原油危机可能引发化工产业的连锁反应，广发期货表示，马瑞原油（Merey）是委内瑞拉核心出口原油 品种，属典型高硫超重质原油，沥青收率达60%附近，适配重质燃料油与沥青生产，是沥青型炼厂的重 要原料。委内瑞拉其出口的重质原油也是中国等国炼厂生产沥青的核心原料，短期供应中断将直接引发 沥青原料短缺，推高沥青价格，并对道路建设等下游行业造成显著冲击。此外，2025年中国自委内瑞拉 进口的甲醇约占进口总量的7%，该国与特立尼达和多巴哥的天然气合作中断已间接制约了区域甲醇产 能的释放；当前美委冲突升级进一步加剧了出口物流的不确定性，预计后续对华甲醇供应将继续收缩。 叠加同期伊朗因限气导致的装置停车，这一局面强化了市场对甲醇进口减量的整体预期。从更广泛的基 础化工领域看，原油价格上涨会通过石脑油、乙烯等基础原料向成本端传导，逐步推升PX等中间环节 价格，并最终影响PTA、涤纶长丝、塑料、橡胶等下游产品的生产与定价。与此同时，港口运作瘫痪与 航运封锁导致化工品运输受阻，运费与保险费用大幅上涨，进一步加剧了全市场供应紧张的格局。 由于委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘，原油市场本周一出现高走，今日早间美原油一度上涨0.5%，最高触及 5 ...

后市来看，宁证期货表示，南美局势进一步升级。在此背景下，委内瑞拉原油对亚洲发货量近期出现大 幅下滑，非美地区的买家面临风险骤增。但沥青现实基本面依然相对疲软，缺乏主动性。市场潜在的上 行驱动来自于原料端，如果未来委油供应持续性收紧，导致沥青炼厂成本中枢抬升，则沥青现货与盘面 存在进一步的反弹空间。 现货市场，据银河期货介绍，1月4日山东沥青现货稳价2950元/吨，华东地区稳价3090元/吨，华南地区 涨40至2940元/吨。 基本面方面，东海期货分析称，供需两弱格局将持续，需求方面冬储目前情况仍未有超预期利好，交投 水平仍然一般，上下游库存转移中，社库小幅累积，对厂库形成去化，但总库存去化幅度有限。供应方 面炼厂开工保持平稳，部分装置检修，整体过剩压力略有减少。 1月5日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，沥青期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报 3128.00元/吨，大幅上涨3.78%。 成本方面，国投安信期货指出，委内瑞拉原油供应中断之后，可能会对我国炼厂生产沥青造成较大影 响，即使找到合适进口替代国，但是成本方面可能将有所提高，该事件对于沥青价格影响偏多。 ...

【原油】 据12月21日消息称,美方人员当天在委内瑞拉附近国际水域拦截第三艘油轮并登船检查。美委紧张关系的持续 升级加剧了市场对原油供应中断的优惠，布伦特原油价格重新站上60美元/桶关口。在内盘市场，受到外盘油价 上涨情绪的带动,国内原油系品种市场情绪出现回暖,市场整体呈现看涨氛围。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 高硫方面,目前中东出口仍然维持较高水平,市场整体供应较为充裕,但近期地缘局势或成为高硫主要变量, 俄罗斯装船量有所回落，美委之间关系持续紧张、美国可能对俄实施新制裁可能会对于后续的高硫原料造成燃 动,后续市场预计将在中期供应趋于宽松与短期地缘犹动之间反复博弈。疏燃料油市场中期供应趋于宽松，东 非地区的低硫重质原料供应预计逐步恢复，海外关键练厂陆续复产，而部分RFCC装置进入检修周期，可能推动 低硫供应边际增加，市场预计将持续承压。 【沥青】 2026年1月地炼排产106万吨，环比与同比均下滑明显。需求方面，北方市场需求表现平淡，华东市场刚需平 稳。受委内瑞拉局势影响,市场预计沥青远期原料供应趋紧,原油今日反弹，成本端支撑偏强带动BU反弹。 | | | --- | | 1914 | | . . | | . ...

| 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | | 能源日报 | | --- | | 2025年12月22日 | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 010-58747784 | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | --- | | 1914 | | . . | | . = | | 40 D œ | | 4 | | 4 | | 14 œ 1 | 【沥青】 2026年1月地炼排产106万吨，环比与同比均下滑明显。需求方面，北方市场需求表现平淡，华东市场刚需平 稳。受委内瑞拉局势影响,市场预计沥青远期原料供应趋紧,原油今日反弹，成本端支撑偏强带动BU反弹。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 【原 ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration has developed a list of potential military actions against Venezuela, indicating a significant escalation in U.S. policy towards the South American country [1] - Following the news, international oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude rising to $59.82 per barrel and Brent crude reaching $63.75 per barrel [2][5] Military Actions and Legal Framework - U.S. President Trump and senior officials are evaluating military strike options, including special forces targeting Venezuelan government leaders and deploying counter-terrorism units to control oil fields and infrastructure [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice is seeking legal justification for unilateral military action, linking the Maduro government to the "Cartel de los Soles," which is classified as a "drug trafficking terrorist organization" by the U.S. [1][8] Military Deployment and Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. military has significantly increased its presence in the Caribbean, with 10,000 Army and Marine Corps personnel, 6,000 Navy personnel, and various naval assets being deployed [9] - Recent military actions include 16 airstrikes against Venezuelan maritime targets, resulting in at least 67 deaths, raising concerns about the potential for escalating conflict and its impact on global oil supply [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices face medium - term pressure but have short - term support. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term transitional trading [1]. - Do not chase the high price of gold. Observe the further trend of the US dollar index [1]. - For rubber, it is supported by low inventory and low production in the medium term, but the short - term supply - demand drive is weak. Wait and see or conduct short - term trading [3]. - In October, the asphalt market is expected to maintain a low - price stable and high - price pressured trend [4]. - For iron ore, short - term long positions at low prices are recommended [5]. - For coking coal, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For rebar, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the support levels of the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils [7]. - For silver, observe the market as the follow - up upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. - For palm oil, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. - For soybeans, the short - term supply is loose, which suppresses the rise of domestic soybean futures prices [9]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [11]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Wait and see or conduct short - term long positions after a pullback [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [13]. Summary by Variety Oil - On October 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day in November, falsifying the expectation of a large - scale increase. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels [1]. - The OPEC production increase cycle suppresses oil prices, but short - term geopolitical factors and OPEC+ policy provide support [1]. Gold - US President Trump is negotiating a Gaza cease - fire agreement, which is close to being reached [1]. - During the holiday, gold and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, but it is not recommended to chase the high price [1]. Rubber - ANRPC's August 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in August decreased by 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, and consumption decreased by 1% to 1.256 million tons. In the first 8 months, cumulative production decreased slightly by 0.03% to 8.856 million tons, and cumulative consumption decreased by 0.6% to 10.146 million tons. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [3]. - In the first 8 months, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were slightly down by 0.1% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 7.7% [3]. - In September - October, the Southeast Asian main producing areas are in the peak tapping season, with an expected increase in production and exports, and overall limited demand growth [3]. Asphalt - The national petroleum asphalt planned volume in October 2025 was 2.592 million tons, a 0.04% month - on - month decrease and a 22.93% year - on - year increase. During the holiday, the domestic asphalt capacity utilization rate was 36.8%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase [4]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" for highway construction shows a low growth rate in highway mileage. In October, the demand in the north increased, while that in the south stagnated [4]. Iron Ore - From September 22 - 28, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 146,700 tons month - on - month, and at 45 ports decreased by 314,500 tons month - on - month [5]. - Overseas iron ore prices rose slightly during the holiday, and the supply - demand structure improved [5]. Coking Coal - There were supply disturbances such as mine accidents and over - production penalties, and the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal increased by about $3.8 per ton compared with the third quarter [5]. - Considering the pre - holiday weak market, the impact is expected to be limited, and the post - holiday customs clearance volume is expected to remain high [5]. Rebar - The price of Tangshan billets remained stable at 2,950 yuan per ton, and the spot market was closed with a stable price expectation. During the holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction and then seasonal inventory accumulation [7]. - Pay attention to the demand expectation changes brought by macro variables in October, and the steel price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7]. Silver - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that there is uncertainty about future interest rate cuts. During the holiday, silver followed gold's rise passively, and the follow - up upward momentum is insufficient [7]. Live Pigs - As of October 9, the national live pig price showed a stable - to - weak trend, with most provincial prices falling [8]. - The price during the National Day showed a "off - peak season" downward trend, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Palm Oil - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association requests the government to reconsider the B50 plan in 2024 due to potential insufficient production [8]. - The main producing areas are in the production reduction period, and illegal plantation rectification in Indonesia is beneficial to prices, but weak demand may limit the price rebound [8]. Soybeans - In September, Brazil's soybean export volume was 7.341 million tons, a 20.2% increase in daily export volume year - on - year. The export revenue was $3.11 billion [9]. - New soybeans in Northeast China are on the market in large quantities at low prices, and imported soybeans have sufficient arrivals [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 11 yuan per ton to 2,242 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.62% to 82.53%, and the downstream total capacity utilization rate increased by 3.83% to 74.62% [11]. - Port and enterprise inventories decreased, and downstream replenishment is expected after the holiday [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,276 yuan per ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend. The weekly production increased by 4.18% to 776,900 tons, and the manufacturer's total inventory decreased by 5.93% [12]. - The float glass start - up rate is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market was stable during the holiday, and downstream replenishment is expected after the holiday [12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE decreased by 2 yuan per ton to 7,240 yuan per ton. The weekly production decreased by 1.14% to 292,500 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 18.12% [13]. - The downstream average start - up rate increased, and there is an expectation of replenishment after the holiday [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are causing significant uncertainty in the global energy market, with concerns over potential oil supply disruptions [1] - Macquarie's commodity strategist Marcus Garvey warns that in an extreme scenario where Iranian oil supply is completely cut off and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, compared to the current price around $70 [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the market is highly sensitive to large-scale disruptions in oil supply, leading to dramatic price reactions [2] Group 2 - Macquarie's analysis suggests that the current market reflects a moderate increase in risk premium, with Brent crude oil prices potentially rising to over $80 per barrel in the short term, which is $10 higher than recent levels [4] - The market outlook may diverge in the coming weeks; if tensions ease, oil prices may return to fundamentals, while further attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100 or higher [4] - Recent attacks on Iranian oil facilities by Israel have already impacted market sentiment, with WTI crude oil experiencing a volatile trading session [4]

Group 1 - The core concern is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to significant increases in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 13% to surpass $78 per barrel [1][3] - The market is experiencing its largest weekly gain since 2022, recovering losses from earlier in the year due to global trade tensions and OPEC+ production increases [3] - There are fears of potential supply disruptions, with the Brent crude oil spot price structure showing a deepening backwardation, indicating tight short-term supply [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have considerable idle capacity that could theoretically compensate for any potential loss in Iranian production [4][5] - However, potential retaliatory actions from Iran, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, could complicate the utilization of this capacity [5] - The geopolitical risks are prompting the oil market to factor in higher risk premiums for potential supply interruptions [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices increased by over 1% due to concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East [1] - As of the report, Brent crude futures rose by $0.87 (1.3%) to $66.25 per barrel, while WTI futures increased by $0.89 (1.4%) to $62.92 per barrel [1] - Iran's daily crude oil exports exceed 1.5 million barrels, and any disruption could significantly impact oil prices and supply [1] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program have not yielded a resolution, with both sides still far apart [2] - Recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [2] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report on crude oil inventory data [3] Group 3 - Kazakhstan's crude oil production increased by 2% in May, contrary to OPEC+ demands for production cuts [3]