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警惕通胀反弹风险,美联储巴尔呼吁对降息保持高度谨慎
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 10:06
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr expressed concerns that further interest rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, indicating that the decision for a potential cut in October will be a "difficult choice" [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Barr highlighted the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, stating that the fear of increasing inflation is a significant reason for this caution [1] - He noted that if there were no concerns about the labor market, there would have been no need for a rate cut last month, indirectly confirming that the September rate cut decision was primarily based on a careful assessment of the employment market [1] - **Decision-Making Process** - The Federal Reserve must decide in October whether to adjust interest rates again, with Barr emphasizing that "taking very cautious actions is appropriate" [1] - He reiterated that the core mission of the Federal Reserve is to "balance various objectives," including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1]
警惕通胀反弹风险 美联储巴尔呼吁对降息保持高度谨慎
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 00:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Michael Barr is the concern that further interest rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks, making the decision for potential cuts in October a "difficult choice" [1] - Barr indicated that the decision to cut rates in September was primarily based on a cautious assessment of the labor market, suggesting that if there were no concerns about the labor market, a cut would not have been necessary [1] - He emphasized the importance of balancing various objectives, including price stability and full employment, which reflects the independence of the central bank [1] Group 2 - In terms of macroeconomic fundamentals, Barr stated that the overall household balance sheet situation is relatively good and that there is no evidence of an economic boom driven by credit [2] - He noted that the wealth effect may be contributing to consumer spending growth [2] - Regarding balance sheet operations, Barr mentioned that the progress in balance sheet normalization has been quite smooth and highlighted the importance of having effective policy rate "ceiling tools" [2]
美联储会议纪要披露:货币政策转向风险平衡 劳动力市场降温成降息主因
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 03:11
新华财经北京10月9日电(崔凯)当地时间10月8日,美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)2025年 9月16日至17日会议纪要。会议纪要显示,将基准利率下调25个基点的决策获得委员会绝大多数成员支 持。唯一反对票来自新任理事米兰,其主张更大幅度降息50个基点,理由是"劳动力市场进一步趋软, 且核心通胀已显著接近2%目标"。 与会者普遍认为,当前经济前景不确定性较高,就业下行风险已超过通胀上行压力,且生产率提升正在 缓解成本推动型涨价的压力。在此背景下,小幅降息旨在"支持充分就业目标,并反映风险平衡的微妙 变化"。几乎全体委员支持降息25个基点,认为此举有助于平衡就业与通胀目标。不过,一名委员主张 更大幅度降息50个基点,认为当前紧缩程度过高可能抑制经济增长。反对意见则担忧过早放松政策可能 导致通胀预期脱锚。 委员会强调,货币政策无预设路径,未来调整将基于 incoming 数据、经济前景及风险演变。所有委员 重申对实现2%长期通胀目标和充分就业的坚定承诺。 会议间隔期内,金融市场对政策路径预期显著下移。公开市场操作室(Desk)调查显示,几乎所有受 访者预计本次会议将降息25个基点;近半数预计10月将再次 ...
美联储主席潜在接班人之一警告:AI带来经济强劲、失业率攀升的新风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 11:31
当地时间9月27日,特朗普在其社交平台发布一幅漫画,画中他对美联储主席鲍威尔喊道"你被解雇了!"此举被认为反映了他对鲍威尔谨慎降息立场的长期 不满,并进一步加剧了白宫与美国央行之间的紧张关系。目前,白宫尚未就此事作出回应。 美联储主席鲍威尔的潜在接班人之一大卫·泽尔沃斯本周警告称,美联储正忽视人工智能热潮对就业市场可能带来的冲击。他在接受采访时表 示:"我们或许会迎来一个经济强劲增长的时期,AI 的故事真的非常惊人,但就业增长这一块远没有人们想象的那么乐观。想象一下,经济增长 率能保持在3.5%至4%,整体表现非常亮眼,但失业率却在持续攀升。这正是美联储的两难困境。" ▲特朗普在其社交平台"真相社交"上发布的漫画。资料图 泽尔沃斯认为,美联储当下应把关注点更多放在劳动力市场,而不是通胀。他指出,一些人工智能领域的领先人物在会议上已警告,美国未来三到四年可能 会流失三百万到五百万个就业岗位,甚至可能更快。 有评论指出,美联储正面临在"稳定物价"和"充分就业"之间寻求平衡的长期压力,而如何在特朗普政府的政治施压下保持独立,也将是未来的重要考验。 使局势更复杂的是,今年8月,特朗普曾以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由试图解雇美 ...
鲍威尔:美国经济面临就业市场疲弱和通胀上升“双向风险”
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-23 23:37
鲍威尔:美国经济面临就业市场疲弱和通胀上升"双向风险" 中新社华盛顿9月23日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔当地时间23日表示,美国当前经 济形势"充满挑战",面临就业市场疲弱和通胀上升的"双向风险"。 鲍威尔当天在罗得岛州出席普罗维登斯商会活动时指出,短期通胀风险偏上行,就业风险偏下行,"应 对双向风险意味着没有无风险道路"。 鲍威尔表示,美联储的目标是实现充分就业和稳定物价。如果降息"过于激进",则无法完成将通胀率降 至2%的目标,之后可能还需要加息;如果维持联邦利率过高、时间过长,就业市场可能进一步疲软。 编辑:万可义 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 美国联邦储备委员会本月17日宣布,将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间的水平。 这是美联储今年以来的首次降息。 相较于鲍威尔的"谨慎"态度,美联储个别理事则主张"激进降息"。美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯 蒂芬· ...
美联储时隔 9 个月再度开启降息,矿业ETF(561330)连续10日迎净流入,机构:金属或受提振
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 05:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the mining sector is experiencing a continuous inflow of funds, with the mining ETF (561330) seeing net inflows for 10 consecutive days, suggesting a strong interest in the mining sector [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks its first rate cut since December 2024, reflecting a shift in focus towards employment amid signs of economic slowdown and rising inflation [1][2] - The FOMC statement acknowledges concerns regarding the labor market, noting a slight increase in unemployment while maintaining a low overall rate, and indicates an increased risk of employment downturn [2] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the extraction, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry in China [2] - The index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, with industry allocation primarily concentrated in basic and precious metals sectors [2] - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider related ETFs, such as the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [2]
美联储降息冲击,国际金价拉升突破3700美元后回落,获利盘出逃
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-09-18 06:03
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which led to a temporary spike in gold prices above $3700 per ounce before a subsequent decline [1][3][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The rate cut was primarily triggered by deteriorating employment data, which indicated a need for "preventive rate cuts" to address potential worsening job conditions [3][6] - The Fed raised its growth and inflation forecasts, suggesting a "near-dove, far-hawk" stance, which negatively impacted gold prices as it indicated less aggressive monetary easing in the future [6][7] Group 2: Gold Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to $3707.47 per ounce but later fell approximately 1.4% from that peak due to profit-taking and the Fed's less dovish signals [1][3][4] - The strong upward movement in gold prices was driven by increasing expectations of U.S. monetary easing, particularly after disappointing employment data [3][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment was influenced by the anticipation of a 50 basis point cut, but the Fed's decision for a 25 basis point cut led to profit-taking in gold [6][7] - The potential weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to higher inflation risks and a decline in the dollar's credibility, which may support gold prices in the long term [7]
美联储宣布:降息25基点!点阵图暗示年内或再降两次!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-18 00:23
大家好!9月18日凌晨两点,美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%,符合市场预期,重启自去 年12月以来暂停的降息步伐。 美国联邦储备委员会批准了市场普遍预期的降息,并释放信号称,鉴于对美国劳动力市场的担忧加剧, 年内还将再降两次。 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以11票赞成、1票反对通过,将基准隔夜拆借利率下调25个基点至4%— 4.25%的区间,反对意见少于华尔街此前预期。 新任理事斯蒂芬·I·米兰(Stephen I. Miran)是唯一的反对者,他主张本次应降息50个基点。 曾被认为可能"另起异议"的两位理事米歇尔·W·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·J·沃勒均投票支持下调25个基点。上 述几位均由特朗普提名。特朗普一直敦促美联储不仅要采取传统的25个基点步幅,还应更快、更激进地 下调联邦基金利率。 【导读】美联储降息25基点 此次会议之前伴随着不同寻常的政治戏剧性,这对一向低调运作、少有异议声音的美联储而言并不常 见。 一年前,在同样担心失业率温和上升可能预示更广泛疲弱的背景下,FOMC曾批准一次性降息50个基 点。特朗普表示,那次降息带有政治动机,是为了在总统选举中帮助其民主党对手卡玛拉·哈里斯 ...
凌晨重磅!美联储降息25个基点,鲍威尔“放鸽”
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-17 23:44
美联储如期降息! 当地时间9月17日,美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)货币政策会议纪要显示,美联储决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点,至4.00%~4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 尽管美国通胀率有所上升,并维持在略高的水平,但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联储终于采取降息措施。近 期指标显示,美国上半年经济活动增长放缓,就业增长放缓,经济前景的不确定性依然存在,就业下行风险上升。 会议纪要显示,委员会将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。美联储将维持当前资产负债表缩 减速度。 刚被任命的美联储理事、目前仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的斯蒂芬·米兰是唯一持不同意见的,他支持降息50个 基点。 随政策会议纪要一同发布的点阵图也显示,美联储官员预计到年底将再降息50个基点,未来两年每年再降息25个基 点。不出意外,点阵图上也出现了刺眼的"白宫降息呼声"。 毫无疑问,点阵图上最突兀的那个点有极大概率来自米兰。按照他的预期,9月降息后,美联储应该在年内再额外 进行至少100个基点的降息。 点阵图同时显示,9月降息后,除米兰外的18位官员中,有1人认为年底前应该 ...
美联储:降息25个基点,年内预计再降两次(附发布会速览)
财联社· 2025-09-17 23:28
北京时间周四凌晨,美联储如期宣布2025年首次降息,美联储主席鲍威尔随后召开了新闻发布会,以下为内容速览: P 4 4.25 3.5 3 2.5 2.5 1.75 2 1.5 1 0.25 0.5 0 数据来源: 美联储 美联储9月如期宣布进行2025年的首次降息。与市 场预期一致,联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调25个基点, 调整至4.00%-4.25%。 07 美联储决议声明变动 要动同 变动前 近期指标显示, 今 图章: 2017-01-20 11:22:52 经济方向 | 动继续影响数据, | | 年上半年经济活 | | --- | --- | --- | | 最近的指标表明, | | 动的增长有所放 | | 上半年经济活动 | | 缓。 | | 增长有所放缓。 | | | | 失业率保持在低 | | 就业增长速度减 | | 位,劳动力市场状 | | 慢, 失业率小幅上 | | 况依然稳健。 | | 升但仍处于低位。 | | 通胀率仍然略高。 | | 通胀有所上升,并 | | | | 保持在相对较高 | | | | 的水平。 | | 委员会正密切关 | 美联储 | 委员会密切关注 | | ...