当前经济形势与短期货币政策展望 一年前我站在这里时，美国经济正处于拐点。当时我们的政策利率已维持在5.25%-5.5%区间逾一年，这 种限制性政策立场对抑制通胀、推动总需求与总供给实现可持续平衡至关重要。彼时通胀已大幅接近目 标，劳动力市场也从此前的过热状态降温，通胀上行风险有所减弱。但失业率却上升了近1个百分点 ——从历史数据看，这种幅度的失业率上升通常只在衰退期间出现。在随后的三次联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议中，我们重新调整了政策立场，为过去一年劳动力市场在充分就业附近维持平衡奠定了 基础。 今年，经济面临新的挑战：对主要贸易伙伴加征的大幅关税正在重塑全球贸易体系；收紧的移民政策导 致劳动力增长突然放缓；长期来看，税收、支出与监管政策的调整也可能对经济增长与生产率产生重要 影响。这些政策最终会如何落地、对经济的长期影响将是什么，目前仍存在极大不确定性。 今年以来，美国经济在经济政策大幅调整的背景下展现出韧性。从美联储的双重使命目标（充分就业与 物价稳定）来看，劳动力市场仍接近充分就业水平，通胀虽仍略高于目标，但已较疫情后的峰值大幅回 落。与此同时，风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 贸易与移民政策的变化正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary goal of monetary policy in the second half of the year remains economic growth and full employment, with potential for monetary easing to exceed expectations [1] Group 1: External Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again in September, creating favorable conditions for monetary easing [1] - The U.S. imposing additional tariffs on China may impact Chinese exports, potentially leading to a temporary slowdown in economic growth and increased employment pressure [1] Group 2: Internal Factors - The economy is likely to remain in a low inflation environment in the second half of the year, with real interest rates still relatively high, indicating a need for further reductions [1] - A policy interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points is anticipated in the third quarter, which will guide the downward adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and further lower loan and deposit rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market remains close to full employment, providing the Federal Reserve with the opportunity to avoid hasty policy adjustments [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve should avoid policy fluctuations that could trouble the public, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The current labor market conditions allow the Federal Reserve sufficient time to assess the situation before making any changes [1] - The maximum employment goal is not facing risks similar to those of the inflation target, suggesting a more stable outlook for employment [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们能为住房做的最好的事情是稳定价格，充分就业。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：广泛指标显示就业市场接近充分就业。 ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：不确定目前的就业市场相对于充分就业水平所处的位置。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that the job market remains stable and is close to full employment levels [1] Group 1 - The employment market is showing signs of stability, suggesting a robust economic environment [1] - The current employment levels are approaching what is considered full employment, indicating a healthy labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's dual policy goals of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is under significant tension, which was not anticipated by the Federal Reserve itself [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its two main objectives: price stability and full employment [1] - The current economic environment has led to unexpected strains on the Federal Reserve's policy framework [1] - The implications of this tension could affect future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are to achieve price stability and full employment [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability as a key task [1] - Achieving full employment is also highlighted as a critical goal for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, emphasizes the need for patience in adjusting monetary policy due to ongoing uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and regulatory policies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Powell indicates that rising tariffs this year may increase prices and exert pressure on economic activity [1] - The Federal Reserve requires more time to assess the impact of current conditions on the economy [1] Group 2: Policy Goals - In the event of a dilemma between achieving full employment and price stability, the Federal Reserve will need to weigh the extent of deviation from each goal and the time required to achieve them [1]