Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations with a focus on the progress of US-Russia negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and a significant increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the highest monthly increase since the Saudi price war in 2020 [2] - Demand forecasts have been adjusted, with IEA lowering its predictions due to weak consumption in emerging markets, while EIA has raised its forecasts for certain countries, indicating a mixed outlook for demand [3] - US crude oil inventories have increased, indicating a shift from drawdown to accumulation [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, aiming to fully restore 2.2 million barrels per day of reduced capacity [2] - IEA and EIA have raised their annual supply increase forecasts to 2.5 million barrels per day and 2.28 million barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a significant upward revision [2] Demand Summary - IEA has downgraded its demand forecast for emerging markets, while EIA has raised its demand forecast for countries like China and the US, indicating a divergence in outlooks [3] - The demand growth forecast for 2025 has been reduced by IEA, marking the lowest increase since 2009, while EIA's forecast has been adjusted upward but still reflects a decline from earlier predictions [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells in the US is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price around $61 per barrel [4] - The operational cost range for US oil companies to cover existing well expenses is between $26 and $45 per barrel, indicating potential vulnerabilities if prices fall significantly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil production increases, suppressing the cost side, leading to LPG prices running at a low level. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the international oil and gas supply is expected to be loose, suppressing the raw material cost price. Although the recent resumption of PDH has increased and the deep - processing of C4 has maintained stable operation, the terminal demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are loose. The basis is at a high level, and the valuation of the main contract is suppressed by the warrants, with the reverse spread reaching the bottom [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 3,820 - 4,000 yuan/ton. The sharp drop in August CP led to a significant decline in import costs, which was negative for the futures and spot markets. International crude oil prices fell, causing a decline in the energy - chemical sector. The main LPG contract reached a low for the year. As the decline in spot prices was less than that of futures, the basis strengthened. The weekly average basis was 518.6 yuan/ton in East China, 515.2 yuan/ton in South China, and 651.2 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable location was South China [6] 3.2 Factors Affecting LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased slightly. The commercial volume of domestic LPG decreased, with the volume of domestic - use gas at 210,000 tons (3.62%), industrial gas at 202,200 tons (- 0.39%), and ether - after C4 at 74,000 tons (- 0.56%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A company in the Northwest resumed operation, a company in Shandong carried out maintenance, and a refinery in Central China increased internal supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - The combustion demand remained weak, and downstream procurement demand was low. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the poor performance of the oil product market increased the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises, weakening the demand for ether - after C4. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH increased the operating rate, but the off - season demand for intermediate - link propylene and terminal PP was average, and the fundamentals were loose, with other downstream profits in varying degrees of loss [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 175,800 tons (- 2.77%), and the port inventory was 321,620 tons (61%). This week, the inventory in various domestic regions remained generally stable with minor adjustments. The inventory in South China and Northeast China increased slightly due to import impacts and low demand, while the inventory in East China and Central China decreased through resource shipping and low - price sales. Although the number of arriving ships at the port decreased slightly this period, the unloading volume increased compared with last week, and the import resources were sufficient [4] 3.2.4 Basis and Positions - The weekly average basis was 555.4 yuan/ton in East China, 547.6 yuan/ton in South China, and 40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warrants was 10,179 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was East China [4] 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.84%, 53%, and 50% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 201 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 390 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 2.59%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was - 478 yuan/ton. The basis level was high, and the main futures contract was expected to reach the bottom [4] 3.2.7 Other Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and international oil and gas prices are fluctuating downward. Trump signed an executive order on August 6, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, raising the overall tariff level to 50%. The 90 - day tariff relaxation period is approaching, and China - US tariff renegotiations are imminent [4] 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - The investment view is bearish. The trading strategy suggests temporarily waiting and watching for unilateral trading, paying attention to the positive spread of far - month contracts for arbitrage, and shorting PDH profits by going long on PG and shorting PL. Attention should be paid to China - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and changes in downstream demand [4] 3.4 Device Maintenance Plans - The report provides the maintenance plans of major refineries, LPG production devices, and PDH devices in China in 2025, including information such as refinery names, locations, maintenance devices, processing capacities, start and end times, etc. [12][13][14] 3.5 Market Data Charts - The report includes a large number of market data charts, covering the closing price monitoring of energy - chemical products, LPG futures prices, inter - month and cross - month spreads, domestic and international LPG - related price trends, inventory, production, consumption, and other data [3][10][18]

中化新网讯 近日，由石油输出国组织(OPEC)与非OPEC产油国联盟(OPEC+)的8个成员国举行了线上会 议，同意在9月份增产54.7万桶/日。由于担心与俄罗斯相关的潜在供应中断，这些国家将继续增产以恢 复其市场份额。此举标志着这8个国家原定的220万桶/日的自愿减产协议提前结束。 下次会议定于9月7日举行。消息人士称，届时可能会讨论如何处理约165万桶的自愿减产安排，目前的 计划是将这一减产水平维持到明年年底。业内人士称，OPEC+下个月继续增产的决定，也有可能导致 原油价格下跌。 在会后发表的声明中，与会国表示，健康的经济状况和较低的库存水平是作出这一决定的原因。这8个 国家自4月起增产13.8万桶/日，5至7月间增产41.1万桶/日，实际超额完成计划。8月份计划增产54.8万 桶/日。尽管产量增加，但由于季节性需求增长，原油价格依然高企。北海布伦特原油期货8月1日的收 盘价接近每桶70美元，高于在4月份创下的约58美元/桶的年内低点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of volatility, and an intraday view of weak volatility [1][5] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - frame Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is weakly volatile, and the reference view is a weak run [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Supply side: Eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ started to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the production increase has not reached the target. OPEC's June production increased by 349,000 barrels per day, and the 8 countries in the agreement's production - increase period increased production by 394,000 barrels per day [5] - Macro - environment: Macro sentiment has weakened due to Trump's proposed tariff collection in the US, and supply pressure is prominent. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Market Performance and Forecast - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 1.23% lower at 498.0 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [5]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【8月原油市场：供应压力大但短期油价易涨难跌】8月，原油宏观面不确定性增加。地缘政治局势缓 和，然而关税谈判变数大。基本面来看，OPEC+已完成退出减产计划，8月大概率加速增产，供应端增 产节奏不变，供应压力较大。 不过，短期原油处于消费旺季，需求支撑增强，下行阻力较大。当前价 格下，OPEC+缺乏实际增产动力，6月实际增产低于预期，后续增产执行力度待察。 综合来看，短期原 油消费旺季背景下，油价易涨难跌，但供应压力限制了上方空间。 策略上，短期预计主力2509合约价 格区间在，操作建议为多单持续持有，上方第一阻力在520附近。 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are currently experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production decisions, and seasonal demand factors [1][9][10] - Oil prices have shown a significant rebound from $64 to over $78 in a short period, but have since stabilized in a narrow range of $64-$69 for nearly a month [1][3] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August, which exceeds market expectations and marks a new phase in global oil supply dynamics [7][8] Group 2 - Seasonal demand is providing short-term support for oil prices, particularly due to tight diesel supply and increased agricultural and travel-related consumption during summer [3][10] - The EU has approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on oil product imports, but the market response has been muted, suggesting skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures [5][6] - There are discrepancies in reported production increases from OPEC+, with significant differences in estimates from various sources, indicating potential challenges in accurately assessing supply impacts [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].