● 本报记者 马爽 在本轮国际原油期货价格震荡回落过程中，市场做多力量逐渐萎缩。美国商品期货交易委员会 （CFTC）最新发布的数据显示，截至2025年8月5日，WTI原油期货非商业净多持仓量平均维持在 141829张，周环比大幅减少14194张；布伦特原油期货基金净多持仓量平均维持在230414张，周环比大 幅减少19559张。 山东齐盛期货原油研究员高健表示："在近期布伦特原油期货单边下跌过程中，由于临近主力合约换 月，近月合约多头持续进行减仓操作。从加权合约情况来看，在多头减仓的同时，空头开始频繁增仓。 尽管空头增仓并不集中，但从持仓结构变化来看，原油市场整体氛围已然发生改变——多头力量逐渐减 弱，空头氛围则日益增强。" 在采访中，多位业内人士表示，俄乌局势进展对于国际原油价格走势至关重要。高健称，若俄乌局势持 续缓和，意味着地缘风险级别将会相对降低，进而对原油盘面的潜在支撑也会随之削弱。 供应过剩预期渐显 进入8月，国际原油市场风云突变，行情急转直下，美国WTI原油期货与布伦特原油期货价格较7月底高 点累计最大跌幅均超10%，国内原油期货主力合约也跌破500元/桶重要关口，市场多头力量萎缩、空头 氛围渐 ...

Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have significantly impacted oil prices, with a notable spike following Israel's airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, leading to a single-day increase of over 5% in Brent crude prices [2] - The subsequent threats from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. actions against Iranian facilities further heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions [2] - Following the ceasefire on June 24, oil prices retreated to pre-conflict levels, indicating a quick reversal of the geopolitical premium [2] - Despite the temporary easing of tensions, underlying issues such as the Iranian nuclear situation and the Strait of Hormuz dispute remain unresolved, keeping the market sensitive to sudden developments [2] Fundamental Pricing Logic - The oil market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to dictate price movements in the medium term, with EIA forecasting Brent crude prices to drop to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025 and further to $59 in 2026 due to rising global oil inventories and OPEC+ production increases [3] - OPEC+ has confirmed an acceleration of its production increase plan, aiming to meet its target of 2.2 million barrels per day by September, which is expected to maintain a supply surplus [3] - Demand is showing structural divergence, with U.S. summer travel boosting gasoline and jet fuel consumption, while China's low gasoline and diesel inventories and rising self-driving tourism support stable gasoline demand [3] - However, there are signs of weakening demand as global refinery margins shrink and peak demand for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. has been reached [3] - Overall, Brent crude prices are projected to fluctuate around $60 per barrel in Q3 2025, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production rates, with potential for further declines if Middle Eastern tensions ease [3]