Group 1 - The electric commercial truck market, particularly electric heavy-duty trucks (eHDT), is experiencing rapid growth, which may offset the slowdown in the electric passenger vehicle market [1][2][3] - In October 2025, the sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in China surged by 144% year-on-year, with a penetration rate reaching approximately 29% [1][3] - The penetration rate for electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to rise to 35% by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] Group 2 - The electric light-duty truck (eLDT) market is also on the rise, with a year-to-date sales increase of 92% and a 40% year-on-year growth in October 2025 [7] - The penetration rate for electric light-duty trucks is projected to increase from 10% in 2025 to 38% by 2027, with corresponding battery demand expected to grow from 30 GWh to 150 GWh [7] Group 3 - CATL is positioned to benefit significantly from the electrification of trucks, with expectations of a 23% year-on-year growth in its electric vehicle battery business by 2026 [10] - The acceleration of truck electrification is anticipated to mitigate the negative impacts of slowing growth in the electric passenger vehicle sector for CATL [10] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for CATL, with a target price of 490.00 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 31% from the current stock price [10]

Core Insights - The focus of the market has shifted towards the electrification of commercial trucks, particularly electric heavy-duty trucks (eHDT) and light-duty trucks (eLDT), which are experiencing rapid growth, potentially offsetting the slowdown in the passenger vehicle market [1][10] Group 1: Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks (eHDT) - The electric heavy-duty truck market in China saw a remarkable year-on-year sales increase of 144% in October 2025, with a penetration rate reaching approximately 29% [3][10] - Projections indicate that the penetration rate for electric heavy-duty trucks will rise to 35% by 2026, presenting a lucrative opportunity for battery suppliers [6][10] Group 2: Electric Light-Duty Trucks (eLDT) - The electric light-duty truck market is also on a growth trajectory, with a year-on-year sales increase of 40% in October 2025, and a cumulative sales growth of 92% year-to-date [7] - Forecasts suggest that the penetration rate for electric light-duty trucks will increase from 10% in 2025 to 38% by 2027, with corresponding battery demand expected to surge from 30 GWh in 2025 to 150 GWh by 2027 [7][10] Group 3: Impact on CATL - CATL is positioned to benefit significantly from the electrification trend in trucks, with expectations of a 23% year-on-year growth in its electric vehicle battery business by 2026 [10] - This growth outlook supports Morgan Stanley's "overweight" rating for CATL, with a target price of 490.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current stock price [10]