Group 1 - The next round of domestic oil price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with an expected decrease of approximately 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1][2] - The oil price trend this year has been highly volatile, resembling a roller coaster [3] - The 18th price adjustment was particularly dramatic, with initial expectations of a 90 yuan increase per ton, but international oil prices unexpectedly dropped, resulting in a 50 yuan decrease instead [5][6][7] Group 2 - The recent decline in international oil prices is attributed to a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, which rose by 3.9 million barrels, exceeding market expectations [9][10] - Additionally, OPEC announced plans to restore a daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels in September and to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [12][13][14] Group 3 - The current national average prices for 92-octane gasoline vary by region, with the lowest price in Urumqi at 6.89 yuan and the highest in Hainan at 8.23 yuan [21][26] - For 95-octane gasoline, prices range from 7.40 yuan in Shaanxi to 8.74 yuan in Hainan, indicating regional disparities influenced by demand and transportation costs [30][31]

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Core View - Geopolitical situation has not affected crude oil supply, and the market is calmer after the Israel-Iran conflict. OPEC+ continues to increase production, which is marginally bearish, so the outlook for oil prices is mainly bearish [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $61.80, closing at $62.19, with a high of $62.98, a low of $61.73, a rise of 0.93%, and a trading volume of 12.62 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.23, closing at $66.53, with a high of $67.38, a low of $66.12, a rise of 0.77%, and a trading volume of 30.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 483 yuan/barrel, closing at 486.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 489.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 481.9 yuan/barrel, a rise of 0.58%, and a trading volume of 10.34 million lots [6] - **News**: Israel raided Qatar to target Hamas leaders, but oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. OPEC+ members submitted a new compensation production cut plan, reducing this year's production cut and strengthening that of 2026, with an overall increase in the total production cut. Kazakhstan's production cut will increase sharply after February 2026, but its implementation is questionable, which is bearish for the near - term supply side. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October to gradually lift the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreed in April 2023. The production increase rate has slowed down, and it is expected to take one year to fully reach the 1.65 million barrels per day increase. Since the market is in a supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, the production increase is still marginally bearish for the oil market fundamentals [6][7] Industry News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that more sanctions should be imposed on Russia, including accelerating the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and considering sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third countries [8] - Deutsche Bank expects the WTI crude oil price to remain at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent (the previous forecast for 2026 was $67) [8] - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the downside risk due to increased market supply surplus is rising [8] - According to the Financial Times, Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [8] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Bloomberg, and Wind [11][12][15]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump's warning of secondary tariffs on Russia and the actual decline in Russian crude oil exports have intensified concerns about supply shortages, but even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market favors a stronger near - term monthly spread and a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly declined. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, with some support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production schedule [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily News - Kpler reported that the discount on Russian crude oil export prices has widened due to the pressure from the US and the EU on Russian oil buyers, which has hit demand. Indian state - owned refineries are considering suspending imports of Russian oil, and private enterprises are also slowing down their purchases. The price of Urals crude oil is now more than $5 per barrel cheaper than the North Sea crude oil price index, compared with almost zero spread two weeks ago [3]. - Putin said that the UAE is one of the suitable places to meet with Trump, and he doesn't mind meeting Zelensky. After a refinery was attacked by drones, Russia plans to increase its oil exports to the West to nearly 2 million barrels per day in August [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - EIA reports showed that in the week ending August 1st, US crude oil exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.71%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.616 million barrels per day, a 1.61% increase compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 174,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - From July 25th - 31st, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically unchanged. The output of Chinese refineries showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, and the inventory also showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries declined [4]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices first rose and then fell, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increased. Trump's warning of secondary tariffs on Russia and the actual decline in Russian crude oil exports have intensified concerns about supply shortages, but extreme sanctions will not change the oversupply pattern. OPEC's decision to increase production in September led to a quick decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below the $70 per barrel mark [5]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on goods from 67 trading partners by one week, and the poor July non - farm payrolls data led the market to bet on a September interest rate cut. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, higher than the same period last year by about 2%. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased, ARA diesel inventories decreased, and Singapore diesel inventories increased slightly but were at a low level compared to the same period last year. Global refinery profits declined this week, and the refinery operating season is coming to an end. The main uncertainties lie in the intensity of US secondary sanctions on Russia. After the statement of OPEC +, the absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall, with some support in reality, and is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - This week, oil prices rose and then fell, with the month spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia. If Russia does not agree to a major peace agreement with Ukraine, a 100% tariff will be imposed on countries buying Russian oil, which makes the market worried about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to think that the near - end month spreads will strengthen, and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [6] - OPEC decided to increase the oil production increase in September and implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day starting from September. With OPEC's "guaranteed production commitment", oil prices dropped rapidly, and Brent crude oil fell below the $70 per barrel mark. [6] - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the effective time of the 15% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners by one week, giving countries a window period for negotiation. The July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, the market employment deteriorated, and the market urgently bet on a rate cut in September. [6] - Fundamentally, global oil stocks decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline stocks decreased while diesel stocks increased. Global refinery profits declined this week, and the refinery operation is coming to an end. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after OPEC+'s statement, but there is still support in reality. It is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From July 30 to August 5, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $70.00 to $65.16, a decrease of $4.84; BRENT crude oil price dropped from $73.24 to $67.64, a decrease of $5.60; DUBAI crude oil price dropped from $70.85 to $69.56, a decrease of $1.29. [3] - During the same period, SC decreased by 5.50, OMAN decreased by 1.28, domestic gasoline decreased by 60.00, and Japan naphtha CFR decreased by 7.61. [3][14] 2. Daily News - Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet. He will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after the meeting with Russia on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, but the result is undetermined. [3][4] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 1 was - 4.233 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.845 million barrels and a previous value of 1.539 million barrels. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day, while domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [5] - In the same week, US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week; commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [5][6][16] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.55%. [16]

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. rose to the highest level since January in May [1] Group 1 - The increase in supply indicates a potential recovery in the energy sector, reflecting higher production levels [1] - This rise in supply may influence market dynamics, potentially affecting pricing and investment strategies within the oil and gas industry [1] - The data suggests a strengthening of the U.S. energy market, which could attract more investments and lead to increased competition among energy companies [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the peak season, crude oil consumption may be lower than expected, and oil prices are likely to move sideways in the short term. It is necessary to continue to monitor consumption and Saudi Arabia's supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes**: WTI closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 0.76%; Brent closed at $68.67 per barrel, down 0.78%; SC closed at 503.7 yuan per barrel, down 0.57%. API data showed that as of the week ending on the 18th, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 575,000 barrels week - on - week, but gasoline inventories increased significantly, causing oil prices to fall again [6] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The three major institutions' July reports showed little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, most OPEC countries completed compensatory production cuts, but there were differences in the estimates of Saudi Arabia's oil production. High - frequency data indicated that U.S. refined oil consumption was slightly lower than expected [7] 3.2 行业要闻 - The IEA stated that global LNG supply will see the largest increase since 2019 next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. has become a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria for the first time [10] 3.3 数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI fund positions, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [11][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices, with a potential slight decrease expected on July 15, amidst fluctuating international oil prices and geopolitical factors [1][2] Group 2 - International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, initially rising over 5% due to geopolitical tensions, followed by a sharp decline due to unexpected increases in oil inventory, leading to a reassessment of energy demand [2] - The International Energy Agency's announcement of tighter global oil supply and a 35% tariff on Canadian oil provided a boost to oil prices, reversing the downward trend [2] Group 3 - Predictions for domestic oil price adjustments indicate a potential decrease of approximately 145 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of 0.11 to 0.13 yuan per liter for gasoline [3] - The volatility in international oil prices may affect the final adjustment, with the possibility of the decrease being less than 100 yuan per ton if prices continue to rise before the adjustment [3] Group 4 - A review of the first 13 oil price adjustments in 2023 shows a mixed trend, with 6 increases and 5 decreases, leading to a cumulative reduction of only 95 yuan per ton for gasoline and 90 yuan per ton for diesel [4] - The overall trend indicates a narrowing of the price reduction despite some earlier significant decreases, with recent adjustments resulting in increased consumer costs [4] Group 5 - Regional price variations for 95 and 98 octane gasoline are noted, with higher prices in the southwest due to complex terrain and transportation costs, while the northwest benefits from lower costs due to refinery concentration [5][12] - Specific prices for 95 octane gasoline range from 7.66 yuan per liter in the northwest to 8.06 yuan per liter in the southwest, while 98 octane gasoline prices vary significantly across regions, with Guangdong reaching 10.00 yuan per liter [10][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term strategy for oil prices is to wait and see as they are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations, and the medium - term strategy is to take a short position [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent significant declines in US commercial crude oil inventories are due to a combination of factors including slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports. The wildfires in Canada previously led to supply reduction, but with the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and future North American supply may mainly rely on the growth of Canadian oil sands production capacity [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 55 cents to $64.92 per barrel, a 0.85% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 54 cents to $67.68 per barrel, a 0.80% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.77% at 505 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending June 23, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 19.12 million barrels, a 3.8% increase from the previous week, hitting a five - week high. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.332 million barrels to 6.738 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 0.151 million barrels to 2.044 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.882 million barrels to 10.338 million barrels [1] - Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% and the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% [1] - For the week ending June 20 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (expected - 0.797 million barrels, previous value - 11.473 million barrels); EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.464 million barrels (previous value - 0.995 million barrels); US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.944 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.44 million barrels per day from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 5.836 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 1.39% decrease [1] - US President Trump said that the US will hold talks with Iran next week. He believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may break out again. He doesn't think Iran will resume its nuclear program. The US will not give up pressuring Iran and will not take over oil [1] Investment Logic - The recent significant decline in US commercial crude oil inventories is due to slower production growth, high refinery operations, and reduced net imports, especially the supply reduction caused by Canadian wildfires. With the end of the wildfires, Canadian pipeline imports are expected to recover, and inventory reduction may slow down. In the medium term, as US crude oil production peaks, the US is unlikely to bring substantial supply - side increments, and this year's US crude oil export data has reflected this feature, with net export volume of shipments no longer contributing to the increment [2] Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see as oil prices are in the process of bottom - building through fluctuations; Medium - term: Take a short position [3] Risk - Downside risks: Faster OPEC production increase rhythm, macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced mixed results on June 25, with urea and red dates leading gains of over 2% [1] - The SC crude oil futures contract fell by over 8%, while high-sulfur fuel oil dropped more than 5% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1374.19 points, down 16.51 points or 1.19% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Urea and Red Dates - Urea futures saw a strong rebound with a 2.47% increase, recovering losses from earlier in the week due to increased demand and inventory depletion expectations [2] - Concerns over weather conditions affecting red date production led to a rise of over 2%, reaching a four-month high, despite current low consumption levels [2] Group 3: Other Commodities - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon both increased by over 1%, with ferrosilicon reaching a one-month high [3] - The overall market sentiment improved, contributing to gains in coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and nickel, all closing up by over 1% [3] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to decline due to easing geopolitical tensions, with SC crude oil futures down 8.13% [4] - Despite a decrease in U.S. API crude oil inventories, concerns about supply disruptions remain, limiting the extent of price declines [4] - The outlook for oil prices remains cautious, with potential for further declines due to OPEC+ production increases and high tariffs affecting global demand [4] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Rates - The shipping market for the European route saw its fifth consecutive day of declines, with a drop of 3.07% in the main contract [5] - Freight rates for routes from Shanghai to European ports have decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [5] - The expectation of price increases by airlines has diminished due to weakened market sentiment and competition among carriers [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, with various products having different outlooks such as "oscillate", "oscillate weakly", etc., based on the specific situation of each product [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become the core factor driving oil prices, with high uncertainty. The ongoing Iran - US nuclear negotiations are accompanied by military threats. If geopolitical concerns are disproven, the pressure of increased production may drive oil prices down. However, if military action occurs, it could provide significant upward potential for oil prices. The chemical industry shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weak outlook [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to intensified oil price fluctuations. SC2507 closed at 495.7 yuan/barrel on June 12, with a change of +3.68%. Brent2508 closed at 70.34 dollars/barrel, with a change of -0.62%. The Middle East situation is the key factor, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to oscillate after a rapid rise [4] - **LPG**: Cost support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil. However, domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt cracking spread continues to decline. The asphalt futures closed at 3527 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3670 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3725 yuan/ton respectively [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp rise, it has fallen back. The main contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price oscillates following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with low valuation, and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [7] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and it oscillates. The spot price in Taicang on June 12 was 2370 yuan/ton, and the port inventory increased to 65.22 tons on June 11 [15] - **Urea**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is operating weakly. The factory and market low - end prices on June 12 were 1730 and 1715 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily production was 20.74 tons [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethane imports may return to normal, and EG has adjusted significantly. The spot price on June 12 was around 4315 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was about 63.4 tons on June 9 [11] - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. The CFR price in Taiwan on June 12 was 818 dollars/ton. The Asian PX operating rate will further increase, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle [10] - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening. The spot price on June 12 was 4855 yuan/ton, and the polyester sales were weak. The 250 - ton PTA device in Shandong has reached full capacity [10] - **Short Fibre**: Production cuts support processing fees, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The sales rate on June 9 was 60% on average, and the export growth rate from January to April was 33% [11][12] - **Bottle Chip**: The production is at a high level with oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [13][14] - **PP**: Although the oil price rebounds, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and it oscillates. The mainstream transaction price in East China on June 12 was 7100 yuan/ton, and the supply is still increasing [16][17] - **Plastic**: The raw material end provides a boost, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand, and it oscillates. The mainstream LLDPE price on June 12 was 7170 yuan/ton, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - expectations, it rebounds. The spot price in East China on June 12 was 7780 yuan/ton. However, the rebound drive may not be sustainable, and the supply may increase while the demand is weak [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and it operates weakly. The benchmark price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the long - term [18] - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center has shifted downwards, and it operates weakly. The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2719 yuan/ton, and the demand is weak while the supply is expected to increase [18] (2) Variety Data Monitoring (i) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spreads and their changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) being 4 with a change of 0, Brent (M1 - M2) being 0.8 with a change of - 0.05, etc. [19] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of - 61, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [20] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are also data on inter - variety spreads and their changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 141 with a change of - 14 [21]