港股通 证券研究报告 信义玻璃 (868 HK) 海外及汽车玻璃引领突围 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 玻璃 | 华泰研究 | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国香港 | 玻璃 | 目标价(港币): | 12.91 | | 公司公布 25 年业绩：25 年实现收入 208.3 亿元，同比-6.7%；实现归母净 | | 方晏荷 | 研究员 | | 利 27.3 亿元，同比-19.0%，但好于我们此前预期的 22.1 亿元，主要得益于 | | SAC No. S0570517080007 SFC No. BPW811 | fangyanhe@htsc.com +(86) 755 2266 0892 | | 汽车玻璃业务稳健增长及有效的成本费用管控。我们认为当前浮法玻璃行业 | | | | | 仍处于周期底部，后续需等待供给端持续收缩带来的供需再平衡。公司作为 | | 黄颖 | 研究员 | | 浮法玻璃龙头，具备显著的规模和成本优势，有望在行业复苏时展现较大盈 | | SAC No. S057052 ...

Summary of the Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with profitability hitting historical lows in 2025, leading to cash flow losses for some companies and a noticeable supply contraction in November and December [2][4]. - Current supply and demand in the float glass industry are slightly imbalanced, but effective capacity reduction can be achieved through cold repairs [2][4]. Key Insights - Approximately 10% of production lines are over 10 years old, and if these lines undergo cold repairs, capacity could decrease to around 136,000 tons, potentially achieving supply-demand balance [2][4]. - There are marginal improvements expected from policy changes, such as the coal-to-gas transition in the Shahe region and fuel system replacements under carbon neutrality policies, which may accelerate cold repairs or shutdowns [2][4]. - Historical data indicates that the typical restart time for cold-repaired lines is between 4 to 10 months, but the current average is nearly one year, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the industry [5][6]. Price Elasticity and Future Projections - If a short-term demand improvement similar to that of May to June 2023 occurs, glass prices could rise by 200 to 300 yuan per ton, indicating significant price elasticity [2][6]. - The industry has seen a supply reduction from 159,000 tons to approximately 150,000 tons, a decrease of about 6%, primarily due to prolonged low profitability [4][6]. Company-Specific Insights - For example, if the excess profit per heavy box of float glass for Qibin Group returns to 15 yuan, and the excess profit for photovoltaic glass is 2 yuan per square meter, the company's market value could reach 35 billion yuan, indicating substantial valuation potential [2][7]. - Qibin Group produces 100 million heavy boxes annually, which could translate to a profit increase of 1.5 billion yuan, while Xinyi Glass, producing 120-130 million heavy boxes, could see a profit increase of around 1.8 billion yuan [6][7]. Recommendations - It is advisable to focus on leading companies such as Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as changes in policy expectations and improved market sentiment may present investment opportunities [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [14] Core Insights - The glass industry has been experiencing continuous losses since 2025, leading to accelerated cold repairs. By the end of 2025, the production capacity decreased from approximately 160,000 tons/day to 151,000 tons/day, a decline of about 6%. The report anticipates that supply cold repairs will continue, gradually achieving a supply-demand rebalancing. If demand shows marginal improvement, glass prices are expected to exhibit elasticity and sustainability. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, which have significant cost advantages and sustained growth [3][8][12]. Current Situation: Profit Bottom, Accelerated Cold Repairs - The glass industry has faced significant pressure, with some companies experiencing cash flow losses. The average profitability level has been in continuous loss since 2025, with some companies expected to reach cash flow losses. The report highlights that the cold repair process has accelerated due to these pressures [23][26]. Supply Reduction Potential - The report identifies two main factors affecting glass cold repairs: profitability and furnace age. Currently, production lines over 10 years old account for a total of 18,800 tons/day. Excluding profitable lines from Xinyi and Qibin, as well as automotive and electronic glass lines, the potential cold repair capacity is around 15,000 tons/day. If all these lines are cold repaired, supply could drop to approximately 136,000 tons/day, representing a further 10% reduction from the end of 2025 capacity [9][35]. Supply Recovery Outlook - The report discusses the cautious approach companies may take regarding cold repairs due to high investment costs. For instance, the cold repair cost for an 800 tons/day glass production line typically exceeds 50 million, and upgrades could reach 100 million. The recovery period for investments is estimated to be 1.77 years under optimistic profit scenarios [10][43]. Price Elasticity Post Supply-Demand Rebalancing - The report suggests that under a scenario where real estate demand declines by 10% in 2026, the annual supply needs to decrease to about 145,000 tons/day, a reduction of 0.6 million tons/day from the end of 2025. The ongoing losses in the industry indicate that supply cold repairs will continue, potentially leading to a seasonal price recovery in 2026 [11][57]. Leading Companies: Cost Advantages and Growth - Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass are highlighted as industry leaders with significant profitability advantages. For instance, Qibin's gross profit per unit has been consistently higher than the industry average by 5 yuan/unit since 2020. The report also notes that Qibin has diversified into photovoltaic glass, enhancing its profitability [12][68].

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，佤邦地区1月进口量预计环比持平，锡加工费上调，冶炼环节利润修复 预期升温。需求端受锡价高位压制，下游企业补库意愿持续低迷，市场整体维持谨慎观望态势。展望后 市，尽管锡矿供应存在环比修复预期，但供应依旧偏紧，叠加地缘持续紧张与光伏抢出口支撑，沪锡价 格预计宽幅震荡。 （文华综合） 需求方面呈现结构性分化，传统应用领域如消费电子、马口铁等表现平淡，终端订单未见明显起色；但 新能源汽车轻量化部件及AI服务器用焊料等新兴场景带来的中长期需求前景，持续为锡价注入支撑逻 辑。当前下游加工企业开工率整体平稳，未现大幅波动。综合供需两端，锡市目前仍处于紧平衡状态， 但随着原料供应边际宽松，市场正从"紧缺预期"向"供需再平衡"过渡，价格上行弹性可能受到抑制。 近日贵金属暴跌，恐慌情绪蔓延至有色金属板块，沪锡夜盘大幅下挫，主力合约一度跌超12%，白盘市 场情绪修复，沪锡跌幅收窄至6.7%，报383340元/吨。此轮急跌的导火索在于凯文·沃什被正式提名为美 联储主席人选，其偏鹰派的政策倾向引发投资者对货币政策收紧和美元走强的担忧，风险偏好迅速降 温，带动整个有色金属板块承压。叠加此前沪锡持续上涨，已积累 ...

锡价行情拐点的出现需结合短期情绪与中期供需综合判断，短期1-4周内若想迎来拐点，需同时满足三 大条件，即美联储政策预期明朗化、宏观情绪企稳回落，缅甸复产遇阻、印尼配额调整等供应端扰动重 现，以及春节后下游企业复工复产、PCB、光伏等行业进入传统旺季带动现货成交改善；中期2-4个月 来看，拐点核心取决于供需再平衡节奏，二季度后缅甸、印尼新增产能将集中释放，预计全球锡矿供应 增加8%，供应紧张格局有望缓解，而AI服务器、光伏、新能源汽车三大新兴领域需求持续增长，将对 锡价形成长期支撑，若库存累库速度慢于预期或下游需求超预期爆发，锡价有望在二季度末迎来中期拐 点，结合市场分析共识，短期锡价调整或持续1-2个月，在35-38万元/吨区间震荡，中期二季度后有望重 新回归上行通道。 今日长江现货1#锡报价375250-379250元/吨，均价377250元/吨，较昨日暴跌15000，跌幅超10%，延续2 月2日以来的大幅下行态势；核心结论明确，锡价下跌系宏观流动性收紧、供应修复、技术破位与多头 踩踏共振所致，本交易日暴跌趋缓但下行未改，37万关口承压，短期3-4周、中期二季度有望迎来拐 点，供需呈现供应提速、需求淡季格局 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01% [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a rapid increase, with significant gains from the "three major oil companies," which boosted the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) by 1.92% [1] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - The chemical sector's strength is not solely attributed to oil price fluctuations; 2024 may be an optimal time for investors to position themselves in this sector [4] - The E Fund chemical industry ETF has surged over 24% in the last 25 trading days, reaching a new high since 2022, with net inflows exceeding 127 million yuan in the past 20 trading days [5] - The chemical industry has undergone a prolonged capacity digestion period over the past three years, with a significant supply pressure expected to ease by 2025 [8] Group 3 - The inventory cycle is shifting from "passive destocking" to "active restocking," with inventory levels in most segments at historical lows since Q3 2025 [11] - The central government's policy changes aim to prevent "involution-style" competition, establishing new operational principles for the industry [14] - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to return-oriented strategies, which is expected to elevate the industry's profit margins [14] Group 4 - The phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are experiencing a revaluation from "cyclical" to "resource" products, driven by the scarcity of phosphate rock and increasing demand from the lithium iron phosphate battery market [15][17] - The fluorochemical sector is witnessing a shift due to the implementation of third-generation refrigerant quotas, leading to a recovery from previous losses [19] Group 5 - The chemical sector is poised for valuation recovery, with the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) currently showing a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.09 and a dividend yield of 2.81% [20] - The overall net profit of the petrochemical industry index is expected to grow by 8.78% in 2026, indicating a stabilization in profitability [22] - The E Fund ETF offers a cost-effective investment option with a low fee structure of 0.2% per year, making it attractive for long-term investors [27] Group 6 - The chemical industry is entering a significant turning point, supported by macroeconomic recovery, stable oil prices, and supply-side reforms [27] - Each segment within the chemical industry is experiencing its unique narrative of "supply-demand rebalancing" and "value re-evaluation," indicating a promising outlook for the sector [27]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant turnaround driven by supply-side reforms, demand recovery, and the emergence of new productive forces, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 [31]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01% [1]. - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a rapid increase, with the "three major oil companies" showing significant gains, which in turn boosted the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) by 1.92% [1]. Group 2: Oil Price and Demand Forecast - As of January 22, the Brent crude oil benchmark price was $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [3]. - The International Energy Agency's report predicts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 930,000 barrels per day by 2026, exceeding previous forecasts [3]. Group 3: Chemical Sector Dynamics - The chemical sector has seen a net inflow of funds, with the E Fund ETF rising over 24% in the last 25 trading days, reaching a new high since 2022 [5]. - The industry has transitioned from a prolonged capacity digestion phase, with capital expenditure peaks established, signaling the end of a multi-year expansion cycle [8]. Group 4: Inventory and Consumption Trends - The inventory cycle is shifting from "passive destocking" to "active restocking," with inventory levels in many segments at historical lows due to recovering downstream consumption [11]. - Any minor demand fluctuations could lead to significant price volatility as the industry moves away from high inventory pressures [11]. Group 5: Policy Influence - The central government's policy shift aims to prevent "involutionary" competition, establishing new operational principles for the industry [14]. - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes strict control over new capacity and scientific regulation to prevent oversupply [14]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector's valuation recovery is supported by a combination of low valuations and an anticipated earnings rebound, with the chemical industry ETF currently having a PE ratio of 16.09 and a dividend yield of 2.81% [22]. - The overall net profit of the petrochemical industry index is expected to grow by 8.78% in 2026, indicating a stabilization in profitability [24]. Group 7: ETF Advantages - The E Fund chemical industry ETF (516570) offers a cost-effective investment option with a low fee structure of 0.2% per year, significantly lower than similar products [29]. - The ETF's portfolio includes high-growth material leaders and traditional refining giants, providing a balanced strategy to capture both beta and alpha returns [27].

Core Viewpoint - The global TV panel market is entering a new phase of structural adjustment on both supply and demand sides, with proactive supply-side contraction effectively countering the cyclical decline in brand procurement demand, leading to initial signs of price stabilization and recovery [1][3]. Supply Side - Panel manufacturers are adopting a dual strategy to respond to demand fluctuations: maintaining high capacity utilization to meet short-term concentrated orders while also implementing production control in response to traditional seasonal downturns, with the current production control efforts expected to exceed previous holiday adjustments [3][4]. - In December, the global high-generation line average utilization rate reached 82.4%, with the G10.5 generation line exceeding 90%, showing a significant year-on-year increase [3]. Demand Side - Brand procurement strategies are shifting from aggressive stocking to inventory digestion, resulting in a sequential decline in overall procurement scale, influenced by the conclusion of major sports event stocking cycles and seasonal slowdowns due to the Chinese New Year [1][3]. - Despite rising storage chip prices and export tax rebate policies providing some support, overall demand is experiencing seasonal contraction [1]. Price Trends - The 32-inch panel market is seeing balanced supply and demand, with December's average price stable and a slight expected increase of $1 in January; similar trends are observed for 50-inch and 55-inch panels, with prices expected to rise modestly [4]. - The large-size panel market is improving due to significant production control on the G10.5 generation line, with December prices stable and a forecasted mild increase in January [4]. Market Outlook - The current TV panel market is transitioning from a "demand-driven" model to one of "supply adjustment," with manufacturers' precise capacity control smoothing seasonal fluctuations and promoting a gradual recovery of the price system, laying a more rational foundation for the industry's future healthy development [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing rebalancing in the lithium battery industry, characterized by structural opportunities amidst price declines and cost fluctuations, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and technological evolution [3][5]. - The G20 Lithium Battery Summit highlighted discussions on operational challenges, including the need for supply assurance and price control, as well as the balance between price competition and technological innovation in the equipment sector [3][12][19]. Group 2 - The industry is transitioning from a phase of high supply and demand to a state of localized tightness with overall redundancy, indicating a gradual recovery in utilization rates and a projected increase in output capacity [5]. - In the passenger vehicle market, growth is expected to slow, with a shift towards larger battery capacities for new high-end models, while traditional fuel vehicles continue to decline [7]. - The commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy trucks, is experiencing demand driven by subsidies and replacement needs, with a cautious outlook on future penetration rates [9]. - The energy storage market is transitioning to a supply-driven model, with ongoing demand growth in various regions, although there are concerns about potential overexpansion risks [10]. Group 3 - In the lithium battery materials sector, there is a notable tension between supply constraints and price expectations, with key materials experiencing localized tightness and price volatility impacting cost structures [12][13]. - The positive outlook for cathode materials is driven by advancements in high-capacity lithium iron phosphate and the emergence of new materials, while an oversupply in graphite processing is leading to price declines [14][16]. - The electrolyte and additive sectors are facing challenges due to supply chain complexities, necessitating a balance between supply assurance and price transmission [15]. Group 4 - Equipment manufacturers are focusing on modular delivery and technological advantages to navigate ongoing price competition, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment in core technologies [20][21]. - The evolution of battery technology is marked by trends towards larger capacities and solid-state battery exploration, with a consensus on the need for sustained engineering innovation and investment [22][24]. - The industry is shifting from quantity expansion to a phase of demand reconstruction and rebalancing, where understanding end-user needs and building a sustainable industrial ecosystem are critical for navigating future volatility [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the previously persistent pattern of industry prosperity differentiation reversed. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry significantly rebounded, with the official manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone of 50.3%. This was mainly due to the continuous release of the effects of stable - growth policies and the pre - festival stocking activities. However, the core contradictions in the motor and chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industries became more prominent and showed different paths: the main pressure on the motor industry shifted from demand fluctuations to severe cost shocks, leading to a collective price increase in late December to early January; while the chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industry continued to face the structural pressure of "strong supply and weak demand", with low operating rates, weak product prices, and squeezed profit margins. Overall, the challenges in the industrial chain are evolving from general demand shortages to more structural cost reshaping and supply - demand rebalancing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Overview 3.1.1 Manufacturing - **Prosperity Overview**: In December, the prosperity of the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased significantly, while that of the petroleum and metal products industries declined [8] - **Demand Overview**: In December, the demand for the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased, while that for the petroleum and electronic information industries declined [8] - **Supply Overview**: In December, the supply of the chemical, automotive, textile - clothing, and pharmaceutical industries increased significantly, while that of the agricultural and sideline food, petroleum, and general equipment industries declined [8] - **Inventory Overview**: In December, the inventory of the chemical, motor equipment, and special equipment industries increased, while the non - metallic products, agricultural and sideline food, and metal products industries reduced their inventory [8] - **Export Sub - sectors**: In December, the exports of the non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and tobacco products industries declined significantly [8] - **Cost Sub - sectors**: In December, the costs of the textile - clothing, apparel, and cultural, educational, and sports goods industries declined significantly [8] - **Income Sub - sectors**: In December, the incomes of the textile - clothing, apparel, and wine, beverage, and refined tea industries declined significantly [8] - **Profit Sub - sectors**: In December, the profits of the tobacco products, printing, and reproduction media industries declined significantly [8] 3.1.2 Non - manufacturing - **Prosperity Overview**: In December, the prosperity of the civil engineering, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that of the postal, information, and accommodation industries declined [23] - **Demand Overview**: In December, the demand for the building installation and decoration, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that for the aviation, postal, and civil engineering industries declined [23] - **Supply Overview**: In December, the supply of the environmental and construction industries increased significantly, while that of the postal and civil engineering industries declined [23] - **Inventory Overview**: In December, the inventory of the construction industry increased, while the IT and aviation industries reduced their inventory [23] 3.2 Chemical Product Price Fluctuations Squeeze Mid - stream Profits - **Price Trends of Chemical Products**: In December, most major chemical products rose in price, with a few declining. PTA/PX prices continued to rise in December due to upstream cost support and low mid - stream operating rates; urea prices were supported by supply contraction from gas - head device maintenance and seasonal demand for compound fertilizer production; PVC price increases were driven by macro - policy expectations and commodity market sentiment; ethylene glycol prices were mainly affected by raw material cost support and market expectations of possible production conversion in EO/EG co - production plants. PP and PE prices declined due to supply - side pressure and weak downstream demand [29] - **Situation of the Textile and Chemical Fiber Industry Chain**: In December, the textile and chemical fiber industry chain showed a typical pattern of "hot upstream and cold downstream". The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and PTA continued to rise, but the price transmission to the mid - stream polyester segment was blocked. The profit margins of mid - stream textile manufacturing enterprises were severely squeezed. The textile and clothing, apparel industries have entered the production off - season, and production cuts may be a future direction. The comprehensive operating rate of the polyester industry has been declining since December, and it is expected to drop by more than 5 percentage points in January. High upstream raw material inventories and falling operating rates may suppress the profit margins of the entire industrial chain [29][30][31] 3.3 Real Estate Downstream Consumption Warms Up - **Market Performance**: From November to December 2025, the downstream real estate sales in China showed signs of a phased recovery. The new - home market saw an increase in new supply and a decrease in inventory in November, and the transaction area continued to grow in December. The second - hand housing market also had significant month - on - month growth in transaction areas in November and December. Nationally, the unsold commercial housing area decreased in November [39] - **Reasons for the Recovery**: The policy environment has been continuously optimized, releasing demand; real - estate developers actively promoted projects to meet annual performance targets; the market showed structural differentiation, with core cities and high - quality projects acting as stabilizers. However, the current recovery is a month - on - month improvement based on a deep year - on - year adjustment, and most transaction data still have large year - on - year declines, with housing prices still in a downward trend. The market is still in the bottom - building stage of the transformation from the old to the new model [39][40]