沙特正在大幅增加石油产量，这一策略既有助于特朗普政府实现降低油价的政治目标，也服务于沙特夺回市场份额和重新确立OPEC主导地位的 战略意图。 据媒体报道，OPEC预计将在周日（10月5日）的成员国会议上批准另一轮石油增产。本周，油价在会议前跌至四个月低点。 分析指出，沙特增产背后有多个战略考量：首先是夺回被巴西、圭亚那和美国页岩油生产商抢占的市场份额。其次是约束那些经常超出配额生产 的OPEC成员国。 OPEC重塑市场主导权的战略考量 据熟悉沙特和OPEC决策的人士透露，沙特的主要目标是重新夺回市场份额并重申卡特尔的主导地位，对特朗普的任何好处最终都是额外收获。 注：卡特尔指的是，通过协议共同控制产品产量和价格，旨在避免过度竞争并维护整体利益，例如石油输出国组织（OPEC）就是一 个著名的卡特尔例子。 今年以来，更多沙特原油供应帮助降低了美国汽油价格，这正是特朗普反复呼吁的目标。他曾在1月表示，将敦促沙特和其他OPEC成员国削减油 价。 沙特扩产助力特朗普经济议程 油价下跌正在缓解特朗普关税政策的通胀效应，并在家庭和企业日趋谨慎之际提振美国经济。据AAA数据，近期美国平均汽油价格为每加仑3.16 美元，较去年 ...

Group 1: Historical Capacity Adjustment Cases - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment: the Long Depression (1873-1896), the Great Depression (1929), and Japan's capacity reductions in the 1970s and 1990s, highlighting lessons for supply-demand rebalancing[6] - During the Long Depression, nominal wage growth was only 5.4% in the U.S., while industrial output increased over 300%, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance[10] - The Great Depression saw a shift from non-intervention to government intervention, with policies like the Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) and the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) implemented to stabilize production and demand[30][34] Group 2: Mechanisms of Supply-Demand Rebalancing - Capacity imbalances can create a negative feedback loop, potentially lasting 20-30 years if not controlled, as seen in the Long Depression and Japan's lost decades[1] - Government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances, as demonstrated by the U.S. response to the Great Depression compared to Japan's approach in the 1990s[2] - Successful rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies[3] Group 3: Economic and Social Implications - Large-scale supply-demand imbalances can present opportunities for improving labor wages and boosting domestic demand, facilitating a shift from production-oriented to consumption-oriented economies[4] - In the U.S., labor movements during the Long Depression led to wage increases, with wage growth eventually reaching 49% of nominal GDP growth by the late 19th century[26] - Japan's capacity adjustments in the 1970s relied on government-led initiatives, while the 1990s saw a shift towards market-driven solutions, resulting in slower recovery from imbalances[5]