周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美国闪击委内瑞拉，美元短期震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上 行，美债收益率升至 4.19%。美元指数涨 0.46%至 98.4，非美货 币涨跌互现，离岸人民币涨 0.49%，欧元跌 0.45%，英镑跌 0.3%，日元跌 0.17%，瑞郎跌 0.37%，韩元涨 2.46%，新西兰 元、泰铢跌超 1%，加元、澳元收跌，雷亚尔、兰特、比索收 涨。金价跌 4.4%至 4332 美元/盎司，VIX 指数微升至 14.5，现货 商品指数收跌，布油涨 0.9%至 60.8 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 海外市场圣诞假期后又迎来全球市场元旦假期，市场交易依旧 较为清淡。美联储 12 月利率会议纪要公布，关于降息前景鸽派 和鹰派的分歧巨大，通胀的上行风险以及就业市场的下行风险 间的矛盾导致未来的降息路径和空间存在较大的不确定性，关 税对美国通胀的影响将在 2026 年上半年进一步体现，但由于服 务成本下降，以及原油价格低位震荡，美国通胀当前并未快速 上行，但鹰派票委侧重通胀的上行风险，政策 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed performance on November 27, with platinum leading the gains, rising over 6%, followed by silver and tin with increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.51 points, up 9.37 points or 0.64% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2048.35 points, up 12.96 points or 0.64% [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector remained strong, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which supported gold prices and consequently boosted silver and platinum prices due to supply shortages [2][3] - Tin prices surged over 2% due to concerns over supply disruptions from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with prices breaking the 300,000 yuan per ton mark [3] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly rose, with eggs experiencing a significant rebound of over 2%, and various oilseed products increasing by over 1% [4] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.68%, with market sentiment weakening despite strong demand expectations and decreasing inventory [5] - Asphalt futures continued to trend weak, dropping by 1.41% due to declining demand as temperatures fell, leading to a subdued market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to undergo a second adjustment in September, with the potential for prices to drop further before the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, despite recent fluctuations in international oil prices [1][3]. Price Adjustments - The last adjustment on August 27 resulted in a decrease of 0.14 to 0.16 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, with 92 gasoline prices dropping to 7.05 to 7.15 yuan per liter, nearing the "6 yuan era" [3]. - The next price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with the current cycle showing a decrease of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [5][7]. International Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have shown volatility, with WTI crude oil rising to 62.69 USD per barrel and Brent crude oil to 66.99 USD per barrel, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5]. - Factors influencing the oil market include geopolitical tensions, such as potential sanctions on Russian oil, and increasing U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which have risen by 3.9 million barrels, raising concerns about oversupply [5][7]. Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with predictions of a stable adjustment of 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices in the upcoming week [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market is characterized by a lack of clear direction, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [7].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market's uncertainty is highlighted, with gold's recent volatility exemplifying the challenges in predicting market movements [2] Market Review - On Monday, gold reached a high of 3405 and a low of 3341, experiencing a significant drop of 64 USD, which erased the previous week's upward momentum [4] - The market's behavior is described as deceptive for bullish traders, who were misled by the previous week's performance [4] Current Market Situation - Following the recent decline, bears have gained a significant advantage, making it increasingly difficult for bulls to reach historical highs [6] - The market sentiment suggests that any upward movements are likely to be for distribution purposes, preparing for larger declines [6] Fundamental Analysis - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a stalemate, with little expectation for large-scale military engagements [7] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is already priced in, but this may signal the end of bullish trends [8] Technical Analysis - After the recent bearish candle, indicators are in an oversold state, suggesting a potential for a strong rebound [10] - Key support levels are identified at 3341, 3330, and 3315, with critical resistance at 3360-62 and 3380 [11] Trading Strategy - The company suggests maintaining short positions above 3360-62 and 3380, while looking for opportunities to enter long positions near support levels [11] - In the silver market, a significant drop was noted, with key resistance at 38.5 and a recent low at 37.5 [11] Position Management - The company has adjusted positions in gold and silver, locking in profits from previous trades while preparing for potential rebounds [13]

Core Viewpoint - The total margin financing and securities lending (two-in-one balance) has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the short term as the Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 3600 points for the first time since 2015 [1][13]. Market Dynamics - The two-in-one balance has been on an upward trend since mid-July, reaching approximately 1.98 trillion yuan by the end of July, with significant daily increases noted [2][3]. - As of August 5, the two-in-one balance reached 2 trillion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.99 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 139.48 billion yuan [1][5]. Sector Preferences - The sectors attracting the most margin buying include electronics, computers, and biomedicine, with respective financing buy amounts of 492.24 billion yuan, 370.82 billion yuan, and 317.42 billion yuan from early July to early August [6][9]. - In the past month, six sectors have seen net financing purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan, with biomedicine, electronics, and power equipment leading the way [7]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stocks with significant net financing purchases include Xinyisheng (30.78 billion yuan), Northern Rare Earth (22.97 billion yuan), and Shenghong Technology (20.78 billion yuan) [10]. - Certain stocks have seen dramatic increases in financing balances, such as Chengdi Xiangjiang, Zhongjian Technology, and Shangwei New Materials, with increases of approximately 3356%, 2158%, and 1769% respectively [8]. Risk Considerations - Analysts suggest that while the current two-in-one balance is at a historical high, it remains at a relatively safe level compared to previous peaks in 2014, where it constituted a larger percentage of the A-share market [13]. - The preference for technology sectors indicates a focus on high-growth and high-volatility stocks, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [12][11].

Core Insights - The article highlights an increase in palm oil demand from China and India, while rising production levels pose potential concerns for the market [1] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - China's palm oil demand is on the rise, indicating a strengthening market for palm oil exports [1] - India is also experiencing increased demand for palm oil, contributing to the overall growth in consumption [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - There is a notable increase in palm oil production, which may lead to oversupply issues in the market [1] - The balance between rising demand and increasing production levels is creating a more complex market environment [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened volatility as traders navigate the conflicting signals of demand growth and supply increases [1] - The ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is expected to influence palm oil futures in the coming week [1]