Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2604 fluctuated weakly, closing at 9,968 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, combined with the unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory, leading to a correction in international oil prices during the day. In terms of domestic supply and demand, the 600,000 - ton Gulei plant was shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. The production of styrene decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79%. The downstream operating rates of styrene varied, with the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreasing by 1.55% to 261,100 tons. The styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, the East China port inventory increased by 3.83% to 1.625 million tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 27.45% to 370,000 tons. The domestic spring maintenance expectation was gradually realized, but the restart of the 670,000 - ton faulty plant of Jingbo weakened the impact of maintenance, and the styrene capacity utilization rate was expected to decline slightly. In the short term, there was limited room for the downstream operating rate to continue to rise, but the downstream inventory continued to be depleted and the profit continued to recover, without forming a negative feedback on styrene. The visible inventory was depleted smoothly, and the inventory was expected to remain at a neutral level. Currently, there was still great uncertainty in the Middle East situation, and EB2604 was expected to fluctuate due to news - related disturbances in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for styrene was 9,968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan. The trading volume was 212,621 less. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 42,538 hands, the short position decreased by 31,766 hands, and the net long position decreased by 10,772 hands. The 3 - month contract closing price was 10,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 294 yuan. The futures open interest decreased by 20,670 hands, and the warehouse receipt quantity was 0 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 10,025 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in South China, Northeast, North, and East China were 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,400 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 100 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 636 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton. The FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 58 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 397 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 1,086.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in Rotterdam was 1,085 US dollars/ton. The market prices of pure benzene in South China, East China, and North China were 7,800 yuan/ton, 8,285 yuan/ton, and 8,085 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The overall production of Chinese styrene plants from March 6th to 12th was 360,100 tons, a decrease of 3.12% month - on - month; the plant capacity utilization rate was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32% month - on - month. The national inventory of styrene decreased by 210 tons, and the total inventory in the East China main port was 162,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 67.4%, 57.78%, 51.7%, 38.3%, and 75.65% respectively, with changes of - 0.2%, - 2.1%, + 0.2%, no data, and - 1.76% [2] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, the consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 1.55% to 261,100 tons. As of March 12th, the styrene factory inventory was 191,900 tons, a decrease of 7.70% compared with last week. As of March 16th, the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 162,500 tons, an increase of 3.83% compared with last week; the inventory in South China ports was 370,000 tons, a decrease of 27.45% [2] Data - As of March 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 73.28 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 1,389.92 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience high - level oscillations. Geopolitical factors are the main cause of the oil price increase, and the easing of the geopolitical situation will lead the oil price to return to the supply - demand relationship. The supply reduction supports the chemical futures prices, while the weakening demand drags them down. Overall, the situation is slightly in favor of the bulls [2]. - The crude oil market is expected to remain in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Other chemical products such as asphalt, fuel oil, and various petrochemical products also show different trends of oscillation, mainly affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: The shortage expectation continues, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. - **Main Logic**: With the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil market faces a large supply gap. Persian Gulf countries are forced to cut production due to inventory pressure, and the number of in - transit cargo ships globally is decreasing. The later impact will gradually spread to the inventory reduction of crude oil - importing countries. The expected deviation mainly comes from the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of attacks on oil fields and terminals in the Middle East also challenges the supply. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [11]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The strength of fuel oil is transmitted to asphalt. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors are the core influence on oil prices. The decline in the asphalt - fuel oil price difference may lead to a significant reduction in asphalt refinery production. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [13]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive high - sulfur fuel oil back to a high level. - **Main Logic**: The current geopolitical tension, high import dependence, and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil are pushing up the futures price. The tension in the Iranian geopolitical situation affects the export of fuel oil and natural gas in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Oscillate [14]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. During the oil price increase, its valuation has been significantly repaired. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high - sulfur fuel oil. The export tax - rebate rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to it. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and the limited substitution demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [15]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Under the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions, the supply of PX is expected to be tight. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation is still intense, and international oil prices are at a high level. Refineries in Northeast Asia have reduced their production to varying degrees. The planned and unplanned losses of PX are increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in equipment and the downstream's ability to bear high prices. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. In the short term, the PX price will oscillate strongly under the support of cost and the impact of actual supply. In the medium term, the logic of buying at low prices remains, and the PX05 - 09 spread is expected to be in a positive spread at low prices. The PXN is expected to be in a wide - range adjustment of [250, 380] US dollars per ton [17]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in filament production exerts some pressure on TA, but the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing cost support. PTA follows the upward trend of raw materials. Traders are actively selling goods, and the spot basis is strengthening. PTA factories are also reducing production, and the supply is shrinking. Attention should be paid to the changes in the reduction scale of downstream polyester factories. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short term, and the price has stronger support at the bottom [17]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil and commodity sentiment dominate the fluctuations, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a tight supply of crude oil and Asian naphtha. Some refineries have reduced production. The downstream profits are acceptable, and the value of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the production of domestic and foreign refineries may be reduced, and the de - stocking of pure benzene is advanced [20]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to the supply and demand of styrene, and styrene oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is still dominated by geopolitical factors. The supply is expected to decrease due to equipment maintenance and production reduction. The downstream performance is acceptable, but the support for the price is weakening. The non - integrated profit is neutral to low, and some factories may reduce production or conduct maintenance. There is an expected increase in exports. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, domestic and foreign production may be reduced, and export demand may increase [21]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in the production of oil - based plants is gradually emerging, and the supply is expected to be significantly reduced. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, and domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises continue to reduce production. The load of domestic ethylene glycol has dropped to around 67%. The cost is supported by high oil prices. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve significantly from March to May, and the price fluctuates widely at a high level. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The price oscillates strongly in the short term. It is advisable to buy at low prices in the medium - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously in the short term. Attention should be paid to reducing positions when the EG05 - 09 spread is high [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are at a high level, providing strong cost support. The domestic supply shortage and raw material supply interruption expectations impact the market again. The downstream is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and some yarn factories may consider reducing or stopping production due to the pressure of high - priced raw materials. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The short - fiber price follows the upward trend of upstream products, maintains an oscillating and strong trend in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support at the bottom. The price volatility is large, and cautious operation is required [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Supported by upstream costs, the spot of bottle chips is in short supply, and the price increase is significant. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost remains high, driving the price of polyester bottle chips to rise. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the supply - demand situation is tight, with a good overall fundamental situation. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of raw materials, the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced, and the position of buying PR and shorting TA can be considered in the short term [27]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The inland market atmosphere is strong, and the arbitrage window with the port market is opened. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Overseas, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, affecting the domestic import end. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market tends to trade geopolitical premiums, which are difficult to disappear in the short term. Although the futures price is dragged down by the weak fundamentals after reaching a high level, there is still room for an upward trend, and it should be regarded as an oscillating range [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand sentiment is positive, but policy constraints are significant, and urea oscillates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On March 16, 2026, urea oscillated and consolidated. The supply is abundant, and the demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is improving. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased. The spot market is supported by the international market, but the mainstream enterprise quotations are stable under the policy constraints. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The current urea fundamentals are relatively stable. The supply remains at a high level, the support from agricultural demand is slightly weakening, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The spot price is restricted by policy price limits. The market price may rise slightly, and overall, it should be regarded as an oscillating and consolidating trend [32]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production continues to decline slightly, and PE should be viewed with caution. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The energy - chemical sentiment is still volatile in the short term, and the refinery's production decline supports the near - month contracts. The spot price fluctuates widely, and downstream transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The raw material end still provides support, but downstream demand is affected by price increases [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Downstream transactions are cautious, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz leads to a large supply gap in the crude oil market. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are still under pressure, providing support for the price. The coal - based profits have been significantly repaired, and the overall production is decreasing. If logistics is continuously blocked, the production of oil - based refineries may further decline. The PP spot price fluctuates widely, and transactions are average. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The spot transactions are average, and the raw materials of crude oil and propane still provide support [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The refinery's production is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates widely. The downstream buying demand has increased, boosting market confidence. The enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved, and the quotations have slightly increased. The premium in the auction is obvious, and the high - end transactions have increased, driving up the actual transaction price. The short - term powder profit is compressed, and the downstream factory acceptance is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The production is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and PVC is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply disturbance expectations of energy - chemical products are increasing. At the micro level, production has been reduced both at home and abroad, and the PVC inventory is being reduced. The overall supply is decreasing, the downstream production has improved, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases is not high. The overseas price has soared, and foreign merchants are on the sidelines. The supply of crude oil and naphtha is blocked, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC is rising. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and the cost support and supply reduction expectations of energy - chemical products are strong. At the micro level, the production reduction scale at home and abroad has expanded, the caustic soda export situation has improved, and inventory reduction is expected. The alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching a match, the inventory of large alumina factories in Shandong is being reduced, the non - aluminum production has entered the peak season, and the high - price chasing enthusiasm has decreased. The recent caustic soda export orders are good, and the supply is decreasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The production reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the futures price, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the upstream raw material supply shortage [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 4.74 US dollars per barrel, with a change of 0.51 US dollars per barrel; the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 1206 yuan per ton, with a change of - 92 yuan per ton [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different characteristics. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 404 yuan per ton, with a change of - 285 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt is 138,280 tons [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. also have corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 137 yuan per ton, with a change of 77 yuan per ton [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and detailed content for each variety is provided in the text, so it cannot be summarized in detail. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2607.75, with a change of - 0.63%; the commodity 20 index is 2943.75, with a change of - 1.02%; the industrial product index is 2578.45, with a change of - 0.05% [282]. - **Energy Index**: On March 16, 2026, the energy index is 1811.34, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a 5 - day increase of 5.07%, a 1 - month increase of 57.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 66.70% [284].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA market price increased significantly. Due to the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices rose sharply, and concerns about supply disruptions intensified. With the traditional peak season approaching, the cost - side push and the expectation of demand recovery led to a significant increase in the PTA market price [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, Yisheng New Materials reduced its load near the weekend. Due to the restart of some devices last week, domestic PTA supply increased slightly. The terminal performance was poor, the restart of polyester maintenance devices was postponed, and PTA inventory increased slightly [2]. - For the future, TA terminal orders are not ideal, and downstream resistance is strong. PTA social inventory is expected to continue to increase. However, geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and there is no sign of alleviation in the short term. The pressure of tightening crude oil supply still exists in the next cycle. Geopolitical situation and oil price changes are the main variables in the PTA market recently [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA market price increased significantly this week. Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and concerns about supply disruptions increased. The approaching traditional peak season, cost - side push, and demand recovery expectation drove the price up. In terms of supply and demand, PTA supply increased slightly, terminal performance was poor, and inventory increased slightly [2]. - For the future, terminal orders are not good, downstream resistance is strong, and inventory is expected to increase. Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the pressure of tightening crude oil supply remains. Geopolitical situation and oil price changes are the main variables [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | Yuan/ton | 6832.00 | 6030.00 | 900.00 | 17.54% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 152.73 | 152.15 | 0.58 | 0.38% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 86.22 | 81.35 | 4.87 | 6.00% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 51.25 | 42.36 | 8.89 | 21.00% | Weekly | | PXN | Yuan/ton | 214 | 297 | - 83 | - 27.95% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | Yuan/ton | 6978 | 5881 | 1097 | 18.65% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are charts showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [6][7][9]. PX Supply - There are charts showing PX output in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][14][17]. PTA Market - There is a chart showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are charts showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [24][28]. PTA Consumption - There are charts showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament, and polyester staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [30][32][34]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a chart showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts support crude oil prices, and the impact of poor crude oil logistics has fermented. PTA plants in Zhejiang and Shandong have started to reduce production, and those in Fujian are about to do so. The possibility of production cuts by PX and PTA enterprises will continue to increase, and the PTA market will surge [2]. - The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, they have faced tight crude oil supplies and had to reduce their loads. Asian naphtha cracking units have significantly reduced production and shut down [2]. - The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are in short supply. Due to extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment is rapid, and the operating load of polyester is lower than expected. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 662.0 yuan/barrel on March 11, 2026, to 722.3 yuan/barrel on March 12, 2026, with a change of 60.30 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA-SC decreased from 1849.2 yuan/ton to 1749.0 yuan/ton, a change of -100.21 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC decreased from 1.3844 to 1.3332, a change of -0.0512 [2]. - CFR China PX increased from 1217 to 1305, a change of 88 [2]. - PX-naphtha spread increased from 376 to 430, a change of 54 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price increased from 6660 yuan/ton to 6998 yuan/ton, a change of 338.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot price increased from 6320 yuan/ton to 7030 yuan/ton, a change of 710.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot processing fee increased from (11.9) yuan/ton to 231.1 yuan/ton, a change of 243.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Disk processing fee decreased from 328.1 yuan/ton to 204.1 yuan/ton, a change of -124.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Main contract basis decreased from (14) to (22), a change of -8.0 [2]. - PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 126068 to 143618, a change of 17550 [2]. - MEG main contract futures price increased from 4577 yuan/ton to 4653 yuan/ton, a change of 76.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG-naphtha increased from (294.95) yuan/ton to (294.14) yuan/ton, a change of 0.8 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 4400 yuan/ton to 4715 yuan/ton, a change of 315.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Main contract basis decreased from -55 to -85, a change of -30.0 [2]. Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 80.34%, with a change of 0.00% [2]. - PTA operating rate decreased from 79.81% to 77.57%, a change of -2.24% [2]. - MEG operating rate decreased from 54.19% to 53.88%, a change of -0.31% [2]. - Polyester load decreased from 84.88% to 84.49%, a change of -0.39% [2]. Product Data - POY150D/48F increased from 8515 to 9240, a change of 725.0 [2]. - POY cash flow increased from 387 to 400, a change of 13.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 8735 to 9460, a change of 725.0 [2]. - FDY cash flow increased from 107 to 120, a change of 13.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 9905 to 10690, a change of 785.0 [2]. - DTY cash flow increased from 577 to 650, a change of 73.0 [2]. - Filament sales rate increased from 9% to 10%, a change of 1% [2]. - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber increased from 7885 to 8480, a change of 595 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 107 to (10), a change of -117.0 [2]. - Staple fiber sales rate decreased from 64% to 57%, a change of -7% [2]. - Semi-gloss chip increased from 7040 to 7650, a change of 610.0 [2]. - Chip cash flow decreased from (188) to (290), a change of -102.0 [2]. - Chip sales rate decreased from 25% to 10%, a change of -15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 million-ton PTA plant in East China has returned to normal operation after a shutdown for maintenance around February 10 [2]. - A 3.6 million-ton PTA plant in East China has returned to normal operation after operating at 50% capacity [2]. - A 1.25 million-ton PTA plant in South China has returned to normal operation after maintenance in mid-January [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues lead to an increase in crude oil prices, and concerns about production cuts by PX enterprises in South Korea and China affect PTA plant loads, resulting in a strong bullish sentiment in the PTA market and rising prices. The Asian PX market has a resurgence of speculative sentiment, but the physical supply is tight, and PX physical goods are in short supply. The polyester's operating load is lower than expected, and downstream operations after the Spring Festival are generally sluggish. South Korea, India, and Thailand may face significant operational difficulties [2]. - The tense situation in the Middle East causes market chaos. Northeast Asian refineries are highly dependent on crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these refineries face tight crude oil supplies and have to reduce their loads. Asian naphtha cracking units have large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. Domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in price due to concerns about reduced raw materials [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 664.1 yuan/barrel on March 5, 2026, to 664.8 yuan/barrel on March 6, 2026, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - The PTA - SC spread increased from 993.9 yuan/ton to 1238.8 yuan/ton, a change of 244.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2059 to 1.2564, a change of 0.0505 [2]. - CFR China PX price increased from 1055 to 1079, a change of 24; the PX - naphtha spread increased from 279 to 303, a change of 24 [2]. - PTA's main futures price increased from 5820 yuan/ton to 6070 yuan/ton, a change of 250 yuan/ton; the spot price increased from 5800 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, a change of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA's spot processing fee increased from 313.8 yuan/ton to 367.3 yuan/ton, a change of 53.5 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing fee increased from 323.8 yuan/ton to 447.3 yuan/ton, a change of 123.5 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG's main futures price increased from 4184 yuan/ton to 4377 yuan/ton, a change of 193 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 257.25 yuan/ton to - 236.44 yuan/ton, a change of 20.8 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG's domestic price increased from 4132 yuan/ton to 4267 yuan/ton, a change of 135 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate decreased from 88.08% to 83.68%, a change of - 4.40% [2]. - PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 79.81% [2]. - MEG operating rate decreased from 59.01% to 57.93%, a change of - 1.08% [2]. - Polyester load of POY150D/48F increased from 80.39% to 80.92%, a change of 0.53% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow Changes in the Polyester Industry - In polyester filament, the price of POY150D/48F increased from 7615 to 7700, a change of 85; the cash - flow decreased from 22 to 6, a change of - 16 [2]. - The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 7780 to 7910, a change of 130; the cash - flow increased from - 313 to - 284, a change of 29 [2]. - The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 8670 to 8745, a change of 75; the cash - flow decreased from - 123 to - 149, a change of - 26 [2]. - In polyester staple fiber, the price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple increased from 7235 to 7375, a change of 140; the cash - flow increased from - 8 to 31, a change of 39 [2]. - In polyester chips, the price of semi - bright chips increased from 6445 to 6600, a change of 155; the cash - flow increased from - 248 to - 194, a change of 54 [2]. Sales Ratios - The sales ratio of polyester filament remained unchanged at 107% [2]. - The sales ratio of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 93% [2]. - The sales ratio of polyester chips remained unchanged at 205% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has resumed normal operation. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 20 - 50% capacity, has resumed normal operation. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has resumed normal operation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the main factor driving the strength of crude oil prices. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries, and the chemical industry as a whole is expected to continue the strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries. The Brent spread continues to strengthen, and the domestic spread shows high - level fluctuations. The price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino - US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is released, but the profit is significantly compressed. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - and long - term valuation is expected to decline. The influencing factors are the sharp rise or fall of crude oil prices [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, the futures price continues to rise sharply. In the medium and long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The short - term outlook is to pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the sharp rise of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The expectation of raw material supply interruption strengthens, and the short - term is expected to be strong. The medium - term logic of buying on dips remains, and the PXN is expected to be sorted out in the range of [220, 280] US dollars/ton [12]. - **PTA**: The market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, and the basis strengthens significantly. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the rise of crude oil prices, although the inventory pressure is still large, the fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared with Q4. It is expected to be strong and volatile [17]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the rise of crude oil and the reduction of supply due to device maintenance, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to be strong and volatile in March [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the import volume in April is expected to decrease significantly. The short - term is expected to be strong, and the medium - term is to buy on dips [21]. - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Driven by the cost, it is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support below [23]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: Driven by the rise of raw materials, the market trading atmosphere recovers, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. The support for the processing fee below is enhanced [25]. - **Methanol**: The demand is weak, which drags down the geopolitical drive. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The influencing factors include the sharp rise of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, supply - side disturbances, and downstream negative feedback [27]. - **Urea**: There is a coexistence of demand support and policy guidance. It is expected to fluctuate and sort out. The influencing factors include the sharp rise or fall of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, demand exceeding expectations, and policy control risks [29]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible reduction of PE imports, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [32]. - **PP**: Affected by the rise of oil prices, the indirect boost of methanol and propane, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [33]. - **PL**: Boosted by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **PVC**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the supply reduction expectation of ethylene - based PVC increases. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the geopolitical conflict [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Overseas production cuts boost domestic exports. It is expected to be strong and volatile. The influencing factors include poor demand, sharp decline in spot prices, macro - disturbances, and excessive replenishment in the middle and lower reaches [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 3.8 with a change of 0.41 US dollars/barrel [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 109 yuan/ton with a change of 21 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 188 yuan/ton with a change of - 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index is 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial product index is 2430.86, up 1.36% [280]. - **Energy Index**: On March 5, 2026, the energy index is 1558.52, with a daily increase of 4.14%, a 5 - day increase of 31.66%, a 1 - month increase of 33.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 43.43% [282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of benchmark crude oils Brent and SC have been strengthening recently. The main contract of SC has risen to around 650 yuan per barrel, and Brent reached around $83 per barrel on Wednesday. The strength of refined oil has exceeded market expectations, with significant increases in the crack spreads of diesel and aviation kerosene. The natural gas price in Europe has continued to be strong due to the shutdown of Qatari gas fields and liquefaction plants [2]. - More refineries announced force majeure or production cuts on Wednesday, which will affect the pattern of the entire chemical and oil product markets in the next few months. Refined oil and chemicals are about to enter the peak spring maintenance period from March to May. Even though the 2026 maintenance is expected to be relatively light, the crack spreads of middle distillates have increased significantly due to factors such as reduced Russian exports. Currently, a forced heavy - maintenance is being implemented in global refineries, leading to a greater reduction in inventories of refined oil and chemicals. Even after the geopolitical conflict ends, the profit levels of refined oil and chemicals will be lifted [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US President Trump said on March 3 that the US Navy would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the US International Development Finance Corporation would provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region. On March 4, the supply of oil through the "Friendship" oil pipeline to Slovakia remained suspended. The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.2% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the spreads of both domestic and foreign markets have continued to rise. The US crude oil has continued its seasonal inventory build - up, but the build - up rate has slowed down compared to last week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its high level, the inventory pressure of refined oil has decreased. If the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it may lead to shipping difficulties and increased production suspension pressure for Middle - Eastern countries, posing an upward risk to oil prices. However, if there are signs of geopolitical easing or expectations of increased traffic volume, oil prices will still be under pressure. Currently, it is still a high - volatility period dominated by geopolitics, and price risks are high. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - volatility freight rates on the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [6]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Geopolitical tensions have led to a reduction in crude oil supply. After the fermentation of geopolitical premiums, there is significant uncertainty in the later situation, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main asphalt futures closed at 3,660 yuan per ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3,430 yuan per ton, 3,760 yuan per ton, and 3,530 yuan per ton respectively [8]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have followed suit. The by - product nature of asphalt has caused the asphalt crack spread to decline during the sharp rise of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. As the asphalt - fuel oil spread has dropped sharply, the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly. Statistics show that the asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory has started to accumulate in 2026, with the year - on - year growth rate changing from negative in 2025 to positive. Currently, the refinery inventory is low while the social inventory is high, and the refinery operation rate is low while the inventory continues to accumulate, reflecting the reality of tight raw material supply and poor demand. After the increase in the spot price in South China, the export window is expected to close, and the weakening of exports will intensify the domestic oversupply pressure. Against the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure of asphalt inventory build - up is still high. After the sharp rise of fuel oil, the current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. The asphalt - fuel oil spread compresses when the geopolitical situation heats up and rebounds when the situation eases [8]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,888 yuan per ton [9]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices due to its high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes. The tense situation in Iran not only affects the export expectations of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - Eastern fuel oil but also the supply expectations of Middle - Eastern natural gas. The energy crisis effect has driven the sharp rise of fuel oil prices, and the sharp rise in freight rates has also contributed to the rebound of fuel oil. Currently, attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation. As long as the geopolitical disturbance continues, fuel oil prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for Middle - Eastern fuel oil for power generation is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which constitutes a medium - to - long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. After the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is expected to increase fuel oil exports. The continuous decline of the asphalt - fuel oil spread shows that the geopolitical escalation has a significant impact on fuel oil prices [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The long - term growth expectation of Venezuelan oil production exerts pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 4,376 yuan per ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in natural gas and crude oil prices, and low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the upward trend of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong main - product attribute. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, replacement by green energy, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low, and its main - product attribute causes the crack spread to strengthen during the rise of crude oil prices. In terms of fundamentals, the export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Considering that the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is lower than that of refined oil, its valuation is expected to be difficult to further compress [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the replacement of green fuels and the limited space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low, and it fluctuates with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PX in April was negotiated at 1,024 - 1,038 US dollars per ton, and in May at 1,024 - 1,045 US dollars per ton. A spot deal in April was made at 1,030.5 US dollars per ton. The main PX contract closed at 8,088 (+104) yuan per ton, with a basis of 94 (-26) yuan per ton. The MOPJ closed at 721 (+18) US dollars per ton, and the PXN was 282 (-2) US dollars per ton. The PTA2605 closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, with a processing margin of 499 (+61) yuan per ton. A 770,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea started its scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [11]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has brought significant fluctuations to the price of raw material PX. The cost and sentiment have resonated. Some domestic PX plants have reduced production preventively, and the supply - demand expectation of PX is improving, gradually falling from a high - operation state. The implementation of the maintenance of individual plants in South Korea has been confirmed. The restart of multiple PTA plants in the downstream will provide short - term support for PX demand. With the decrease in supply and increase in demand, the short - term fundamentals of PX are slightly strong [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PX price will fluctuate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The logic of going long on dips in the medium - term remains. The 05 - 09 spread of PX is expected to be in a positive spread position on dips, and the PXN is expected to be maintained in the range of [270, 330] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PTA was 5,605 (+80) yuan per ton, the spot processing margin was 245.6 (+35.5) yuan per ton, and the spot basis was - 46 (+7) yuan per ton. The main PTA contract closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, and the processing margin on the main contract was 396.4 (+17.9) yuan per ton. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased overall, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several polyester factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively. The sales rate of domestic polyester chip sample enterprises was 16.06%, a decrease of 55.24% compared with the previous period [12]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation is still the short - term focus of the market. The shipping in the Strait is blocked, forcing crude oil production cuts in the Middle East. International oil prices have driven the general rise of downstream chemical products. Under cost support, the center of PTA has moved up, but the overall increase is less than that of PX, resulting in a slight pressure on its processing margin. Overall, PTA will still fluctuate strongly following the upstream cost in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the situation of upstream refineries and its own plant changes [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a strong - fluctuating trend in the short - term. The 05 - 09 spread of TA is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short - term. The support at the lower price of TA has increased, and short - selling is not recommended in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On March 4, the closing price of the pure benzene 2604 contract was 6,761 yuan per ton, a change of +3.21%. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 280 yuan per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 878 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 US dollars per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US was 969.73 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 26.94 US dollars per ton. The price of Japanese CFR naphtha was 636.63 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars per ton; the spread between Chinese pure benzene and naphtha was 134 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11 US dollars per ton. The non - integrated profit of downstream styrene was 349 (+77) yuan per ton, the profit of caprolactam containing ammonium sulfate was 749.78 (+29.56) yuan per ton, the profit of phenol was - 50 (+327) yuan per ton, the profit of aniline was 1,687 (-87) yuan per ton, and the profit of adipic acid was - 153 (-76) yuan per ton [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the recent geopolitical situation has dominated the price trend of crude oil, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then pure benzene. In terms of supply and demand, the supply side is affected by oil price fluctuations, and refineries may have the expectation of defensive production cuts. On the demand side, on the one hand, the news of styrene maintenance and restart is intertwined, and the expectation of the main demand for pure benzene has changed. At present, the maintenance volume in March is greater than the restart volume. On the other hand, among the non - styrene downstream, except for caprolactam, which is still reducing production and has a low load, the other downstream products such as adipic acid, phenol, and aniline have performed well recently, with the operation rate and profit recovering simultaneously, which may reflect the recovery of terminal demand [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Although the inventory pressure is still high, the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared with Q4 [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Market News**: On March 4, according to Longzhong data, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8,210 (+30) yuan per ton, and the basis of the main contract was 128 (0) yuan per ton. The price of pure benzene in East China was 6,730 (+90) yuan per ton, the price of Sinopec ethylene was 6,500 (+400) yuan per ton, the non - integrated cash - flow production cost of styrene was 7,987 (+165) yuan per ton, and the cash - flow profit was 113 (-165) yuan per ton. The price of PS in East China was 8,400 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of PS was - 200 (+100) yuan per ton; the price of EPS was 9,150 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of EPS was 400 (400) yuan per ton; the price of ABS was 10,150 (+200) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of ABS was 291.88 (+117.41) yuan per ton. The main contract EB2604 opened at 8,190 yuan, reached a high of 8,358 yuan, a low of 7,972 yuan, and closed at 8,213 yuan, an increase of 132 yuan compared with the previous trading day [15]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then styrene. In terms of cost, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is stable, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, so it has no effective driving force for styrene. On the supply side, according to Zhuochuang, the Carville plant in the US has stopped for maintenance, and in March in China, several plants such as Gulei, Hengli, Yanchang Refining and Chemical, and Zibo Junchen have new maintenance plans, and Xuyang plans to restart in late March, so the supply of styrene is expected to decrease. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday ends, the operation rate of downstream industries has gradually recovered, and the overall demand is expected to improve. Recently, the profits of 3S have been repaired, and the downstream transactions have maintained a good rhythm. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of EPS load increase and the resumption of work and production of terminals. Overall, styrene will return to inventory reduction in March, and the near - term fundamentals are acceptable. Attention should be paid to crude oil, plant maintenance and restart progress, and the demand after the festival [15]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Driven by exports and with many plant maintenance plans, styrene may return to inventory reduction in March [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, ethylene glycol

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to oil production cuts by oil - producing countries, and aromatics have the potential for a catch - up rally [2]. - Crude oil is leading the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situation dominates oil prices, with a widening gap between domestic and foreign markets. In the short - term, the reduction of effective crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions drives up oil prices. The outlook is oscillating and bullish [3][8]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is being released. The absolute price of asphalt is in an over - valued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has risen significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a negative factor. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has risen sharply following crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [3][11]. - **Methanol**: Driven by the geopolitical situation, it is oscillating and bullish. The market is trading the geopolitical premium, and there is still upward potential in the short - term [3][24]. - **Urea**: Supported by demand and guided by policies, it is oscillating and consolidating. Supply is stable at a high level, while demand from the agricultural sector is strong and industrial demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillating [3][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The futures price hit the daily limit, with cost and supply - demand factors resonating. In the short - term, it may maintain a strong performance. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][19]. - **PX**: Some PX plants have reduced their loads preventively, with cost and supply - demand factors in resonance. In the short - term, the fundamentals are slightly bullish. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][13]. - **PTA**: Supported by the strong upstream cost, the center of gravity has shifted upward. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Significantly supported by cost, but the market shows a fear - of - high - prices mentality. It is expected to follow the upstream trend and maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][20]. - **Bottle Chips**: The sharp rise in crude oil and upstream raw materials has driven the recovery of downstream trading sentiment. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for processing margins has increased [3][22]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Significantly boosted by the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][31]. - **PP**: Boosted by crude oil, methanol, and propane at the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][30]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, it continues to strengthen. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations, it is oscillating and bullish [3][17]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, it is cautiously optimistic. The outlook is oscillating and bullish, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the market when the geopolitical conflict eases [3][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The outlook is oscillating [3][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring 2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. 2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data is provided in the given text, but the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. is mentioned. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on March 3, 2026, are presented, along with their corresponding changes [280][282].

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter with a daily export volume exceeding 7 million barrels, while Iran's daily oil exports are over 2 million barrels, approximately 30% of Saudi's exports [1][7] - The U.S. has deployed two aircraft carriers in the Middle East, with the Lincoln in the Persian Gulf to deter Iran and the Ford in Greece to strengthen Israel's defense capabilities [8] - The upcoming U.S.-Iran meeting in Geneva is unlikely to yield substantial results due to fundamental contradictions in the nuclear issue [8] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia has developed an emergency plan to increase short-term oil production and exports if U.S. military action against Iran disrupts oil transport in the Middle East [9] - Other oil-producing countries may follow Saudi Arabia's lead to increase production for excess profits, potentially reducing the upward pressure on oil prices even if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate [9] - OPEC+ is set to hold a video meeting to review April production policies, with indications that a series of small production increases may be restarted [9] Group 3 - WTI crude oil is currently within multiple upward channels, with a mid-term high of $62.36 and a low of $54.86, as it seeks a new mid-term high [12] - The recent increase in U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories to 43.5804 million barrels is a bearish signal for oil prices, with long-term inventory peaks around 50 million barrels indicating further upward potential for inventories [12] - The short-term oil price trend is still determined by the U.S.-Iran situation [13]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties between the US and Iran continue to influence oil prices, with a recent increase in oil price levels observed, particularly on February 10, where the SC2604 contract saw a rise of over 1% [3][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation is identified as a core factor affecting short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The US has issued new guidelines for ships flying the American flag to avoid Iranian territorial waters and to refuse boarding by Iranian military forces [4][7]. - The OPEC oil production in January decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, a reduction of 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria experiencing the largest decline. This decrease offsets production increases from some member countries, including Venezuela [4][7]. EU Sanctions - The European Union has proposed expanding sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports. The proposal includes listing the Kulevi port in Georgia and the Karimun port in Indonesia, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from trading with these ports [4][7]. Market Implications - The combination of fluctuating geopolitical factors and EU sanctions creates ongoing uncertainty in the supply chain, suggesting that oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in the short term [4][7].