the price indices of newly built commercial residential buildings and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively. The month - on - month changes were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively, with continuous month - on - month declines [31][34] - **External Demand**: The Asian market price remained firm. China plans to cancel export tax rebates on April 1, and the "rush to export" drove up Asian prices. As of now, CIF India is at $720/ton, and CFR China Main Port is at $720/ton. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). This week, PVC producers' export orders increased by 2.75% from before the holiday, reaching 19,200 tons, and the cumulative undelivered orders remained around 224,000 tons. Overall orders have significantly declined from the previous high [37][41] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, PVC enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.85 million tons (a 290,000 - ton increase from before the holiday), rising for 9 consecutive weeks. The large - sample social inventory was 1.35 million tons, and it is expected to remain stable by the end of March according to seasonal patterns [44][47] 3. Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Weak and sideways. Pay attention to the V2605 contract in the range of 4600 - 5000 yuan/ton [6] - **Hedging**: The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial customers can sell on price rallies [6] - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage opportunities are currently available [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **豆粕期货**: The soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Brazil's soybean harvest is abundant and gradually hitting the market, leading to significant global supply pressure. Domestic downstream demand is weak, while high oil - mill operation rates and low breeding profits suppress consumption growth. However, Argentina's drought and the continuous reduction of domestic soybean meal inventory provide bottom support [6]. - **豆油期货**: The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation. As the oil - mill operation rate recovers, soybean oil supply is becoming looser, and terminal consumption is weak, with inventory pressure still existing. But the US biodiesel policy expectations and international crude oil price fluctuations support the soybean oil futures price [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 豆粕期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound stage. The 4th - week oil - mill soybean actual crushing volume is 2.1021 million tons, the operation rate is 57.83%, and the soybean meal inventory is 898,600 tons. Pay attention to South American weather, Brazil's new - crop arrival rhythm, and domestic breeding demand [6]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend last week, with a slightly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 was expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean meal futures price is currently in a sideways trend, with a strongly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak - range fluctuation, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [19][21][24] 豆油期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range fluctuation stage. The 125 oil - mills' actual soybean oil output in the 4th week is 39,940 tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory is 956,000 tons. Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward trend last week, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 was expected to continue a slightly bullish range - bound pattern [32]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 is expected to be in a high - level range - bound stage [32]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazil's premium. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [42][45][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, the disk valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist [1]. - For propylene, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will experience short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2511 closed at 4,220 yesterday with a - 1.12% daily increase, and 4,253 at night with a 0.78% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,083 yesterday with a - 1.33% daily increase, and 4,119 at night with a 0.88% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,007 yesterday with a - 1.62% daily increase, and 6,073 at night with a 1.10% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,052 yesterday with a - 1.59% daily increase, and 6,131 at night with a 1.31% increase [1]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2511 had a trading volume of 45,662 yesterday, a decrease of 21,719 from the previous day, and an open interest of 35,905, a decrease of 6,215; PG2512 had a trading volume of 50,907 yesterday, a decrease of 6,036 from the previous day, and an open interest of 82,176, an increase of 3,605; PL2601 had a trading volume of 9,061 yesterday, an increase of 502 from the previous day, and an open interest of 11,788, an increase of 277; PL2602 had a trading volume of 3,426 yesterday, an increase of 734 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,057, an increase of 222 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 280 yesterday, compared with 232 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 300 yesterday, compared with 262 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 153 yesterday, compared with 109 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 158 yesterday, compared with 84 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 118 yesterday, compared with 19 the previous day [1]. - **LPG Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared with 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared with 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, compared with 46.1% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market News - On October 17, 2025, the November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 447 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the November CP paper - cargo price of butane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the December CP paper - cargo price of propane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [5]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The maintenance start times range from 2023 to 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [6]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. The maintenance start times range from 2024 to 2025, and the end times vary, with some being undetermined [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - For PX and PTA, due to cost collapse and valuation decline, a monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, and holding long PX and short PTA positions is advised. PTA is entering a pattern of inventory accumulation as new installations are put into operation and polyester factories cut production [11]. - MEG's upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, MEG is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly, mainly influenced by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [12]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to high supply and a supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, fundamental pressure remains high [19]. - Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, affected by factors such as production volume, inventory, and oil price fluctuations [20]. - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel and weak demand, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - PP's spot price is falling, but low - price transactions are relatively good. The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound as the near - month contract subsidizes the premium. In the second half of the year, the pattern of high profits and high production will continue to affect it [43]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate, influenced by factors such as market supply and demand and inventory [47]. - Glass's original sheet price is stable, with most downstream enterprises purchasing on demand and the market in a wait - and - see state [53]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as spot price, inventory, and trading volume [56]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to speculative factors. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [61]. - Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the second half of the year, due to increased supply and weak demand, the high - profit state is difficult to maintain [64]. - Soda ash's spot market has little change, with weakening prices and general downstream demand [68]. - LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening, affected by factors such as futures prices, spreads, and industrial chain operating rates [73]. - PVC's trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit [85]. - Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market reaching a phased high [90]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly, affected by factors such as futures prices, freight rates, and exchange rates [92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PX's main contract closed at 6758, PTA's at 4790, and MEG's at 4323. The daily changes were 0.0%, 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 206, PTA (9 - 1) was 178, and MEG (9 - 1) was - 14 [5]. - **Market Overview**: PX prices fell on the 25th, following the decline of upstream crude oil. The downstream polyester market provided limited support. Some PTA producers considered reducing their operating rates. However, the increase in PTA production capacity in the second half of the year may support PX prices [8]. - **Market Outlook**: PX and PTA are recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG's upside space is limited, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. 2. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the rubber's main contract's daily - session closing price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,733 lots, and the open interest was 156,038 lots [14]. - **Industry News**: As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 128.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,225 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,768 lots and an open interest of 52,975 lots [17]. - **Industry News**: As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [17]. - **Market Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face fundamental pressure in the medium term [19]. 4. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, BU2507 closed at 3,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and BU2508 closed at 3,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% [21]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery's planned production volume was 148.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. As of June 23, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.0% [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [20]. 5. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, L2509 closed at 7,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The 09 - contract basis was 9, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 47 [35]. - **Market Situation**: The LLDPE market price partially declined. The futures market was weak, and the demand side was weak. Although there were some factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - **Market Outlook**: LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. 6. PP - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PP2509 closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The 09 - contract basis was 46, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 58 [40]. - **Market News**: The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the downstream demand was general, but low - price transactions were relatively good [40]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. 7. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [43]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price of caustic soda continued to fall due to the price cut of Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 - contract is facing delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound and face pressure in the second half of the year [43]. 8. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of pulp closed at 5,070 yuan/ton during the day session and 5,072 yuan/ton during the night session. The trading volume was 299,380 lots, and the open interest was 165,019 lots [48]. - **Industry News**: The futures main contract SP2509 fell by 2.01% to 5,070 yuan/ton. Downstream paper mills' procurement volume decreased year - on - year, and port inventory remained high [49]. - **Market Outlook**: Pulp is expected to fluctuate [47]. 9. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FG509 closed at 1,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20%. The 09 - contract basis was 995, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 1006 [54]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass original sheet price was generally stable, with some small fluctuations. Most downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [54]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass's original sheet price is stable [53]. 10. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of methanol closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 1,052,872 lots, and the open interest was 904,459 lots [57]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index decreased by 15.33. The port inventory increased significantly this week [59]. - **Market Outlook**: Methanol is expected to fluctuate [56]. 11. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of urea closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 551,401 lots, and the open interest was 255,236 lots [61]. - **Industry News**: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. In the short term, due to some off - market information, the market had a large - scale rebound [62]. - **Market Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face supply pressure and weak domestic demand in the medium term [61]. 12. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of styrene 2506 was 7,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan compared to the previous day. The EB - BZ spread was 1315 [64]. - **Market Situation**: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene is expected to increase significantly, and the demand is expected to be weak, leading to inventory accumulation and profit compression [66]. - **Market Outlook**: Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. 13. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, SA2509 closed at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The 09 - contract basis was 127, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 12 [70]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a weakening trend. The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand was general [70]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash's spot market has little change [68]. 14. LPG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PG2508 closed at 4,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, and PG2509 closed at 4,139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 - contract was 574 [75]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the expected price of Saudi CP propane decreased, and many PDH devices were under maintenance [82]. - **Market Outlook**: LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening [73]. 15. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,871 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the basis was - 121, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was - 73 [85]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, high production, and high inventory, with a weak trend [85]. - **Market Outlook**: PVC's trend is weak [85]. 16. Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FU2508 closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88%, and LU2508 closed at 3,716 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The spread between LU08 and FU08 was 717 [90]. - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [90]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, EC2506 closed at 1,885.3 points, a decrease of 0.21%, EC2508 closed at 1,740.2 points, a decrease of 3.07%, and EC2510 closed at 1,292.8 points, a decrease of 2.31% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly [92].