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建信期货原油日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:15
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]
建信期货原油日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the peak season, crude oil consumption may be lower than expected, and oil prices are likely to move sideways in the short term. It is necessary to continue to monitor consumption and Saudi Arabia's supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes**: WTI closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 0.76%; Brent closed at $68.67 per barrel, down 0.78%; SC closed at 503.7 yuan per barrel, down 0.57%. API data showed that as of the week ending on the 18th, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 575,000 barrels week - on - week, but gasoline inventories increased significantly, causing oil prices to fall again [6] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The three major institutions' July reports showed little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, most OPEC countries completed compensatory production cuts, but there were differences in the estimates of Saudi Arabia's oil production. High - frequency data indicated that U.S. refined oil consumption was slightly lower than expected [7] 3.2 行业要闻 - The IEA stated that global LNG supply will see the largest increase since 2019 next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. has become a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria for the first time [10] 3.3 数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI fund positions, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [11][14]
建信期货原油日报-20250723
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:41
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 23 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员 ...
原油短期震荡偏强
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 12:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].