Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran [1][2][4] - As of the latest reports, SC crude oil futures fell over 8%, with other oil products like fuel oil and LPG also experiencing notable declines [1] - The market is reacting to the potential for increased U.S. oil production as President Trump encourages the energy sector to ramp up drilling to stabilize prices [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions express differing views on the future of oil prices, with some predicting a return to fundamental pricing if geopolitical tensions ease, while others foresee continued volatility due to ongoing conflicts [3][4] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 is expected to influence production decisions, with speculation that Saudi Arabia may continue to increase output amid market share competition [2][3] - The current geopolitical situation remains fluid, with analysts noting that any missteps could lead to renewed tensions and impact oil prices significantly [2][4]

随着中东紧张局势持续升级，全球能源市场再度面临不确定性。以色列与伊朗之间的冲突扩大到能源设施，引发市场对原油供应中断的担忧。 200美元！极端情境下的油价 当地时间周一，加维在接受媒体采访时表示，虽然这种情况不是麦格理的基本预测情境，但在考虑最坏可能的前提下，确实存在油价短期内飙升 至每桶200美元以上的可能性。 加维表示，这一判断基于历史经验，即当全球石油供应出现大规模中断时，市场对供需缺口极为敏感，价格反应剧烈。据见闻此前文章，摩根大 通将"最坏情况概率"上调至17%，预测如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，油价将升至120美元。 地缘政治紧张情绪加剧，市场担心伊朗封锁全球最重要的石油动脉之一的霍尔木兹海峡。 见闻此前曾提及，霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海，每天大约有2000万桶石油和石油产品通过这里运输，占全球石油运输的近五分之一。若 被封锁，将对全球能源市场造成巨大冲击。 基本情境：风险溢价上升，但仍有限 尽管极端情境令人震惊，但加维强调，这并非当前市场的主流预期。根据麦格理的分析，目前市场价格中反映的是"风险溢价的温和上升"，这意 味着布伦特原油价格在短期内可能上涨至每桶80美元以上的水平，较当前水平仍高出10 ...

在地缘政治紧张局势升级的刺激下，国际油价正迈向2022年以来最大单周涨幅，一举抹平年内因全球贸 易摩擦和欧佩克+超预期加速恢复闲置产能带来的跌幅。摩根大通本周警告称，若中东局势恶化至最坏 情形，油价可能飙升至每桶130美元。 市场对短期供应趋紧的担忧在期货价差中显露无遗：布伦特原油最近两月合约价差(即时价差)的逆价差 结构持续加深，目前已达每桶3美元，较周四的92美分显著扩大;而2026年12月合约与今年12月合约的价 差更从50美分激增至2.90美元以上。 智通财经APP获悉，随着以色列军方对伊朗境内目标发动大规模军事打击，引发市场对占全球原油产量 三分之一的中东地区爆发新冲突的深切忧虑，国际油价持续上涨。 数据显示，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格一度飙升逾13%，突破每桶78美元大关;WTI原油期货同样大幅攀 升。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡宣称，此次袭击旨在摧毁德黑兰的核计划与军事能力，并将持续至威胁消 除。伊朗国家电视台报道，伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官侯赛因·萨拉米在袭击中丧生。 Phillip Nova Pte驻新加坡高级市场分析师Priyanka Sachdeva表示："原油投资者的风险偏好今日将面临严 峻考验，市场将 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices increased by over 1% due to concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East [1] - As of the report, Brent crude futures rose by $0.87 (1.3%) to $66.25 per barrel, while WTI futures increased by $0.89 (1.4%) to $62.92 per barrel [1] - Iran's daily crude oil exports exceed 1.5 million barrels, and any disruption could significantly impact oil prices and supply [1] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program have not yielded a resolution, with both sides still far apart [2] - Recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [2] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude oil inventory data [3] Group 3 - Kazakhstan's crude oil production increased by 2% in May, contrary to OPEC+ demands for production cuts [3]