格隆汇1月6日｜由于市场并不相信在领导人马杜罗下台后委内瑞拉的产量会迅速增加，原油期货价格走 高。Pepperstone的Michael Brown在报告中表示，该国的能源基础设施处于极度糟糕的状态，需要数百 亿美元的投资才能恢复运转。他指出："无论如何，委内瑞拉原油超重质酸性的特性意味着，在布伦特 原油价格处于每桶60美元的情况下，开采的经济效益并不划算。"他认为，任何潜在的增产"都是很久以 后的事"，并且"到目前为止，我们所看到的任何情况都没有实质性改变原油的前景"。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 能源组 相关期货品种：原油、沥青、燃油 2026年1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉发动空袭，并控制委现任总统马杜罗，南美局势进一步升级。 责任编辑：朱赫楠 事件本身对原油的直接影响有限，中期影响偏利空：1、委内瑞拉原油出口体量较小，大致在70~80万 桶/日，产量在100万桶/日，其中75%出口到茶壶炼厂，主要是马瑞重质原油，作为沥青生产原料，剩余 25%出口到美国和古巴等地，马杜罗事件后预计美国出口将会增加，茶壶出口将会明显下降，但茶壶基 于利润考虑不太可能采购合规油，可能更多转向燃料油或其他敏感油，对合规油的需求有限；2、影响 委内原油出口主要是美国封锁，目前约2400万桶的原油转化为浮仓，如果美国封锁随着马杜罗被捕而解 除，其出口将会恢复，但贸易流向面临重新定向，如果美国继续封锁，委内瑞拉未来可能面临上游减 产；3、茶壶炼厂利益受损，美湾炼厂获得更多重质原油从而受益，二次装置如焦化装置开工率有望提 升，从而提升柴油收率；4、由于马瑞原油品质较重，需要稀释剂如石脑油进行运输，美国重新掌控委 内局势后，俄罗斯与伊朗的石脑油将难 ...

此前，意大利埃尼集团、西班牙雷普索尔、法国道达尔能源已先行回归利比亚并加大勘探力度。苏莱曼 在11月ADIPEC会议上透露，利比亚国家石油公司正与雪佛龙推进合作事宜，这家美国石油巨头于2010 年退出利比亚市场。 近期，利比亚石油正重新回到国际巨头视野中。历经十余年国内动荡后，利比亚国家石油公司决心突破 困境，冲击更高产量目标。2025年，随着政治与安全局势好转、运营环境改善，这个北非国家的原油产 量创下过去12年来的新高，吸引各大石油巨头重返该国，以开发其约480亿桶的原油储量。不过，利比 亚局势能否持续稳定，观察人士仍存疑虑。 12月17日，标普全球能源旗下普氏能源资讯评估显示，利比亚"锡德尔轻质低硫原油"报价为59.90美元/ 桶，较北海布伦特原油贴水0.10美元/桶。而在2024年10月，该品种原油贴水曾高达2.20美元/桶，此后 价格持续走强。贴水削减标志着利比亚原油市场更加稳定。 自2011年卡扎菲政权倒台后，利比亚原油产量波动剧烈。2018年利比亚被分裂成西部和东部两个政府， 导致互相争夺对国家石油公司的控制权。普氏能源资讯的OPEC+调查数据显示，2011年内战期间，该 国产量从日均158万桶 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised for the seventh time this year, with an increase of 125 yuan per ton for gasoline and 120 yuan per ton for diesel, effective from November 10, 2025 [2] Price Impact - The price increase translates to an additional 0.10 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, meaning filling a 50L tank will cost an extra 5 yuan [5] - For a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [5] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase in fuel costs of about 177 yuan before the next price adjustment [5] Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 22 adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 620 yuan per ton for gasoline and 595 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The last price increase occurred on July 1, indicating a four-month gap before the current adjustment [6] Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been in a downward trend, influenced by concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ potentially increasing production and rising U.S. oil inventories [6][8] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued fluctuations in international oil prices [8] - OPEC+ has confirmed a slight increase in production for December but has paused plans for further increases in the first quarter of next year due to supply concerns [8]

Core Insights - OPEC+ is expected to discuss a plan for a slight increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day during a key member meeting this weekend [1] - The organization is gradually restoring previously suspended production of 1.66 million barrels per day to regain its market share in the global oil market [1] - Global oil prices remain volatile due to signs of oversupply, weak demand, and new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on major OPEC+ member Russia [1] Production Plans - The upcoming video meeting on November 2 will focus on the third monthly increase in production [1] - A media survey indicated that 9 out of 10 oil traders, refiners, and analysts expect OPEC+ to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, with one predicting a larger increase [1] Market Dynamics - The decision to restart production increases is driven by Saudi Arabia's desire to reclaim market share lost to U.S. shale oil competitors [2] - Political considerations are also influencing OPEC+'s decisions, particularly with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman scheduled to visit the White House on November 18 [2] - The U.S. government's sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, are anticipated to impact oil prices, as these companies account for nearly half of Russia's oil exports [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on September 29, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2%, Amazon up over 1%, and Broadcom down nearly 2% [1] - Storage concept stocks collectively rose, with Seagate Technology up 5.35%, Micron Technology up 4.22%, and Western Digital up 9.23% [1] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks generally increased, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.03% [2] - Notable gains included Bilibili, Alibaba, and New Oriental, each up over 4%, while Li Auto and JD.com rose over 3% [2] Middle East Developments - The Israeli shekel rose nearly 2% following President Trump's announcement of a "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, which was agreed upon by Israel [3] - The plan includes an immediate ceasefire, the return of hostages within 72 hours, and the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners by Israel [5] - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of achieving peace in Gaza, particularly regarding Hamas's role in future governance [5] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures experienced a significant drop of 4% intraday, marking the largest decline since June, closing at $63.45 per barrel [6] - The decline is attributed to easing Middle East tensions and indications that OPEC+ may decide to increase production in November [6] - RBC Capital Markets analysts predict that OPEC+ is likely to decide on an increase of 137,000 barrels per day at the upcoming meeting, although actual increases may be limited due to production capacity constraints among member countries [6][7] Future Oil Supply Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply of crude oil by 2026 as OPEC+ continues to restore production alongside non-OPEC competitors [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude oil prices may fall to the mid-$50 range next year [7]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day in the upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share as oil prices continue to rise [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, increasing production quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 2.4% of global demand [1] - The eight member countries of OPEC+ plan to fully cancel a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September and have initiated the process to cancel another cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting in October [3] - OPEC+ has approved the UAE to increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day from April to September [3] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices have fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel since OPEC began increasing production in April, with a recent spike to over $70 per barrel due to disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone attacks [2] - OPEC+ members collectively implemented a peak production cut of 5.85 million barrels per day, which included voluntary cuts and reductions from member countries [2] Group 3: Upcoming Meetings - An online meeting is scheduled for October 5, where OPEC+ will determine the production plan for November, with discussions indicating an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The final decision regarding the production increase has not yet been finalized, as many OPEC+ members are already operating at full capacity [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season, leading to a drop in international crude oil prices, with NYMEX WTI futures falling below $65 per barrel from a high of $74.25 per barrel on June 23 [1] - The current supply-demand situation indicates a potential for substantial crude oil accumulation, exacerbating market oversupply pressures due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, while demand shows signs of slowing down [1][8] - Geopolitical crises and the cost structures of oil-producing countries will influence future crude oil output, suggesting that the surplus may be lower than expected, with investment demand providing some support for oil prices in a stagflation environment [1] Group 2: Production Trends - Major oil-producing countries are actively increasing production, with OPEC+ accelerating the restoration of previously halted production capacities, potentially reversing 1.66 million barrels per day of cuts within a year if they maintain a monthly increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day [2] - In July, OPEC's crude oil production rose by 262,000 barrels per day compared to June, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributing significantly to this increase [2] - Non-OPEC countries are also expected to add substantial new production capacity, with projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Norway contributing a combined increase of over 100,000 barrels per day [3] Group 3: Uncertainties in Output - Despite OPEC+'s intentions to capture market share through increased production, actual output remains uncertain due to factors such as remaining idle capacity, geopolitical issues, and production costs [4] - OPEC+ currently has about 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia holding approximately 2.4 million barrels per day, but the execution of production increases has varied among member countries [4] - From April to August, OPEC+ members collectively increased production by about 1.16 million barrels per day, with an execution rate of approximately 61%, indicating discrepancies in adherence to production plans [4] Group 4: Demand Weakness - Global crude oil demand is expected to weaken significantly by 2025, with a slowdown in growth rates observed in the second quarter, leading to a continuous increase in global oil inventories [7] - As of June, global oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching a record high of 7.836 billion barrels, with U.S. liquid hydrocarbons inventory showing a notable increase [7] - The risk of weakened U.S. oil demand is heightened, particularly as economic indicators suggest a potential stagflation scenario, with a notable decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that COSCO Shipping Energy's stock price increased by nearly 10% following OPEC+'s announcement to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, indicating a potential easing of the second layer of production cuts earlier than planned [1] - The increase in oil production is expected to boost demand for oil transportation, as noted by Guotai Junan Securities, which reaffirms that the demand for oil shipping will continue to grow [1] - The article mentions that while OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the benefits may not be immediately realized due to factors such as Middle Eastern production being redirected for domestic consumption and reduced shipping distances due to shifts in U.S. Gulf exports to Europe [1] Group 2 - The expectation is that the benefits of increased production will gradually manifest in the second half of the year, particularly aiding the performance in Q4, as the industry remains optimistic about the outlook [1] - The article also points out that the end of the Middle Eastern domestic demand season and increased exports from South America could further support the anticipated growth in oil shipping demand [1]