Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, complicating monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure in response to the deteriorating employment data, which is perceived to pose a greater risk than the moderate rebound in inflation [3] - Market expectations for another rate cut in October are high, with a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [3] Group 2: Employment Market - The U.S. job market is showing signs of significant weakening, with the average number of new non-farm jobs added in August at around 30,000, a historical low [2] - The unemployment rate has risen, and job vacancies have decreased, indicating a further decline in the employment market [2] - The dual slowdown in labor supply and demand is increasing the risks associated with employment [3] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The main challenges for the U.S. economy include structural imbalances in the job market and weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may not be effectively addressed through interest rate policies alone [4] - The Fed's risk management strategy aims to buy time for fiscal policies and structural reforms, but reliance solely on gradual monetary policy may not prevent further economic decline [4]

Core Points - The U.S. economy is facing "dual risks" of a weak job market and rising inflation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] - Powell emphasized that the current economic situation is "challenging," with short-term inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks skewed downward [1] - The Federal Reserve's goal remains to achieve full employment and stable prices, but aggressive rate cuts could hinder the ability to bring inflation down to 2% [1] - The Fed decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that concerns about the job market currently outweigh concerns about inflation, leading to the recent decision to cut rates [1] - The Fed's policy stance is described as "moderately restrictive" to address potential future scenarios [1] Group 2 - In contrast to Powell's cautious approach, some Fed officials advocate for more aggressive rate cuts [2] - Fed Governor Stephen Moore suggested that rates should be quickly reduced to between 2% and 2.5% to avoid unnecessary layoffs and rising unemployment [2]

英国央行行长贝利：货币政策委员会对双向风险保持警惕。 ...