1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's short - term driving force has weakened. After the geopolitical and macro - level positive factors are digested, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. The fundamental pressure remains unsolved, and there is strong resistance at the $65 level. Attention should be focused on the OPEC+ meeting results, and be vigilant against unexpectedly negative news [2] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Structure - Multiple charts present the WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil forward curves and monthly spreads, including data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - weeks ago, which help analyze the market structure [6][10][13] Supply - The OPEC+ meeting is the focus, with the market expecting a slight increase in production. However, the quota negotiation of Iraq may bring unexpectedly negative impacts. Geopolitical factors such as events in Venezuela and Russia have not caused supply disruptions for now, but potential disturbances need to be monitored. Overall, the supply is relatively loose, suppressing the upward movement of oil prices [2] Demand - The improvement in the macro - economic sentiment has not effectively translated into increased crude oil demand. Funds prefer the stock market, and crude oil shows weakness among commodities. The expectation of a Fed rate cut is neutral, and it is difficult to boost demand in the short term. If the economy weakens more than expected, it may have complex impacts [2] Inventory - According to API data for the week ending October 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.001 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 343,000 barrels. The overall inventory change has a neutral impact on oil prices. The current contango structure of the crude oil market reflects concerns about future supply gluts [2] Position/US Dollar - Multiple charts show the WTI and Brent fund positions, total positions, and the US dollar index, which are important for analyzing market sentiment and the relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to undergo a second adjustment in September, with the potential for prices to drop further before the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, despite recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The last adjustment on August 27 resulted in a decrease of 0.14 to 0.16 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, with 92 gasoline prices dropping to 7.05 to 7.15 yuan per liter, nearing the "6 yuan era" [3]. - The next price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with the current cycle showing a decrease of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [5][7]. International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown volatility, with WTI crude oil rising to 62.69 USD per barrel and Brent crude oil to 66.99 USD per barrel, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. - Factors influencing the oil market include geopolitical tensions, such as potential sanctions on Russian oil, and increasing U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which have risen by 3.9 million barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [5][7]. Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with predictions of a stable adjustment of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices in the upcoming week [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [7].

Core Insights - The crude oil market is experiencing turbulence, with significant underlying signals that require close monitoring [1] - Natural gas shorts are continuing to increase their positions, but signs of bottom support are emerging, potentially indicating a reversal opportunity [1] Group 1 - The crude oil market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with various factors influencing its dynamics [1] - Key signals in the oil market are crucial for investors to watch closely to understand future trends [1] Group 2 - The natural gas market is seeing an increase in short positions, suggesting bearish sentiment among traders [1] - The emergence of bottom support in natural gas prices could signal a potential turnaround in market trends [1]