【短评-原油】10月5日的欧佩克+会议上最终决定在11月仅 增产13.7万桶日，大幅增产的预期被证伪；截至10月3日当周， 美国原油库存增加约280万桶，远超市场预期的230万桶，而汽 油库存下降130万桶，馏分油库存减少180万桶。评：OPEC产量 增加周期始终压制油价。短期中东局势持续紧张，乌克兰对俄 罗斯能源基础设施的袭击，以及美国对伊朗的制裁等，增加了 市场对原油供应中断的担忧，为油价提供底部支撑。此外， OPEC+政策方面，其11月增产幅度低于预期，缓解了市场对供应 过剩的担忧，对油价形成一定支撑。整体上，油价中期压力仍 存，短期存在支撑，观望或短线过渡交易。 今 日 早 评 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，正在就加沙停火协议 相关事宜进行交涉，该协议已经非常接近达成，与巴勒斯坦伊 斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）的谈判"似乎进展顺利"。特朗普还 称，他本周末可能前往中东。评：节假日期间，黄金和美元指 数同步走高，目前已经超越4000点，但是不建议追高，美元指 数进一步走势需要观察。不建议追高。 投资咨询中心 2025年10月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are causing significant uncertainty in the global energy market, with concerns over potential oil supply disruptions [1] - Macquarie's commodity strategist Marcus Garvey warns that in an extreme scenario where Iranian oil supply is completely cut off and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, compared to the current price around $70 [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the market is highly sensitive to large-scale disruptions in oil supply, leading to dramatic price reactions [2] Group 2 - Macquarie's analysis suggests that the current market reflects a moderate increase in risk premium, with Brent crude oil prices potentially rising to over $80 per barrel in the short term, which is $10 higher than recent levels [4] - The market outlook may diverge in the coming weeks; if tensions ease, oil prices may return to fundamentals, while further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100 or higher [4] - Recent attacks on Iranian oil facilities by Israel have already impacted market sentiment, with WTI crude oil experiencing a volatile trading session [4]

Group 1 - The core concern is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to significant increases in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 13% to surpass $78 per barrel [1][3] - The market is experiencing its largest weekly gain since 2022, recovering losses from earlier in the year due to global trade tensions and OPEC+ production increases [3] - There are fears of potential supply disruptions, with the Brent crude oil spot price structure showing a deepening backwardation, indicating tight short-term supply [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have considerable idle capacity that could theoretically compensate for any potential loss in Iranian production [4][5] - However, potential retaliatory actions from Iran, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, could complicate the utilization of this capacity [5] - The geopolitical risks are prompting the oil market to factor in higher risk premiums for potential supply interruptions [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased by over 1% due to concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East [1] - As of the report, Brent crude futures rose by $0.87 (1.3%) to $66.25 per barrel, while WTI futures increased by $0.89 (1.4%) to $62.92 per barrel [1] - Iran's daily crude oil exports exceed 1.5 million barrels, and any disruption could significantly impact oil prices and supply [1] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program have not yielded a resolution, with both sides still far apart [2] - Recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [2] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude oil inventory data [3] Group 3 - Kazakhstan's crude oil production increased by 2% in May, contrary to OPEC+ demands for production cuts [3]