本周菲律宾镍矿价格暂稳。菲律宾到中国菲律宾红土镍矿NI1.3%CIF价格为41~43美元/湿吨， NI1.4%CIF价格为49~51美元/湿吨，NI1.5%CIF价格为56~58美元/湿吨。本周菲律宾所有装点均有降 雨，装运条件仍不理想。不过，随着发运量进入高峰，镍矿港口库存持续增加，供应充足。 沪镍窄幅波动，主力合约收跌0.3%，报119830元/吨。7月国内镍矿、镍铁与精炼镍进口显著提升，国内 镍元素供应显著上升。美联储7月纪要释放鹰派信号，海外风偏持续收缩，基本面和宏观面均缺乏明显 驱动，沪镍延续震荡格局。 对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，当前镍产业矛盾集中于不锈钢市场表现，"不锈钢-镍矿-一级镍"的压力 传导路径决定了一级镍的成本中枢位置，近期不锈钢在修复至13000附近后持续回调，市场情绪再度悲 观，我们判断库存和供给压力仍在。展望后市，不锈钢传统旺季需求表现有待观察，主要关注龙头钢厂 出货节奏，镍价短期缺乏驱动，整体维持偏弱判断。 近期镍价小幅下跌，下游企业入场采购有所增加，精炼镍现货交投尚可。各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水多持 稳，金川及俄镍资源现货升贴水小幅上涨。目前不锈钢下游需求仍偏弱，虽然国内不锈钢企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global primary nickel supply will continue to increase, with an overall surplus, and the nickel price center will shift downward. The lower limit of the nickel price will approach the MHP integrated cost, and the upper limit will approach the RKEF nickel matte integrated cost. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will trade between 110,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [6][12][13]. - The demand growth rate of stainless steel has declined, mainly due to the suppression of overseas tariff barriers on the production and sales of stainless steel end - products. The supply side has full elasticity, the over - capacity contradiction remains unchanged, and the cost reduction opens up the downward space for stainless steel. It is estimated that the stainless steel will oscillate between 12,200 - 13,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Persistent Excess Pattern of Primary Nickel - **Global Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Persistent Excess Situation** - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The consumption in the stainless steel and alloy industries had a relatively high growth rate. There was a slight inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. - For the second half of 2025, both supply and demand are expected to grow. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is expected to be 150,000 tons [30]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Still in Excess** - In the first half of 2025, China's primary nickel total supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with inventory accumulation of 120,000 tons. - In 2025, it is expected to maintain a double - growth in supply and demand. The annual primary nickel total supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [33][34]. 2. Primary Nickel Supply - **Collision between Traditional and Emerging Nickel Supply** - Since 2022, some high - cost nickel mines globally have reduced or stopped production, with a total reduction capacity of 360,000 tons of metal. In 2024, there were many reduction and shutdown projects in Australia and other regions. - The main variables in global primary nickel supply come from emerging nickel suppliers. Indonesia's nickel - iron new capacity is the largest part of the global primary nickel supply increment, and intermediate products such as wet - process MHP and high - grade nickel matte have a direct impact on refined nickel supply and demand [37][38][39]. - **Gradual Growth of Nickel Intermediate Product Supply** - In 2024, some new nickel wet - process and high - ice nickel capacities were put into production, and there are still more than 500,000 tons of wet - process under - construction and planned capacities. However, the actual production situation needs continuous tracking due to uncertainties in wet - process capacity production and the decline in the market share of ternary batteries [45]. - **China's Refined Nickel Production Remains at a High Level** - From January to May 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative production was 175,834 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.91%. The import and export volume of refined nickel also increased significantly [59]. 3. Refined Nickel Consumption - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel's Consumption of Pure Nickel Remains Almost Zero** - Due to the large losses in the self - dissolution of nickel beans into sulfuric acid nickel in recent years, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector has declined rapidly, and currently, nickel beans are basically not used to produce sulfuric acid nickel [67]. - **Growth in Electroplating and Stainless Steel Industries** - The downstream consumption of refined nickel is mainly concentrated in alloy, stainless steel, and electroplating industries, with alloy consumption accounting for about 55%, stainless steel about 20%, and electroplating about 15%. The consumption of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel, electroplating, and alloy industries increased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and it is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year [10][68][71]. 4. Stainless Steel Sector - **Stainless Steel Capacity Statistics** - In 2025, China plans to add about 5.56 million tons of new stainless steel capacity, and Indonesia plans to add 1 million tons. However, due to many influencing factors and poor industry profit conditions, the future production progress is expected to be relatively slow [80]. - **Stainless Steel Production Statistics** - As of June 2025, the cumulative production of national stainless steel crude steel was 19.8466 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. It is expected that the annual production of stainless steel crude steel will be about 41.5 million tons [85]. - **Stainless Steel Import and Export Data Statistics** - From January to May 2025, China's stainless steel imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year. The net export volume increased significantly. The import decline was mainly due to the reduction of cold - rolled coil imports from Indonesia, and the export decline in May was mainly affected by the uncertainty of global tariff policies [98]. - **Analysis of Stainless Steel Terminal Industry Consumption** - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main consumption boost factor [104]. - **Statistics of Stainless Steel Profit Level** - As of early July 2025, the profit level of the stainless steel industry was low, and most enterprises faced great cost pressure [127]. - **Difficulty in Changing the Excess Supply - Demand Pattern of Stainless Steel** - Since 2022, the supply and demand of stainless steel have been in a state of excess. The subsequent production of stainless steel capacity to be put into production may not meet expectations, and the actual demand may be less than expected due to the uncertainty of global trade [133]. 5. Nickel - Stainless Steel Industry Chain Inventory - **Continuous Increase in Refined Nickel Inventory** - From December 27, 2024, to June 27, 2025, the global refined nickel visible inventory increased by 32,099 tons to 240,885 tons, and part of the inventory was converted into invisible inventory [11][134]. - **Relatively Stable Nickel - Iron Inventory** - Affected by the seasonality of Philippine nickel ore exports, China's nickel ore port inventory is at a medium level in the same period of history, and the nickel - iron spot inventory is at a relatively high position compared with the same period last year [139]. - **Summary of Stainless Steel Social Inventory and Futures Warehouse Receipt Data** - As of July 3, 2025, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel may remain at a high level in the third quarter and gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. The futures warehouse receipt decreased after reaching the highest level in March - early April, and the overall stainless steel inventory pressure still exists [141][142].

镍&不锈钢：持续底部磨底 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 管理 | 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依据采购 | 3 | | | | 提前采购锁 ...

镍&不锈钢：当前价格接近支撑线，基本面仍然承压 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 | 远月沪镍合约 | ...

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association has urged the government to delay the upcoming increase in royalties until the LME nickel price reaches $17,000 per ton [2] - LME nickel prices have dropped over 2% since early April, currently around $15,500 per ton, with the last time prices hit $17,000 being in mid-October 2024 due to mining quota approval delays [2] - Increased LME nickel inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices [3] Exports - Nickel ore exports from the Philippines increased by 21% year-on-year from January to February 2025 [4] - The rainy season in southern Philippines has ended, leading to expected increases in medium-grade nickel ore shipments from the Surigao mine [5] Imports - In March, China imported 1,535,232.97 tons of nickel ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 34.54% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06% [6] - The Philippines remains the largest supplier, with March imports of nickel ore and concentrates at 1,205,652.098 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.51% [6] - China's nickel pig iron imports in March reached 1,013,259.492 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.55% and a year-on-year increase of 60.58% [6] - Indonesia is the largest supplier of nickel pig iron, with March imports at 989,055.225 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.58% and a year-on-year increase of 60.70% [6] Consumption - Global nickel consumption increased by 11% year-on-year in February [7] Production - A major nickel mine operated by GEM in Sulawesi, Indonesia, has halted production and is under review due to safety concerns following a landslide [9] - The mine has advanced smelting facilities with an annual nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons, capable of producing 50,000 tons of high-nickel precursor materials [9] - Indonesia's nickel production surged last year, leading to the closure of several large mines in other regions, including Glencore's Koniambo mine in New Caledonia, which saw a 48% decline in production in 2024 and a continued 50% decline in early 2025 due to ongoing unrest [9] Industry Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI in China for March was reported at 50.5%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [8] - LG Energy Solution has exited an $8.45 billion electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, shifting focus to a joint venture with Hyundai, highlighting the dynamic changes in the global battery market amid demand uncertainty and tightening profits [8]