智通财经获悉，由于愈发担心伊朗国内的抗议活动升级与美国政府军事打击导致原油供应彻底中断，原油期货市场 的交易员们正以前所未有的速度排队购买对冲工具，以防国际油价短期内飙升，看涨原油期权成交量迅速飙至创纪 录高位。继上周五激增后，周一布伦特原油看涨期权交易迎来史上最繁忙的单日成交。隐含波动率以及原油看涨押 注的溢价也延续了自上周末以来的涨势，并且两者都升至自去年6月美国与以色列轰炸伊朗以来的最高水平，表明市 场对上行保险的需求正在上升。 根据ICE Futures Europe的初步统计数据，周一有超过556,000份的历史新高数量级别看涨期权被易手，其中以近月合 约的一系列大额价差交易为主，使得创纪录看涨期权交易成为一种相对便宜且愈发热门的原油市场押注：若真的发 生供应中断，油价可能突然飙升。 正如上述图表所显示的那样，原油市场波动率飙升，该衡量波动性的关键指标升至自6月伊朗与以色列互相发动打击 以来的最高水平。 自上周三以来，2025年长期价格萎靡且被华尔街分析师们视为在供给过剩重压之下"2026年最弱大宗商品"的布伦特 原油期货价格大幅上涨逾6%，部分原因是欧佩克第四大产油国伊朗因抗议活动大幅升级以及特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to significant volatility in global oil prices, with the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) becoming a key indicator of market uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The OVX index surged by 26% to 71.56, marking its highest closing level since March 2022, and has increased by 104% over the past five trading days [1]. - Historical data shows that the OVX has reacted sharply to geopolitical events, such as an 11.7% increase following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 [4]. Group 2: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil for July delivery rose by 4.3% to $74.84 per barrel, reaching the highest closing price for the front-month contract this year, while Brent crude increased by 4.4% to $76.45 per barrel, the highest since February [5]. - Concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply are central to the market's volatility, with Iran currently exporting approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil per day [5]. Group 3: Market Positioning - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that speculative long positions in crude oil are consistent with the average levels of the past three years, suggesting room for further bullish sentiment [7]. - The number of open contracts for WTI crude futures has significantly decreased, indicating that short positions are being covered [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the conflict remains confined to Israel and Iran, the current price increases may have already priced in the primary risks, especially considering the spare capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE [7]. - However, if the situation escalates into a broader regional conflict affecting critical infrastructure, there could be significant upward pressure on oil prices [7].