Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a significant stock price increase of 22% yesterday and continued to rise over 5% in the afternoon today, currently trading at 1.83 HKD with a trading volume of 32.1364 million HKD [2] - Market concerns regarding nickel supply have been heightened due to recent events in Indonesia, although the core conflict is not directly affecting major nickel production areas [2] - Futures analysis indicates that there is an expectation of overall nickel supply surplus by 2025, with improvements in Indonesian nickel ore supply but ongoing policy disruptions [2] Group 2 - Nickel prices are currently supported by emotional market sentiment, but this upward trend may lack sustainability unless the conflict escalates to impact major production areas [2] - Domestic stainless steel demand is relatively strong, providing support for nickel pig iron prices, which are expected to stabilize in the short term [2]

Group 1 - Nickel prices in Shanghai experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing down by 0.3% at 119,830 yuan per ton, amid increased domestic supply of nickel elements due to significant rises in imports of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel in July [1] - The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, with CIF prices for NI1.3% at $41-$43 per wet ton, NI1.4% at $49-$51 per wet ton, and NI1.5% at $56-$58 per wet ton, despite unfavorable shipping conditions due to rain [1] - Downstream enterprises have increased procurement as nickel prices slightly declined, with stable trading in refined nickel spot markets, while stainless steel demand remains weak despite production cuts in June and July [1] Group 2 - The current contradictions in the nickel industry are concentrated in the stainless steel market, with the cost transmission path from "stainless steel-nickel ore-primary nickel" determining the cost center for primary nickel [2] - After a recovery to around 13,000, stainless steel prices have continued to decline, leading to renewed pessimism in market sentiment, with ongoing inventory and supply pressures [2] - Future demand for stainless steel during the traditional peak season remains uncertain, with a focus on the shipping pace of leading steel mills, and nickel prices are expected to lack short-term drivers, maintaining a weak outlook overall [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global primary nickel supply will continue to increase, with an overall surplus, and the nickel price center will shift downward. The lower limit of the nickel price will approach the MHP integrated cost, and the upper limit will approach the RKEF nickel matte integrated cost. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will trade between 110,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025 [6][12][13]. - The demand growth rate of stainless steel has declined, mainly due to the suppression of overseas tariff barriers on the production and sales of stainless steel end - products. The supply side has full elasticity, the over - capacity contradiction remains unchanged, and the cost reduction opens up the downward space for stainless steel. It is estimated that the stainless steel will oscillate between 12,200 - 13,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Persistent Excess Pattern of Primary Nickel - **Global Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Persistent Excess Situation** - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The consumption in the stainless steel and alloy industries had a relatively high growth rate. There was a slight inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. - For the second half of 2025, both supply and demand are expected to grow. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is expected to be 150,000 tons [30]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Still in Excess** - In the first half of 2025, China's primary nickel total supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with inventory accumulation of 120,000 tons. - In 2025, it is expected to maintain a double - growth in supply and demand. The annual primary nickel total supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [33][34]. 2. Primary Nickel Supply - **Collision between Traditional and Emerging Nickel Supply** - Since 2022, some high - cost nickel mines globally have reduced or stopped production, with a total reduction capacity of 360,000 tons of metal. In 2024, there were many reduction and shutdown projects in Australia and other regions. - The main variables in global primary nickel supply come from emerging nickel suppliers. Indonesia's nickel - iron new capacity is the largest part of the global primary nickel supply increment, and intermediate products such as wet - process MHP and high - grade nickel matte have a direct impact on refined nickel supply and demand [37][38][39]. - **Gradual Growth of Nickel Intermediate Product Supply** - In 2024, some new nickel wet - process and high - ice nickel capacities were put into production, and there are still more than 500,000 tons of wet - process under - construction and planned capacities. However, the actual production situation needs continuous tracking due to uncertainties in wet - process capacity production and the decline in the market share of ternary batteries [45]. - **China's Refined Nickel Production Remains at a High Level** - From January to May 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative production was 175,834 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.91%. The import and export volume of refined nickel also increased significantly [59]. 3. Refined Nickel Consumption - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel's Consumption of Pure Nickel Remains Almost Zero** - Due to the large losses in the self - dissolution of nickel beans into sulfuric acid nickel in recent years, the consumption of refined nickel in the new energy sector has declined rapidly, and currently, nickel beans are basically not used to produce sulfuric acid nickel [67]. - **Growth in Electroplating and Stainless Steel Industries** - The downstream consumption of refined nickel is mainly concentrated in alloy, stainless steel, and electroplating industries, with alloy consumption accounting for about 55%, stainless steel about 20%, and electroplating about 15%. The consumption of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel, electroplating, and alloy industries increased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and it is expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year [10][68][71]. 4. Stainless Steel Sector - **Stainless Steel Capacity Statistics** - In 2025, China plans to add about 5.56 million tons of new stainless steel capacity, and Indonesia plans to add 1 million tons. However, due to many influencing factors and poor industry profit conditions, the future production progress is expected to be relatively slow [80]. - **Stainless Steel Production Statistics** - As of June 2025, the cumulative production of national stainless steel crude steel was 19.8466 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. It is expected that the annual production of stainless steel crude steel will be about 41.5 million tons [85]. - **Stainless Steel Import and Export Data Statistics** - From January to May 2025, China's stainless steel imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year. The net export volume increased significantly. The import decline was mainly due to the reduction of cold - rolled coil imports from Indonesia, and the export decline in May was mainly affected by the uncertainty of global tariff policies [98]. - **Analysis of Stainless Steel Terminal Industry Consumption** - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main consumption boost factor [104]. - **Statistics of Stainless Steel Profit Level** - As of early July 2025, the profit level of the stainless steel industry was low, and most enterprises faced great cost pressure [127]. - **Difficulty in Changing the Excess Supply - Demand Pattern of Stainless Steel** - Since 2022, the supply and demand of stainless steel have been in a state of excess. The subsequent production of stainless steel capacity to be put into production may not meet expectations, and the actual demand may be less than expected due to the uncertainty of global trade [133]. 5. Nickel - Stainless Steel Industry Chain Inventory - **Continuous Increase in Refined Nickel Inventory** - From December 27, 2024, to June 27, 2025, the global refined nickel visible inventory increased by 32,099 tons to 240,885 tons, and part of the inventory was converted into invisible inventory [11][134]. - **Relatively Stable Nickel - Iron Inventory** - Affected by the seasonality of Philippine nickel ore exports, China's nickel ore port inventory is at a medium level in the same period of history, and the nickel - iron spot inventory is at a relatively high position compared with the same period last year [139]. - **Summary of Stainless Steel Social Inventory and Futures Warehouse Receipt Data** - As of July 3, 2025, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel may remain at a high level in the third quarter and gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. The futures warehouse receipt decreased after reaching the highest level in March - early April, and the overall stainless steel inventory pressure still exists [141][142].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel continues to oscillate at the bottom, and the rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines has been disproven. Currently, high - priced ore and weak demand are continuously squeezing the profits of the intermediate links, making it difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and there is no obvious trend of production reduction even though the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte is lower than that of ferronickel. The profit pressure is high, and the purchasing power of upstream and downstream is weak, so short - term contradictions still exist. In the stainless steel sector, the demand is sluggish during the off - season, and the stainless steel price continues to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly, and the production is still based on sales. Future attention should be paid to spot trading and macro - news [3] - There are some positive factors such as some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts and the support of nickel ore prices at the cost end. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, weak demand for precursors in the new energy chain, and the disproven rumor of a mining ban in the Philippines [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract and 50% for selling call options. When worried about the rise in raw material prices, buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs, it can sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2] 2. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 119,920 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 120,120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 120,260 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars or 0.05% from the previous day. The trading volume is 86,947 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 82,485 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 21,765 tons, up 724 tons or 3.44%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 24.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel continuous - three contract is 12,535 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The trading volume is 130,382 lots, unchanged; the open interest is 180,346 lots, unchanged; the warehouse receipt volume is 118,383 tons, down 602 tons or 0.51%; the basis of the main contract is 585 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.63% [6] 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,383 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared to the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 197,538 tons, a decrease of 96 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 998.8 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, an increase of 1,907.5 tons [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current price of nickel and stainless steel is close to the support line, and the fundamentals remain under pressure. The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore still exists, but high - priced ore and weak demand are squeezing the profits of the intermediate links. The price of ferronickel is still on a downward trend, and there is no obvious production reduction trend for high - grade nickel matte. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, and the destocking is slow. The demand recovery of nickel salts in the new energy chain is slow, and the current situation is still based on sales - driven production. Attention should be paid to spot transaction volume and macro - news for future trends [1][3] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts, cost - side support from nickel ore prices, and the resumption of price limits by Tsingshan. Negative factors include slow destocking of stainless steel inventory and the entry of stainless steel into the traditional off - season [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Selling call options with a 50% hedging ratio is also an option. For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan. Other strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options [2] 2. Market Analysis of Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel Market**: The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore exists, but it is difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and the profitability of high - grade nickel matte is under pressure. The short - term contradiction remains due to weak upstream and downstream procurement [3] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, some traders are selling at discounted prices, and the destocking is slow. After Tsingshan's price limit regulation, the price has a stabilizing trend [3] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of Shanghai nickel continuous contracts 1 - 3 and LME nickel 3M all decreased, with a decline of about 1.48%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.34%. The basis of the main contract increased by 29.7% [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,585 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless steel continuous contracts 1 - 3 decreased slightly. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.27%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 6.56% [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory decreased by 2,178 tons to 39,375 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons to 197,634 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 15.8 tons to 983.3 tons, and ferronickel inventory increased by 1,907.5 tons to 31,462 tons [7]

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association has urged the government to delay the upcoming increase in royalties until the LME nickel price reaches $17,000 per ton [2] - LME nickel prices have dropped over 2% since early April, currently around $15,500 per ton, with the last time prices hit $17,000 being in mid-October 2024 due to mining quota approval delays [2] - Increased LME nickel inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices [3] Exports - Nickel ore exports from the Philippines increased by 21% year-on-year from January to February 2025 [4] - The rainy season in southern Philippines has ended, leading to expected increases in medium-grade nickel ore shipments from the Surigao mine [5] Imports - In March, China imported 1,535,232.97 tons of nickel ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 34.54% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06% [6] - The Philippines remains the largest supplier, with March imports of nickel ore and concentrates at 1,205,652.098 tons, a month-on-month increase of 63.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.51% [6] - China's nickel pig iron imports in March reached 1,013,259.492 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.55% and a year-on-year increase of 60.58% [6] - Indonesia is the largest supplier of nickel pig iron, with March imports at 989,055.225 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.58% and a year-on-year increase of 60.70% [6] Consumption - Global nickel consumption increased by 11% year-on-year in February [7] Production - A major nickel mine operated by GEM in Sulawesi, Indonesia, has halted production and is under review due to safety concerns following a landslide [9] - The mine has advanced smelting facilities with an annual nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons, capable of producing 50,000 tons of high-nickel precursor materials [9] - Indonesia's nickel production surged last year, leading to the closure of several large mines in other regions, including Glencore's Koniambo mine in New Caledonia, which saw a 48% decline in production in 2024 and a continued 50% decline in early 2025 due to ongoing unrest [9] Industry Dynamics - The manufacturing PMI in China for March was reported at 50.5%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [8] - LG Energy Solution has exited an $8.45 billion electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, shifting focus to a joint venture with Hyundai, highlighting the dynamic changes in the global battery market amid demand uncertainty and tightening profits [8]