Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the United States regarding tariffs, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][11]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - The trade volume between the EU and the US is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [2]. - A 90-day negotiation period is deemed insufficient for a detailed agreement, with the goal being a principle agreement to avoid escalating into a trade war [2][7]. - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with key US officials to reach an agreement by July 9 [3]. Group 2: Current Tariffs and Potential Outcomes - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [4]. - If negotiations do not yield results by July 9, President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods [4]. - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [4]. Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts suggest that while a principle framework agreement may be achievable, detailed negotiations will take significantly longer due to differing economic structures and interests among EU member states [8][9]. - The EU's internal diversity complicates reaching a unified stance on trade terms with the US, especially given varying levels of dependence on US trade among member countries [9]. Group 4: EU's Countermeasures - The EU has prepared a toolbox of countermeasures, including a decision to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports, with a potential increase to 50% [12]. - A draft proposal for tariffs on €95 billion worth of US goods, including Boeing aircraft and American automobiles, is also in progress [12]. - The EU may utilize its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures such as restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [13].

Group 1: Core Views - Experts believe there is a high likelihood of reaching a principle framework agreement between the US and EU in the short term, but detailed negotiations and implementation will take more time [1][5] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to reach a principle agreement on tariffs with the US, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][6] - The trade volume between the US and EU is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [1] Group 2: Current Negotiation Status - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with US officials, aiming to reach an agreement by July 9 [3] - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [3] - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [3] Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts indicate that while a principle agreement may be easily reached, detailed negotiations will likely take several months due to deeper underlying conflicts [5] - The economic complementarity between the US and EU is low, making it difficult to find balanced trade solutions [5] - Different EU member states have varying trade structures and interests, complicating the negotiation process [5] Group 4: EU's Contingency Plans - The EU is preparing for the possibility of not reaching a satisfactory agreement and is considering all necessary measures to defend European interests [6][7] - The EU has previously decided to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports as a response to US tariffs, with a potential plan for an additional €95 billion in tariffs on products like Boeing aircraft and American cars [7] - The EU has tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures like restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [7]