能源深度 周一开盘,油品期货集体迎来高开行情。国际油价开盘跳空上涨,Brent原油价格一度飙升近13%,触及82美元/ 桶，后续有所回落但仍有8%左右涨幅；内盘SC原油期货收盘涨停。此轮油价飙升的直接导火索，是继2025年6 月伊以冲突后,上周末中东地区再度燃起战火。2月28日,美以联合对伊朗发动军事打击,造成伊朗最高领袖哈 梅内伊及多名高级官员身亡。作为回应，伊朗随即对美以目标发起代号为"真实承诺4"的军事行动，地区局势由 此前对峙迅速升级为全面军事对抗。 霍尔木兹海峡:从历史上"口头威胁"到此次通航实质上中断的质变 在伊朗采取的诸多反击措施中，最引发市场震动的,是宣布禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。这一消息传出 后，市场对中东产油国原油供应中断的恐慌情绪迅速升温。此前我们在报告《美伊冲突升级背景下原油价格影 响评估》中指出,地缘冲突对油价的溢价幅度与持续时间,取决于是否引发大规模、长期的实质性供应中断, 并据此推演出三种情景: 基准情景（制裁升级或有限军事摩擦）、中等风险情景（冲突外溢）、极端情景（霍 尔木兹海峡遭遇封锁）。2月28日晚，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布封锁海峡，国际油轮流量监测系统数据显示，霍 尔木 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ni 期货研究报告 原油-SC 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 2026 年 3 月 2 日 能化专题 中东战争爆发 能化溢价增强 核心观点 2026 年 2 月末，美伊军事冲突全面爆发，伊朗宣布正式关闭霍 尔木兹海峡，也门胡塞武装同步封锁曼德海峡，全球能源运输两大 核心通道陷入中断。霍尔木兹海峡承担全球 30%的海运原油贸易， 曼德海峡把控红海航线这一亚欧能源及商品运输要道，双海峡封锁 形成能源供应物理中断+全球航运体系瘫痪的双重冲击。 美伊冲突进一步升级，伊朗袭击沙特、阿联酋等产油国的石油 设施，或扩大封锁范围，导致原油供应缺口进一步扩大，油价超预 期上涨。同时油价暴涨推高全球通胀， ...

作为全球石油市场的关键供应方，沙特的定价动向历来对亚洲炼油商的采购成本有着直接影响。沙特每 月公布的官方售价是亚洲地区原油贸易的重要基准，此前该价格已连续数月下调。此次若确认上调，将 标志着沙特对亚洲原油需求前景的判断出现转变。与此同时，本周日OPEC+将召开会议决定4月的供应 政策，届时各产油国的产量安排也将进一步明朗。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 推动此次调价的因素主要有两方面。一方面，印度正加大对中东原油的采购力度，以替代部分俄罗斯供 应。俄罗斯能源基础设施近期遭受冲击，其关键输油管道Druzhba pipeline相关设施受损，导致部分出口 流向出现阶段性受限，亚洲买家因此转向中东寻求稳定货源。另一方面，美伊军事冲突威胁持续加剧， 引发原油供应中断担忧。美国总统特朗普近日承认正在考虑对伊朗实施"有限军事打击"，伊朗方面则回 应称，若遭袭击，中东地区美军基地都将被视为合法打击目标。 值得关注的是，沙特近期已在为可能出现的供应中断做准备。据智通财经2月26日报道，沙特正提高石 油产量和出口量，作为中东地缘局势升级的应急预案。油轮追踪数据显示， ...

当地时间2月19日，欧股跌幅扩大，截至发稿，英国富时100指数跌0.7%，法国CAC40指数跌0.79%，德国DAX30指数跌0.82%，富时意大利MIB指数跌 1.21%。 原油方面，WTI原油、布油齐涨超1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 英国官时100 | 10611.62 | -0.70% | | FTSE.GI | | | | 法国CAC40 | 8362.65 | -0.79% | | FCHI.PA | | | | 德国DAX | 25071.34 | -0.82% | | GDAXI.GI | | | | 意大利富时MIB | 45802.19 | -1.21% | | FTSEMIB.FI | | | | 欧元区 | 6052.68 | -0.83% | | SX5E.DF | | | | NYMEX WTI | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫 | | 65.80 | 71.11 | 62.75 | | +0.75 +1.15% | +0.76 +1.08% | +0.53 +0.85% | 消息面上，据央视新闻，波兰总理图斯克呼吁目前身处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a significant shift due to rising geopolitical risks in Iran, leading to a record surge in bullish oil options trading as traders seek to hedge against potential supply disruptions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures prices have increased by over 6% since last Wednesday, driven by concerns over supply threats from escalating protests in Iran and potential military actions by the U.S. government [2][6]. - On Monday, over 556,000 bullish options contracts were traded, marking a historic high, with a focus on near-term contracts [1][3]. - The implied volatility and premiums for bullish oil bets have risen to their highest levels since June of the previous year, indicating increased demand for upward protection [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in Iran remains volatile despite claims from Tehran that protests have been quelled, with reports suggesting that U.S. President Trump is inclined to initiate new strikes against Iran [3][6]. - The geopolitical tensions have led to a significant shift in market sentiment, with traders moving from bearish to bullish positions in response to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. Group 3: Supply Concerns - Iran's daily oil exports account for approximately 2% of global demand, and any disruption could alleviate concerns about an impending oversupply in the global oil market [6][7]. - Reports indicate that oil inventories at a major Iranian export terminal have decreased by about 20% since the beginning of the year, suggesting either a strategic transfer of oil or damage to energy infrastructure due to protests [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil futures market is experiencing unprecedented demand for hedging tools due to escalating concerns over domestic protests in Iran and potential military actions by the U.S., leading to a surge in call option trading volumes and implied volatility [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Call option trading volumes for Brent crude oil surged to a record high, with over 556,000 contracts traded in a single day, indicating a strong demand for upward price protection [1][4]. - The implied volatility and premiums for call options have risen to their highest levels since June of the previous year, reflecting increased market anxiety over potential supply disruptions [1][4]. - Brent crude oil prices have increased by over 6% since last Wednesday, driven by fears of supply threats from Iran amid ongoing protests and potential U.S. military actions [4][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The Iranian government claims to have quelled protests, but unrest appears to persist, raising concerns about the stability of oil supply [5][7]. - U.S. President Trump is reportedly inclined to initiate a new round of strikes against Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape and impacting oil prices [5][7]. - The potential for a 25% tariff on goods from countries doing business with Iran has also contributed to rising oil prices, as it may affect major buyers like China [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Iran's oil exports, which account for approximately 2% of global demand, face significant risks of interruption, alleviating previous concerns about a global oversupply of oil [7][8]. - A major Iranian export terminal has seen a reduction in oil inventory by about 20% since the beginning of the year, suggesting either a strategic move to avoid losses or damage to energy infrastructure due to protests [10].

Group 1 - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has led to a spike in oil prices, with WTI crude reaching $57.73 per gallon and Brent crude hitting $61.24 per gallon before declining later in the day [2] - Venezuela's oil exports have plummeted to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions, with the state oil company reducing production and shutting down oil fields [2] - The total amount of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea has exceeded 17 million barrels, with daily production dropping from approximately 1.1 million barrels in November to about 500,000 barrels in December [2] Group 2 - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which is nearly one-fifth of the global total [3] - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to create volatility in oil prices, with short-term price increases anticipated, but long-term pressures due to global economic weakness and oversupply [3] - The United Nations Security Council is convening an emergency meeting regarding U.S. military actions in Venezuela, reflecting the international concern over the escalating situation [3] Group 3 - The change in Venezuela's regime could significantly impact oil prices, but the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains a critical factor [4] - Despite Venezuela's reduced production, its role as a key supplier of heavy crude oil means that disruptions can elevate market risk perceptions [4] - If a pro-U.S. government is established in Venezuela, it could lead to a potential increase in oil exports by 3 million barrels per day, which may limit long-term price increases [4] Group 4 - The crisis in Venezuela is likely to trigger a chain reaction in the chemical industry, particularly affecting the supply of asphalt and methanol, which are critical for various downstream applications [5] - The interruption of heavy crude oil supplies from Venezuela is expected to lead to a shortage of asphalt, driving up prices and impacting road construction [5] - The ongoing conflict and logistical uncertainties are anticipated to further constrain methanol supplies to China, exacerbating the overall market tightness [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the domestic energy and chemical sector in the futures market, with asphalt futures experiencing a significant increase of 3.78%, reaching 3128.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Group 2 - Cost implications arise from the interruption of Venezuelan oil supply, which may significantly impact asphalt production in China, leading to potential increases in costs even if suitable import alternatives are found [2] - The current spot market shows stable prices for asphalt, with Shandong at 2950 CNY/ton, East China at 3090 CNY/ton, and South China increasing by 40 to 2940 CNY/ton [2] - The fundamental analysis indicates a persistent weak supply-demand dynamic, with winter storage not exceeding expectations and general trading levels remaining average, while upstream inventory is slightly accumulating [2] - Refinery operations are stable, with some units undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight reduction in overall excess pressure [2] - Future market outlook suggests that escalating tensions in South America may lead to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil shipments to Asia, increasing risks for non-US buyers [2] - Despite the weak fundamentals in the asphalt market, potential upward drivers may emerge from the raw material side, particularly if Venezuelan oil supply tightens, which could elevate the cost base for asphalt refineries and create further rebound space for asphalt prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] Report's Core View - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has intensified market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing the Brent crude oil price to exceed the $60/barrel mark, and driving up the sentiment of the domestic crude - oil related product market [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle East exports remain at a high level with abundant overall supply, but geopolitical situations may be the main variable; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. The market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten due to the Venezuela situation, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rise [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected the third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tension increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and the Brent crude oil price exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment improved [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle East export remains at a high level with abundant supply. Geopolitical situations such as the decline in Russia's shipping volume, the tense US - Venezuela relationship and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect the subsequent high - sulfur raw materials. The market will likely see a tug - of - war between the medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical fluctuations [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries will resume production one after another, and some RFCC units will enter the maintenance period, potentially increasing the marginal supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, and the rigid demand in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the rebound of crude oil today provides strong cost - side support, driving the BU price to rise [6]

Report Information - Report Name: Energy Daily [3] - Date: December 22, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Yingmin (Intermediate Analyst, F3066912 Z0016785), Li Haiqun (Intermediate Analyst, F03107558 Z0021515) [3] - Contact: 010 - 58747784, gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn [3] Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Red, indicating a clear upward - trending investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing Brent crude oil prices to exceed $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment has warmed up [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply, while geopolitical situations may be the main variable. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose, and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected a third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tensions have increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market has a bullish sentiment [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle - East exports remain high with sufficient overall supply. However, geopolitical situations may be the main variable, with a decline in Russian shipments. The tense US - Venezuela relations and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect high - sulfur raw materials. The market is expected to fluctuate between medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical impacts [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries are复产, and some RFCC units are entering the maintenance period, which may lead to a marginal increase in low - sulfur supply, putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1060000 tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, while that in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rebound [6]