专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月26日，ATFX：沙特是全球最大的石油出口国，日均出口量在700万桶以上。伊朗的日均石油出口在 200万桶以上，约为沙特出口量的三成。 美国已经在中东地区部署了两艘航空母舰，林肯号在波斯湾震慑伊朗，福特号在希腊强化以色列防御能 力。虽然今日美伊双方将会在瑞士日内瓦会晤，但由于伊核问题的根本矛盾存在，会晤达成实质性成果 的概率较低。 对于原油交易者来说，美伊局势是现阶段最具悬念和冲击力的事件，一旦双方陷入战火，国际油价将一 飞冲天。核心逻辑是，伊朗的石油出口将因为战争而中断，原油供应将显著下降。 然而，沙特的最新表态给原油交易者泼了一盆冷水。 知情人士称，沙特阿拉伯已制定应急计划，若美国对伊朗的军事打击导致中东石油运输中断，该国将立 即提高短期石油产量和出口量。 以沙特的实力，想要填平伊朗的石油缺口，虽有难度，但达成概率较高。其他产油国可能效仿沙特，纷 纷增产以获得超额利润。一旦连锁反应形成，即便美伊局势升级，原油的潜在上涨幅度将大打折扣。 OPEC+本周日将召开视频会议审议4月产量政策，消息人士称，4月将重新启动一系列小幅增产计划。 如果会议结果落地，结合沙特的增产意愿，今年以 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties between the US and Iran continue to influence oil prices, with a recent increase in oil price levels observed, particularly on February 10, where the SC2604 contract saw a rise of over 1% [3][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation is identified as a core factor affecting short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The US has issued new guidelines for ships flying the American flag to avoid Iranian territorial waters and to refuse boarding by Iranian military forces [4][7]. - The OPEC oil production in January decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, a reduction of 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria experiencing the largest decline. This decrease offsets production increases from some member countries, including Venezuela [4][7]. EU Sanctions - The European Union has proposed expanding sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports. The proposal includes listing the Kulevi port in Georgia and the Karimun port in Indonesia, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from trading with these ports [4][7]. Market Implications - The combination of fluctuating geopolitical factors and EU sanctions creates ongoing uncertainty in the supply chain, suggesting that oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in the short term [4][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current major driving factor for crude oil is geopolitical factors. With the U.S. increasing its military presence in the Middle East and potential actions against Iran, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by factors such as demand recovery, supply changes, and geopolitical situations. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For asphalt, with a slight decline in refinery production in February and weak demand in the off - season, attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream negative feedback [5]. - Rubber prices are affected by production and consumption data, as well as cost - side factors. They are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - Methanol supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $2.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a 3.50% increase; Brent March contract rose $2.31 to $70.71 per barrel, a 3.38% increase; SC2603 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, up 13.9 yuan per barrel, a 2.98% increase. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday. The current major driving factor for oil prices is geopolitical factors, and short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. As of the week of January 26, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, while Fujeirah's inventory increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is supported by demand, but there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future. High - sulfur fuel oil has mixed factors. Short - term prices of FU and LU are volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In February, refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the speed of social inventory accumulation [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed down on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A polyester factory in Shandong has shut down for maintenance, and a MEG device in Fujian has restarted. The polyester sector has a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and is expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. According to the ANRPC December report, global natural rubber production decreased and consumption increased in December. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. Rubber prices are expected to follow the macro - environment and cost - side price fluctuations [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends in different regions. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. MTO device load has decreased, and port inventory reduction is under pressure. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply is at a high level as some upstream maintenance devices have resumed production. Demand will weaken as downstream factories approach the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected to gradually start accumulating inventory, but short - term prices are strong due to cost and geopolitical risks, showing wide - range fluctuations [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is slowing down. PVC has a structure of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected to maintain bottom - level fluctuations, with support in the short - term and upward pressure in the long - term [8]. Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the daily basis data of various energy - chemical products on January 30, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. Market News - Due to U.S. President Trump's consideration of military strikes against Iran, an OPEC member, crude oil prices rose by more than 3%. Trump is weighing targeted strikes against Iranian security forces and leaders to support anti - government protesters and create conditions for regime change [11]. - Trump has deployed the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and warned Iran that the time to reach an agreement on its nuclear program is running out. The market is worried that U.S. military intervention will lead to an interruption in regional crude oil supply, and potential supply risks continue to support oil prices [11]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between fuel oil 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts, the spread between asphalt main and sub - main contracts, etc. [45][47][50] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - commodity contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils, etc. [61][64][66] - **Production Profit**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, such as the production profit of LLDPE, the processing fee of PTA, etc. [68][70]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

Group 1 - Crude oil futures rebounded from previous declines due to concerns over U.S. military actions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran [1] - Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial noted that fears surrounding Iran and the impending severe cold weather across much of the U.S. are supporting oil prices, outweighing global supply abundance and the planned talks between Russia and Ukraine [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 2.8% to $61.04 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.7% to $65.78 per barrel [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term EB2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The cost of international oil prices has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level, and the downstream operating rate will change differently [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the trading volume was 352,157 lots, a decrease of 155,060 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 375,459 lots, an increase of 594 lots; the net long position was - 37,350 lots, a decrease of 3,919 lots; the short position was 412,809 lots, an increase of 4,513 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 242,728 lots, a decrease of 15,148 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 360 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6964 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan. The FOB Korea intermediate price was 895 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6925, 7270, 7050, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200, 165, 175, and 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 19.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 399.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 277 cents/gallon, an increase of 2 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 789 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5400, 5405, and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100, 70, and 80 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.92%, an increase of 0.69%. The national inventory of styrene was 162,340 tons, a decrease of 9,420 tons; the inventory in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 3.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 46.72%, 69.8%, 58.9%, 39%, and 81.68% respectively, with changes of +3.08%, - 0.1%, - 1.5%, +3%, and +1.16% [2]. Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons. As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a decrease of 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 23.96% from last week [2]. Viewpoint Summary - There are no new plans for shutdown or restart of large - scale domestic styrene plants in the near future. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level. The operating rate of downstream EPS may increase slightly in the short term; the operating rate of the PS industry is expected to decline; the short - term supply of the ABS industry will not change much. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The international oil price has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyester chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating". [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester chip price will follow the raw materials to fluctuate in the short - term, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6180 yuan/ton. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main price of polyester chips dropped by 48 yuan to 5996 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade polyester chips was 6030 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of South China polyester chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 522 lots to 60,700 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 121 lots to 62,600 lots. [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester chip production was 335,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of polyester chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. [2] - **Export**: In November 2025, China's polyester chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons. [2] - **Production in December 2025**: The output of China's polyester chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The production capacity utilization rate was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] - **Oil Price**: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran remain uncertain. The international oil price rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 02 rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent oil futures contract 03 rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures contract 2602 fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/ton and then rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/ton in the night session. [2] - **Military News**: According to the U.S. "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of U.S. military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which triggered speculation about possible special operations in the region. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The U.S. attacked Venezuela, but the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected for the time being. The medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase after the U.S. "takeover", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of polyester chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the crude oil market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties due to the US - Venezuela event. The Venezuelan sea area's imports and exports will be affected by the blockade, and Iran has issued a strong condemnation with the escalation of the Israel - Iran situation. Supply may decline in the short - term if Venezuela enters a political transition, but the low absolute value of its output won't change the global surplus pattern in Q1. The price may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums but has limited upside elasticity. [6] - In the long - term, with political stability, new licenses, stable diluent logistics, and the expansion of US oil companies' operations, Venezuela's oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. It may become the largest supply increase uncertainty in 2026 - 2027. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From 2025/12/30 to 2026/01/07, WTI decreased by 1.14, BRENT by 0.74, and DUBAI by 0.81. Other related prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, SC decreased by 11.90, and domestic gasoline decreased by 40.00. [3] b. Daily News - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on January 7 that the US will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase its production. The Trump administration also considers establishing a compensation mechanism for US oil companies investing in Venezuela. [3] - US Attorney General Bondi said on January 8 that the US executed a seizure order on the "BELLA 1" oil tanker. The department is monitoring other vessels for similar actions. [4] - According to a source close to the White House, Venezuelan oil sales will continue indefinitely, and US sanctions on Venezuela will be reduced. Venezuela has a large proven oil reserve but a current daily output of about 800,000 barrels. [4] c. Inventory - In the week of January 2, US crude exports increased by 823,000 barrels per day to 4.263 million barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.811 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.832 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.91% decline. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 245,000 barrels to 413.5 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. [5] - The average four - week supply of US crude products was 19.871 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease from the previous year. [5] d. Weekly Viewpoints - Before the holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated. On January 2, foreign - market crude oil closed lower. The US - Venezuela event escalated over the weekend, bringing geopolitical uncertainties to the market. [5][6] - In the short - term, Venezuelan production may decline, but it won't change the global surplus pattern. In the long - term, production may increase, but the investment attitude of the industry is cautious. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is disturbed by geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate. The Venezuelan situation affects the supply of crude oil, and the market prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends under multiple factors such as supply - demand, cost, and geopolitics [1][3]. - The trading logic of the chemical market is disturbed by multiple favorable factors, and the strength - weakness relationship between varieties has changed significantly. The rebound of polyolefins has opened the import arbitrage window for polyethylene, and the current rebound may overdraw the future maintenance benefits of the industry [2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continuously disturb, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The supply of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to gradually normalize, and the global crude oil supply pressure continues. However, geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors guiding the crude oil supply expectation. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of supply surplus and frequent geopolitical disturbances [1][8]. - **Main Logic**: EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week of January 2, and the weekly production estimate decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate remained high, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased seasonally. If the US - Venezuelan crude oil trade volume increases and sanctions are reduced, the supply of Venezuela may recover slightly this year [8]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and it is regarded as short - term fluctuation [8]. Asphalt - **View**: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter. Venezuela is expected to transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US. The interruption expectation of Venezuelan crude oil exports is gradually alleviated, and the asphalt raw material supply interruption expectation is also relieved. The asphalt cracking spread is under pressure. The asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The asphalt is overvalued compared with fuel oil [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The Venezuelan situation is controllable, and the fuel oil futures price drops. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increase in the first quarter, and the supply of heavy oil will surge. The energy crisis in Iraq may lead to the resumption of fuel - oil power generation. However, the high - sulfur fuel oil demand is suppressed by the high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and the demand for fuel - oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and it is expected to face the trend of increased supply and decreased demand. Currently, the valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of high - sulfur substitution demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [11]. Methanol - **View**: The inventory accumulation along the coast slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is rational. The port inventory is in an accumulation state, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating that the reduction of imports is beneficial. However, the current MTO profit is not good, and the operation of some projects needs attention [29]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term stable and slightly strong [29]. Urea - **View**: The new order transactions push up the price close to the pressure level, and urea is regarded as fluctuating. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has high daily production and operation rate to meet previous orders. The demand side is cautious about high - price goods. The inventory is flat, and the sustainability of new order transactions near the price of 1800 yuan/ton needs attention [30]. - **Outlook**: It is regarded as short - term fluctuation [30]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The general rise of the coal - chemical industry boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. - **Main Logic**: The coal price rises, and the coal - chemical industry is supported by cost. However, the ethylene glycol's own inventory accumulation cycle is difficult to reverse, so the rebound space is limited [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price will fluctuate within the range, and the long - term inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with an operation range of [3700 - 3900] [22]. PX - **View**: The sector sentiment is warm, and the downstream demand still has support, so it maintains range consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the overall rise of downstream PTA is strong, which limits the decline of PX. The supply - demand variables are limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range, and the positive - spread logic is maintained [13]. PTA - **View**: The cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price to be firm. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is average during the day, and the cost support is insufficient. However, the domestic chemical product sector sentiment is high. The demand is expected to weaken, but the overall sentiment is warm, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. The overall supply - demand is in a tight pattern, and the spot market will fluctuate within a range [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate with the cost. The TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the medium - term, and short - sold in the range of 5200 - 5300. The TA05 - 09 can be positively spread on dips [15]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost provides certain support, but the demand sustainability is insufficient, and the profit is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate without a clear direction. The downstream demand is continuously insufficient, and some terminal enterprises may enter the holiday state after the middle of the month. The chemical product sentiment is warm, and the short - fiber price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [26]. Bottle - Chip - **View**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: The commodity market rises as a whole, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream terminal replenishment willingness is not high, which restricts the increase. It is expected that the market center of polyester bottle - chips will fluctuate and adjust [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw material, and the support for the processing fee increases [27]. Propylene (PL) - **View**: There is an expectation of PDH maintenance, and PL rises slightly. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance boosts the price. The enthusiasm of market participants has increased, and the enterprise inventory is low. The powder profit has been slightly repaired, but the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [36]. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates in the short term [36]. PP - **View**: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and PP rises cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is uncertain. The coal price rebounds in the short term, which indirectly boosts PP. It is the off - season for PP downstream, and the trading volume has decreased after the futures price rebound. The short - term maintenance has increased [35]. - **Outlook**: PP fluctuates in the short term [35]. LLDPE - **View**: The downstream trading volume has decreased, and the upward space of LLDPE is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the supply of crude oil is disturbed in the short term. The futures price rebounds slightly under the repair of macro - expectations, but the spot is weak, and the basis is weak. It is the off - season for plastic demand, and the demand support is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: LLDPE fluctuates in the short term [34]. PVC - **View**: There are frequent supply disturbances, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. From a domestic perspective, the marginal device operation rate has increased slightly, and the profit repair may increase the supply elasticity. From an overseas perspective, some PVC production capacity has withdrawn from the market. The downstream is in the off - season, and the export orders are average [39]. - **Outlook**: Supported by factors such as "anti - involution", spring maintenance expectations, and overseas device disturbances, PVC runs strongly. If the sentiment fades, the adjustment pressure on the disk will increase [39]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and caustic soda is driven up. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in the electricity cost of restricted - capacity caustic soda in Shaanxi boosts the market sentiment. The alumina marginal device profit is poor, and the demand for caustic soda has marginal support. The upstream production is stable, and the caustic soda cost is expected to increase [41]. - **Outlook**: The disk may fluctuate. The support comes from positive market sentiment and the expectation of cost increase, while the pressure comes from high inventory and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market faces geopolitical risk uncertainties. Venezuelan sea - area imports and exports are affected by the blockade, and the Iran - Israel situation has also escalated. The short - term price of crude oil may be affected by logistics disruptions and geopolitical premiums, but the upside price elasticity is small. [5] - In the short - term, if Venezuela enters a political transition period, its production may decline, with an extreme reduction of 30 - 50 barrels per day. However, the large surplus of global crude oil in the first quarter means this won't change the overall situation. [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, with a stable political environment, Venezuelan crude oil production could increase to 120 - 130 barrels per day within half a year. Venezuela may become the biggest uncertain supply increase factor from 2026 - 2027. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Price Changes**: From 2025/12/29 to 2026/01/06, WTI decreased by $1.19, BRENT by $1.06, and DUBAI by $1.16. SC increased by 6.50, and OMAN decreased by 1.13. [3] - **Differential Changes**: The differences such as WTI - BRENT, DUBAI - BRT, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, WTI - BRENT decreased by 0.13, and DUBAI - BRT increased by 0.16. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The US has asked Venezuela to cooperate only with the US in oil production and prioritize the US when selling heavy crude oil. [3] - Russia sent submarines to escort an oil tanker that the US tried to seize near Venezuela, and Russia asked the US to stop the pursuit. [4] - Trump said Venezuela's interim management will hand over 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned oil to the US. [4] - Iran's Defense Committee warned that it may launch a preemptive strike if it perceives an imminent threat to its security. [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - In the week of December 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day. [4] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day. [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 405,000 barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.1% increase. [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.539 million barrels per day, a 0.75% decrease compared to the same period last year. [6] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 413 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. [6] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.086 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6]