1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. This week, the PG market was mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuated with crude oil. With Iran being an important LPG supplier to China, the overall price trended strongly. After the US postponed military action against Iran on Friday, the risk premium was reversed [1][2]. - On the fundamentals, although the Iran issue has not had much substantial impact on PG, the overall shipping volume from the Middle East remains low, which will continue for some time and support import costs [2]. - In the domestic demand side, with the maintenance of PDH units this week, the marginal demand has weakened. Meanwhile, the profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive, and subsequent maintenance situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil market fluctuates repeatedly. International crude oil faces the pressure of oversupply in fundamentals and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. After the US suspended military action against Iran on Friday, the short - term risk premium was reversed [1]. - Overseas propane market is in a volatile state. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low, and the US is in a state of inventory reduction with increased exports this week, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and the demand is significantly weaker year - on - year. As of Friday, the FEI premium is $37.75, and the CP premium is $29 [1]. - The domestic fundamentals are stable. The arrival volume at ports this week is still low, port inventories continue to decline, and the commercial volume of refineries remains at a relatively low level. On the chemical demand side, PDH maintenance increased this week, and the operating rate declined [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be volatile. The price range of PG03 is between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to narrow in a volatile manner. The spot price is rising due to tight supply, and the futures price may experience valuation repair [15]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The spread is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high. The near - term is relatively strongly supported, but the long - term outlook is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the near - term [16]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the domestic - foreign price spread and widen the PP/PG price ratio when the price is low [16]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - Hold the 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage position and partially take profits [17]. - Keep the long - PP and short - PG position on hold. Although PDH maintenance has increased recently, the PP price has risen significantly due to cost factors, and the short - term unilateral upward space is limited. The PG price fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to enter the market [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.27% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 12.77% [18]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy Table** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises. For example, sell PG2603C4400 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 100 - 120 yuan [18][19]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy PG futures at a low price on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For example, buy PG2603 and PG2603P3800 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops. For example, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 20 - 40 yuan [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information** - PDH maintenance increased this week. Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [19]. - The US suspended military action against Iran, and the situation in Iran has cooled down in the short term [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - January 19: China's Q4 GDP [24]. - January 20: China's LPR [24]. - January 22: US PCE index [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PG03 contract fluctuated upwards. The net position of the main profitable seats increased slightly; there was no significant change in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign investors and retail investors increased slightly [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, PG03 generally fluctuated upwards, oscillating between 4,000 - 4,300 yuan/ton on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, attention should be paid to the support around 4,100 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 calendar spread was - 242 yuan/ton [26]. - **Overseas Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $526/ton (+$11), with a premium of $37.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $530/ton (+$6), with a CP premium of $29/ton; MB M1 closed at $321/ton (-$11). Affected by geopolitical factors this week, FEI and CP prices mainly increased, while the US fundamentals were relatively weak, and the price declined [28]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $23/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $17.5/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton. The recent increase in the near - month price has put pressure on the MB near - month contract [37]. - **Regional Price Spread Tracking**: The weak fundamentals in the US have widened the price spread between FEI and MB. The easing of the situation in Iran in the Middle East has led to a greater reversal of the CP risk premium, and the price spread between CP and FEI has narrowed [39]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton (+85 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89 yuan/ton). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [43]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was +88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 218 yuan/ton. The profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive. The MTBE gas separation profit was - 69 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 34 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 265 yuan/ton. The profits fluctuated slightly [45]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was in a volatile state [49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - **US Supply - Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply - Demand**: This week, production remained stable, demand was still relatively high, exports recovered, and inventories continued to decline, but the overall inventory level was still relatively high [56]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. Weekly exports have recovered this week [61]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has been low in recent weeks but has slightly improved [65]. - **India Supply - Demand**: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. There is still expected to be an increase in 2026, but the growth rate is expected to be limited [70]. - **South Korea Supply - Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, as most of it is used in the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. Recently, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [81]. - **Japan Supply - Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets cooler. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were neutral. Imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is around 1,000 kt. From January to December 2025, Japan imported a total of 10,105 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.58% [84]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance** - **Supply**: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external sales volume is not high. According to shipping data, the import volume is not high [89]. - **Demand**: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand has decreased, while combustion demand has increased. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [89]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port end [90]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 77.24% (+0.26%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.91% (-0.66%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 49.77% (-0.74%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.87 tons (+0.06 tons), and the arrival volume is 53.9 tons (+1.1 tons). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 23.15% (-0.66%), and the port inventory is 202.78 tons (-10.42 tons) [93]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [104]. - **MTBE Demand**: This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance, and Dongfang Hongye resumed production. The domestic - foreign price spread has widened [107]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: There were no changes in the units this week [114]. - **Combustion Demand**: No specific information provided other than related to the seasonal charts [116].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices in China have experienced a "three consecutive declines" as the year comes to a close, with significant reductions in gasoline and diesel prices [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of December 22, 2025, the prices for gasoline and diesel have been reduced by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively, translating to a decrease of 0.13 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.14 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1] - The price adjustment pattern for 2025 shows "seven increases, twelve decreases, and six stabilities" [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have shown a trend of fluctuating increases, supported by increased U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and heightened EU sanctions on Russia, alongside uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine situation [1] - Domestic supply of refined oil has slightly increased due to rising operating rates at major refineries, while demand has weakened, particularly for diesel, as outdoor construction activities slow down with falling temperatures in northern regions [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite recent small increases in crude oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to continue a weak operational trend due to suppressed expectations for further reductions, weak demand, and increasing sales pressure on major suppliers [1] - Analysts predict that the international crude oil market will continue to experience a volatile pattern, with expectations of oversupply persisting, leading to a cautious outlook among industry participants [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt market is "weak shock", and the trading strategy for the single - side is also "weak shock", with no arbitrage strategy recommended [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in the off - season with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply is bearish, demand is neutral, inventory is bullish, and cost is bearish. The overall trend of asphalt continues to follow the fluctuations of crude oil, with supply still high year - on - year and demand declining [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt market supply showed an increasing trend, driven by refinery restarts and import supplements. Capacity utilization increased, and the scale of maintenance of asphalt units shrank. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [4]. - **Demand**: This week, asphalt demand showed regional differentiation, mainly driven by rigid demand. The demand in the north was affected by low - temperature weather, while that in the south was relatively stable. Modified asphalt demand also varied by region [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, the overall asphalt inventory decreased, including both factory and social inventories. Next week, factory inventories are expected to continue to decline, while trader inventories may increase [4]. - **Cost**: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated downward. Geopolitical tensions eased, and inventory changes affected oil prices. The average oil price this week decreased compared with last week [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "weak shock", and the single - side trading strategy is also "weak shock". Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025, as well as the basis of asphalt in main regions from 2024 - 2025 [12][13][17]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduling Expectation**: It shows the monthly asphalt production and scheduling in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, and the annual production in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [61]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volume in different regions of China from 2022 to 2025 [64]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 - 2025, as well as the modified asphalt operating rate in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's short - term driving force has weakened. After the geopolitical and macro - level positive factors are digested, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. The fundamental pressure remains unsolved, and there is strong resistance at the $65 level. Attention should be focused on the OPEC+ meeting results, and be vigilant against unexpectedly negative news [2] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Structure - Multiple charts present the WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil forward curves and monthly spreads, including data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - weeks ago, which help analyze the market structure [6][10][13] Supply - The OPEC+ meeting is the focus, with the market expecting a slight increase in production. However, the quota negotiation of Iraq may bring unexpectedly negative impacts. Geopolitical factors such as events in Venezuela and Russia have not caused supply disruptions for now, but potential disturbances need to be monitored. Overall, the supply is relatively loose, suppressing the upward movement of oil prices [2] Demand - The improvement in the macro - economic sentiment has not effectively translated into increased crude oil demand. Funds prefer the stock market, and crude oil shows weakness among commodities. The expectation of a Fed rate cut is neutral, and it is difficult to boost demand in the short term. If the economy weakens more than expected, it may have complex impacts [2] Inventory - According to API data for the week ending October 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.001 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 343,000 barrels. The overall inventory change has a neutral impact on oil prices. The current contango structure of the crude oil market reflects concerns about future supply gluts [2] Position/US Dollar - Multiple charts show the WTI and Brent fund positions, total positions, and the US dollar index, which are important for analyzing market sentiment and the relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to undergo a second adjustment in September, with the potential for prices to drop further before the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, despite recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The last adjustment on August 27 resulted in a decrease of 0.14 to 0.16 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, with 92 gasoline prices dropping to 7.05 to 7.15 yuan per liter, nearing the "6 yuan era" [3]. - The next price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with the current cycle showing a decrease of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [5][7]. International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown volatility, with WTI crude oil rising to 62.69 USD per barrel and Brent crude oil to 66.99 USD per barrel, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. - Factors influencing the oil market include geopolitical tensions, such as potential sanctions on Russian oil, and increasing U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which have risen by 3.9 million barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [5][7]. Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with predictions of a stable adjustment of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices in the upcoming week [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [7].

Core Insights - The crude oil market is experiencing turbulence, with significant underlying signals that require close monitoring [1] - Natural gas shorts are continuing to increase their positions, but signs of bottom support are emerging, potentially indicating a reversal opportunity [1] Group 1 - The crude oil market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with various factors influencing its dynamics [1] - Key signals in the oil market are crucial for investors to watch closely to understand future trends [1] Group 2 - The natural gas market is seeing an increase in short positions, suggesting bearish sentiment among traders [1] - The emergence of bottom support in natural gas prices could signal a potential turnaround in market trends [1]