国内油价迎来年内最后一次调整，以"三连跌"收官。 12月22日，国家发展改革委信息显示，自当日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品）每吨分别降低170 元、165元。折合升价，92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升分别下调0.13元、0.14元、0.14元。 中经记者 李哲 北京报道 （编辑：董曙光 审核：吴可仲 校对：颜京宁） 国内市场方面，山东地炼开工率窄幅波动，而主营炼厂开工率呈上升趋势，令国内成品油资源供应小幅 增加。在需求端，随着北方地区气温逐步回落，户外基建工程进展放缓，柴油需求表现疲软。 毕明欣表示，尽管近期原油价格连续小幅上涨，但在下调预期压制、需求端表现乏力以及主营销售压力 渐增的共同影响下，国内汽柴油价格延续弱势运行态势。 毕明欣认为，尽管委内瑞拉航运受阻仍对原油市场构成一定支撑，但全球供应过剩的预期持续存在，预 计国际原油价格仍将延续震荡格局。新一轮计价周期伊始，变化率或维持负向开端，消息面对行情支撑 有限。同时，国内终端需求未见实质性改善，业内普遍持谨慎观望态度，市场信心仍显不足。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，经此次价格调整后，2025年成品油价格调整呈现出"七涨十二跌六搁浅"的 格局。下一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【沥青（BU）】 进入淡季，供需双减 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 沥青：进入淡季，供需双减 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 利空 | （1）本周沥青市场供给呈增长态势，核心驱动力来自炼厂复产与进口补充。产能利用率较上期有所提升，华北、山东及华东地区部分主力炼厂相继恢 | | | | 复生产，成为产量增加的主要支撑，而其他区域炼厂运行相对稳定，部分地区因间歇停产或转产，产能利用率略有波动。 | | | | （2）检修方面，本周沥青装置检修规模收缩，部分前期停车炼厂复产带动检修损失量下降，进一步释放供应潜力。进口端同样呈现增量，叠加国内产 | | | | 量增长，本周总供应量实现明显提升。 | | | | （3）下周供应仍有微增预期，尽管山东部分炼厂计划转产渣油，但华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's short - term driving force has weakened. After the geopolitical and macro - level positive factors are digested, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. The fundamental pressure remains unsolved, and there is strong resistance at the $65 level. Attention should be focused on the OPEC+ meeting results, and be vigilant against unexpectedly negative news [2] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Structure - Multiple charts present the WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil forward curves and monthly spreads, including data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - weeks ago, which help analyze the market structure [6][10][13] Supply - The OPEC+ meeting is the focus, with the market expecting a slight increase in production. However, the quota negotiation of Iraq may bring unexpectedly negative impacts. Geopolitical factors such as events in Venezuela and Russia have not caused supply disruptions for now, but potential disturbances need to be monitored. Overall, the supply is relatively loose, suppressing the upward movement of oil prices [2] Demand - The improvement in the macro - economic sentiment has not effectively translated into increased crude oil demand. Funds prefer the stock market, and crude oil shows weakness among commodities. The expectation of a Fed rate cut is neutral, and it is difficult to boost demand in the short term. If the economy weakens more than expected, it may have complex impacts [2] Inventory - According to API data for the week ending October 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.001 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 343,000 barrels. The overall inventory change has a neutral impact on oil prices. The current contango structure of the crude oil market reflects concerns about future supply gluts [2] Position/US Dollar - Multiple charts show the WTI and Brent fund positions, total positions, and the US dollar index, which are important for analyzing market sentiment and the relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to undergo a second adjustment in September, with the potential for prices to drop further before the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, despite recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The last adjustment on August 27 resulted in a decrease of 0.14 to 0.16 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, with 92 gasoline prices dropping to 7.05 to 7.15 yuan per liter, nearing the "6 yuan era" [3]. - The next price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with the current cycle showing a decrease of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [5][7]. International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown volatility, with WTI crude oil rising to 62.69 USD per barrel and Brent crude oil to 66.99 USD per barrel, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. - Factors influencing the oil market include geopolitical tensions, such as potential sanctions on Russian oil, and increasing U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which have risen by 3.9 million barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [5][7]. Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with predictions of a stable adjustment of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices in the upcoming week [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [7].

Core Insights - The crude oil market is experiencing turbulence, with significant underlying signals that require close monitoring [1] - Natural gas shorts are continuing to increase their positions, but signs of bottom support are emerging, potentially indicating a reversal opportunity [1] Group 1 - The crude oil market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with various factors influencing its dynamics [1] - Key signals in the oil market are crucial for investors to watch closely to understand future trends [1] Group 2 - The natural gas market is seeing an increase in short positions, suggesting bearish sentiment among traders [1] - The emergence of bottom support in natural gas prices could signal a potential turnaround in market trends [1]