1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

美股三大指数09月29日收盘全线上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨0.15%；标准普尔500种股票指数上涨0.26%；纳斯达克综合指数 上涨0.48%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，亚马逊涨超1%，博通跌近2%。特斯拉涨0.64%，微软涨0.61%，Meta跌0.05%，苹果跌0.40%，AMD涨1.19%。美股 存储概念股集体上涨，希捷科技涨5.35%，美光科技涨4.22%，西部数据涨9.23%。 热门中概股普遍上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.03%，哔哩哔哩、阿里巴巴、新东方涨超4%，理想汽车、京东涨超3%，百度、蔚来涨超2%。 01 特朗普称以色列同意结束加沙冲突"20点计划" 谢克尔盘中涨近2% 美东时间29日周一，与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在白宫会谈后，美国总统特朗普宣布，以方已同意美国提出的结束加沙冲突"20点计划"。消息公布后，以色 列谢克尔汇率刷新日高，美元兑谢克尔一度跌破3.2890，日内跌逾1.9%。 据央视新闻，上述计划要求冲突立即结束，72小时内归还所有人质，以色列释放近2000名巴勒斯坦囚犯，并承诺不占领或吞并加沙。 特朗普表示，该计划已获得中东和穆斯林国家领导 ...

拟讨论进一步增产计划 上述 8 个成员国计划在 9 月底前，完全取消此前减产措施中的其中一项 —— 即 220 万桶 / 日的自愿减产。10 月起，它们已启动第二项减产措施的取消进程 （涉及 165 万桶 / 日），当月先上调产量 13.7 万桶 / 日。 此外，欧佩克 + 已批准阿联酋在 4 月至 9 月期间将产量上调 30 万桶 / 日。 目前，欧佩克总部及沙特阿拉伯相关部门尚未对置评请求作出即时回应。 原油价格近期走势如何？ 今年年初，原油价格曾突破每桶 80 美元，但自 4 月欧佩克启动增产以来，油价大多在每桶 60-70 美元的窄幅区间波动。 周五（9 月 27 日），受乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯能源基础设施的影响，全球主要原油出口国之一俄罗斯的炼化产能与出口运输受阻，原油价格攀升至 8 月 1 日以来的最高点，突破每桶 70 美元。 欧佩克 + 的减产规模在峰值时曾达 585 万桶 / 日，该数字由三部分构成：220 万桶 / 日的自愿减产、8 个成员国合计 165 万桶 / 日的减产，以及全体成员共同 实施的 200 万桶 / 日减产。 三位知情人士透露，欧佩克+很可能在下周周日的会议上批准新一轮原 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season, leading to a drop in international crude oil prices, with NYMEX WTI futures falling below $65 per barrel from a high of $74.25 per barrel on June 23 [1] - The current supply-demand situation indicates a potential for substantial crude oil accumulation, exacerbating market oversupply pressures due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, while demand shows signs of slowing down [1][8] - Geopolitical crises and the cost structures of oil-producing countries will influence future crude oil output, suggesting that the surplus may be lower than expected, with investment demand providing some support for oil prices in a stagflation environment [1] Group 2: Production Trends - Major oil-producing countries are actively increasing production, with OPEC+ accelerating the restoration of previously halted production capacities, potentially reversing 1.66 million barrels per day of cuts within a year if they maintain a monthly increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day [2] - In July, OPEC's crude oil production rose by 262,000 barrels per day compared to June, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributing significantly to this increase [2] - Non-OPEC countries are also expected to add substantial new production capacity, with projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Norway contributing a combined increase of over 100,000 barrels per day [3] Group 3: Uncertainties in Output - Despite OPEC+'s intentions to capture market share through increased production, actual output remains uncertain due to factors such as remaining idle capacity, geopolitical issues, and production costs [4] - OPEC+ currently has about 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia holding approximately 2.4 million barrels per day, but the execution of production increases has varied among member countries [4] - From April to August, OPEC+ members collectively increased production by about 1.16 million barrels per day, with an execution rate of approximately 61%, indicating discrepancies in adherence to production plans [4] Group 4: Demand Weakness - Global crude oil demand is expected to weaken significantly by 2025, with a slowdown in growth rates observed in the second quarter, leading to a continuous increase in global oil inventories [7] - As of June, global oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching a record high of 7.836 billion barrels, with U.S. liquid hydrocarbons inventory showing a notable increase [7] - The risk of weakened U.S. oil demand is heightened, particularly as economic indicators suggest a potential stagflation scenario, with a notable decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that COSCO Shipping Energy's stock price increased by nearly 10% following OPEC+'s announcement to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, indicating a potential easing of the second layer of production cuts earlier than planned [1] - The increase in oil production is expected to boost demand for oil transportation, as noted by Guotai Junan Securities, which reaffirms that the demand for oil shipping will continue to grow [1] - The article mentions that while OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the benefits may not be immediately realized due to factors such as Middle Eastern production being redirected for domestic consumption and reduced shipping distances due to shifts in U.S. Gulf exports to Europe [1] Group 2 - The expectation is that the benefits of increased production will gradually manifest in the second half of the year, particularly aiding the performance in Q4, as the industry remains optimistic about the outlook [1] - The article also points out that the end of the Middle Eastern domestic demand season and increased exports from South America could further support the anticipated growth in oil shipping demand [1]

徽商期货分析师认为，短期油价支撑较强，主要受益于宏观环境稳定和原油去库进程，但中期风险上 升，包括需求淡季来临、OPEC+原定166万桶/日增产计划及地缘不确定性等。策略上，建议多单逢高止 盈，规避9月7日OPEC+月度会议结果的不确定性，同时密切关注飓风动态及下周库存数据变化以优化 交易布局。 中辉期货表示，欧佩克+再度向市场释放增产消息，原油系昨晚走低。当前原油消费旺季已结束，而 OPEC+仍处于扩产周期，如果地缘因素短期没有明显异动的情况下，预计原油大概率将承压震荡为 主，关注后续欧佩克+相关会议动态。 南华期货（603093）指出，OPEC+是否继续增产的不确定性较高，这将成为下周原油价格波动的重要 隐患：若决定继续增产，可能对原油盘面形成进一步压制；若暂停增产，盘面或迎来反弹修复，但反弹 力度预计有限。地缘风险方面，目前其对原油的利好影响时间短、空间有限，更多属于短期干扰因素， 仍需持续关注。其中，美委紧张局势是否会升级为直接军事冲突是核心关注点，一旦发生，原油盘面大 概率将遵循"1-2周，5-10美元"的波动规律，与此前伊以冲突的影响模式类似。此外，当前宏观面与基 本面暂未进入市场主要交易逻辑，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View - Crude oil production increase drives a price callback, with a short - term recommendation to wait and see [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $69.14/bbl, up $0.99, with a $3.55 premium to WTI; pre - OPEC+ meeting short - covering and peak North Sea oilfield maintenance [2] - WTI (NYMEX) at $65.59/bbl, up $1.58, with Midland at a $1.10 discount; US strategic reserve repurchase starts and Cushing inventory drops 2.8 million barrels weekly [2] - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium to Oman; strong Middle - East refinery feed demand and a record high spot premium for November shipments [2] - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with an official selling price cut of $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude [2] - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, at a $11.23 discount to Brent; Indian refineries buy at low prices and Baltic shipments increase 15% month - on - month [2] 3.2 Product Oil Market Price and Dynamics - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore) has a crack spread of $22/bbl, FOB price of $83.27, and VLCC freight from Persian Gulf to Japan at w64.5 (+15%) [3] - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel has a crack spread of $6.93/bbl, FOB price of $492.08, and LR2 freight from Singapore to East China at $2.35m (+12%) [3] - 10ppm diesel has a crack spread of $19/bbl, FOB price of $88.12, and Suezmax freight from Middle - East to West Africa at w107.5 [3] - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has a crack spread of - $2.25/bbl, FOB price of $426, and Aframax freight from Singapore to Australia at $1.9m [3] 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - Brent - WTI spread is $3.55/bbl due to Cushing inventory decline, compared to an August average of $2.8; US Gulf export facility congestion and closed European arbitrage window [4] - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl due to Middle - East OSP cuts, compared to an August average of $0.35; Saudi cuts Asian long - term contracts and intense spot market competition [4] - ESPO - Dubai spread is - $1.41/bbl due to increased Russian exports, compared to an August average of - $0.9; Russian oil companies' new strategy to avoid price limits [4] - Midland - Cushing spread is $1.1/bbl due to pipeline capacity constraints, compared to an August average of $0.85; EPIC pipeline failure leads to over 5 million barrels of backlog in the Permian Basin [4] 3.4 Key Spreads - The closure of Sudan's Heglig oilfield affects Nile Blend crude, with a $2.1/bbl price fluctuation expected to last 2 weeks and a daily production cut of 150,000 barrels [4] - Houthi attacks on tankers affect Middle - East medium - grade crude, with a $1.35/bbl immediate price impact and a 300% increase in Red Sea shipping insurance premiums [4] - INE Shanghai warehouse sanctions affect SC crude oil futures, with a - $3.2/bbl price impact, a 40% drop in open interest, and challenges to the delivery mechanism [4] - US EPIC pipeline expansion is expected to affect WTI Midland, with a - $0.75/bbl impact and a 300,000 - barrel - per - day increase in Permian - to - Gulf of Mexico capacity [4] 3.5突发事件或潜在影响因素 - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 - b/d maintenance from August 27 to early October affects Sakai crude, leading to Japan's gasoline inventory dropping to a 5 - year low and emergency reserve release [5] - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 - b/d maintenance postponed to end - September affects ESPO crude, with Zhoushan commercial crude inventory hitting a record high [5] - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 - b/d maintenance from September 15 to November 10 affects North Sea Forties, widening the European diesel crack spread by $1.2/bbl [5] - Reliance's 660,000 - b/d planned October maintenance affects Middle - East heavy crude, with India's early stockpiling narrowing the Middle - East fuel oil discount [6] 3.6 Other Market News - Citi slightly lowers its 2026 Brent crude average price forecast to $62/bbl (previously $65/bbl) [6] - US API crude inventory data for the week ending August 29: actual 622,000 barrels (expected - 3.4 million, previous - 974,000); Cushing crude inventory actual 2.063 million barrels (previous - 497,000) [8] - White House officials clarify Trump's phone - call reference [8] - Russia will supply oil to Brunei via the Northeast Arctic Passage for the first time [8] - Russia's September western port oil exports are expected to drop 6% to about 1.9 million barrels per day [8] - Trump administration hopes Europe stops buying Russian oil and joins sanctions [8] - OPEC+ will consider further production increases at a Sunday meeting to regain market share, or may pause production increases [8]

原油震荡偏弱运行 摘 要： OPEC+成员国已原则上同意 9 月将原油日产量提高 54.8 万桶/日。OPEC 认为当前全球经济展望稳定、市场基本面 健康，并未确认本轮增产的结束，四季度仍有继续增产可 能。上周特朗普对俄罗斯进行警告，加之俄乌互相袭击行 动持续，俄乌问题仍有待观察。原油震荡偏弱对待。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油震荡偏弱。SC2510 周度开 494，最高 500，最低 478，收盘 485，周度跌 8.4 或 1.70%。 油价震荡偏弱。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+增产立场不变 OPEC 月报：7 月份欧佩克+整体原油产量平均为 4194 万桶/日，较 6 月份增加 33.5 万桶/日。 二手资料显示， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations with a focus on the progress of US-Russia negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - Demand forecasts have been adjusted, with IEA lowering its predictions due to weak consumption in emerging markets, while EIA has raised its forecasts for certain countries, indicating a mixed outlook for demand [3] - US crude oil inventories have increased, indicating a shift from drawdown to accumulation [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore 2.2 million barrels per day of reduced capacity [2] - IEA and EIA have raised their annual supply increase forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day and 2.28 million barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [2] Demand Summary - IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, while EIA has raised its demand forecast for countries like China and the US, indicating a divergence in outlooks [3] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced by IEA, marking the lowest increase since 2009, while EIA's forecast has been adjusted upward but still reflects a decline from earlier predictions [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells in the US is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The operational cost range for US oil companies to cover existing well expenses is between $26 and $45 per barrel, indicating potential vulnerabilities if prices fall significantly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil production increases, suppressing the cost side, leading to LPG prices running at a low level. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the international oil and gas supply is expected to be loose, suppressing the raw material cost price. Although the recent resumption of PDH has increased and the deep - processing of C4 has maintained stable operation, the terminal demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are loose. The basis is at a high level, and the valuation of the main contract is suppressed by the warrants, with the reverse spread reaching the bottom [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 3,820 - 4,000 yuan/ton. The sharp drop in August CP led to a significant decline in import costs, which was negative for the futures and spot markets. International crude oil prices fell, causing a decline in the energy - chemical sector. The main LPG contract reached a low for the year. As the decline in spot prices was less than that of futures, the basis strengthened. The weekly average basis was 518.6 yuan/ton in East China, 515.2 yuan/ton in South China, and 651.2 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable location was South China [6] 3.2 Factors Affecting LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased slightly. The commercial volume of domestic LPG decreased, with the volume of domestic - use gas at 210,000 tons (3.62%), industrial gas at 202,200 tons (- 0.39%), and ether - after C4 at 74,000 tons (- 0.56%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A company in the Northwest resumed operation, a company in Shandong carried out maintenance, and a refinery in Central China increased internal supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - The combustion demand remained weak, and downstream procurement demand was low. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the poor performance of the oil product market increased the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises, weakening the demand for ether - after C4. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH increased the operating rate, but the off - season demand for intermediate - link propylene and terminal PP was average, and the fundamentals were loose, with other downstream profits in varying degrees of loss [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 175,800 tons (- 2.77%), and the port inventory was 321,620 tons (61%). This week, the inventory in various domestic regions remained generally stable with minor adjustments. The inventory in South China and Northeast China increased slightly due to import impacts and low demand, while the inventory in East China and Central China decreased through resource shipping and low - price sales. Although the number of arriving ships at the port decreased slightly this period, the unloading volume increased compared with last week, and the import resources were sufficient [4] 3.2.4 Basis and Positions - The weekly average basis was 555.4 yuan/ton in East China, 547.6 yuan/ton in South China, and 40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warrants was 10,179 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was East China [4] 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.84%, 53%, and 50% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 201 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 390 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 2.59%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was - 478 yuan/ton. The basis level was high, and the main futures contract was expected to reach the bottom [4] 3.2.7 Other Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and international oil and gas prices are fluctuating downward. Trump signed an executive order on August 6, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, raising the overall tariff level to 50%. The 90 - day tariff relaxation period is approaching, and China - US tariff renegotiations are imminent [4] 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - The investment view is bearish. The trading strategy suggests temporarily waiting and watching for unilateral trading, paying attention to the positive spread of far - month contracts for arbitrage, and shorting PDH profits by going long on PG and shorting PL. Attention should be paid to China - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and changes in downstream demand [4] 3.4 Device Maintenance Plans - The report provides the maintenance plans of major refineries, LPG production devices, and PDH devices in China in 2025, including information such as refinery names, locations, maintenance devices, processing capacities, start and end times, etc. [12][13][14] 3.5 Market Data Charts - The report includes a large number of market data charts, covering the closing price monitoring of energy - chemical products, LPG futures prices, inter - month and cross - month spreads, domestic and international LPG - related price trends, inventory, production, consumption, and other data [3][10][18]