市场的目光过多聚焦于增长放缓的电动乘用车市场，却可能忽略了正在爆发的"第二增长曲线"——商用卡车的电动化。 11月27日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，电动重卡（eHDT）和轻卡（eLDT）市场正以惊人的速度扩 张，这将有效对冲乘用车市场的疲软，并成为宁德时代未来几年业务增长的核心支柱。 大摩表示，卡车电动化，尤其是重卡领域，正展现出远超乘用车的增长爆发力。2025年10月，中国电动重卡销量同比飙升 144%，渗透率已高达29%。 同时，电动轻卡市场同样不容小觑，其渗透率预计将从2025年的10%快速提升至2027年的38%，对应的电池需求将从30 GWh猛增至150 GWh，这是一个确定性极高的增量市场。 基于卡车市场的强劲表现，大摩报告预测，宁德时代2026年电动汽车电池业务将实现23%的同比增长。这一强劲预期是支 撑其"增持"评级和31%上涨空间的关键逻辑。 重卡电动化势头凶猛：渗透率逼近30%，明年或达35% 数据不会说谎，电动重卡市场正在经历一轮势不可挡的增长。 根据大摩的报告数据，2025年10月，中国电动重卡的月度销量同比实现了144%的惊人增长。 大摩认为，更值得关注的是其渗透率 ...

Core Insights - The focus of the market has shifted towards the electrification of commercial trucks, particularly electric heavy-duty trucks (eHDT) and light-duty trucks (eLDT), which are experiencing rapid growth, potentially offsetting the slowdown in the passenger vehicle market [1][10] Group 1: Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks (eHDT) - The electric heavy-duty truck market in China saw a remarkable year-on-year sales increase of 144% in October 2025, with a penetration rate reaching approximately 29% [3][10] - Projections indicate that the penetration rate for electric heavy-duty trucks will rise to 35% by 2026, presenting a lucrative opportunity for battery suppliers [6][10] Group 2: Electric Light-Duty Trucks (eLDT) - The electric light-duty truck market is also on a growth trajectory, with a year-on-year sales increase of 40% in October 2025, and a cumulative sales growth of 92% year-to-date [7] - Forecasts suggest that the penetration rate for electric light-duty trucks will increase from 10% in 2025 to 38% by 2027, with corresponding battery demand expected to surge from 30 GWh in 2025 to 150 GWh by 2027 [7][10] Group 3: Impact on CATL - CATL is positioned to benefit significantly from the electrification trend in trucks, with expectations of a 23% year-on-year growth in its electric vehicle battery business by 2026 [10] - This growth outlook supports Morgan Stanley's "overweight" rating for CATL, with a target price of 490.00 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current stock price [10]