Report Information - Report title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Author: Chen Naixuan [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views 利多因素 - Macro sentiment and external market linkages boost the market, with bullish sentiment prevailing [4]. - Nickel ore prices are rising, the market tends to support prices, and supply - demand expectations support price recovery [4]. 利空因素 - The demand side remains weak, especially the demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations, and the stainless - steel market enters the off - season [4]. - The market lacks a clear unilateral driver, and capital sentiment fluctuates greatly, with the risk of following the trend to build positions [4]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to observe the implementation of Indonesia's quota policy and market fluctuations and avoid blind position - building [4]. Data Summary Nickel Futures and Spot Prices - The latest price of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 142,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 180 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.13% [5]. - The latest price of LME Nickel 3M is 18,100 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 308 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 0.70% [5]. - The latest price of Jinchuan Nickel is 150,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.60% [5]. Stainless - Steel Futures Prices - The latest price of Stainless - Steel Main Contract is 14,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 345 yuan and an increase rate of 2% [5]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel is 63,510 tons, an increase of 2,464 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - LME nickel inventory is 284,496 tons, a decrease of 168 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons compared with the previous period [6]. Chart Information Nickel - Related Charts - Nickel internal and external market trends [7] - Nickel spot average price [8] - China's refined nickel monthly output seasonality [11] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply including imports seasonality [11] - Philippines laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) [12] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality [12] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) [13] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price [13] - Domestic social inventory: nickel plate + nickel bean seasonality [14] - LME nickel inventory seasonality [14] - China's nickel iron monthly output seasonality [15] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly output seasonality [16] Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Charts - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price [17][18] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium [19][20] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit rate seasonality [21] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality [21] - China's nickel sulfate monthly output (metal tons) [22] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality [22] Stainless - Steel - Related Charts - Stainless - steel main contract [10] - China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil profit rate seasonality [24] - Stainless - steel monthly output seasonality [25][26] - Stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27]

Core Market Situation - The spot nickel price in the Yangtze River market surged by 3,700 yuan, averaging 147,550 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai nickel futures contract rose over 4% [1] - The current market dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between the strong expectations of policy tightening in Indonesia and the weak reality of high global inventories, leading to significant price volatility [1] Key Drivers - The recent price increase is driven by a resonance of macroeconomic and industrial policy expectations, particularly concerning Indonesia's nickel supply quotas [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, high inventories in both LME and domestic markets act as a ceiling on price increases, creating a cautious market outlook regarding the actual impact of any favorable policies [1] Industry Fundamentals - The supply-demand structure shows significant differentiation, with domestic refined nickel production increasing while Indonesian nickel pig iron production slightly declines [2] - Short-term demand is under pressure, particularly in the new energy battery materials sector, but robust demand from the stainless steel sector, supported by manufacturing recovery and consumption promotion policies, provides a solid foundation [2] Market Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range between 140,000 and 150,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the interplay of policy expectations and inventory pressures [2] - Investors are advised to remain rational in a volatile environment, focusing on price fluctuation opportunities and signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals [2]