英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：我们正逐渐接近货币政策在通胀目标和充分就业之间取得平衡的临界点。 就核心通胀而言，情况并不如我们所期望的那么好。 ...

尽管如此，博斯蒂克也承认，劳动力市场的变化同样需要密切关注。数据显示，截至2025年12月，美国 失业率已升至4.4%，高于2023年底的3.8%。不过，他指出，从历史角度看，4.4%的失业率仍处在"异常 强劲"的区间。即便近期裁员有所增加、职位空缺数量回落，博斯蒂克认为就业并非当前经济面临的最 大风险。 他还表示，与去年9月相比，企业高管对招聘市场的担忧已有所缓解，劳动力市场正在逐步走向一种相 对稳定的状态，这也为政策制定者在短期内"按兵不动"提供了空间。 在谈及宏观环境时，博斯蒂克指出，美国经济正经历明显的"扰动期"。特朗普政府的关税政策以及移民 政策变化，对企业经营和劳动力供给都带来了不小冲击，使美联储在平衡"物价稳定"和"充分就业"这两 大政策目标时面临更大挑战。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周四表示，通胀水平"过高且持续时间过长"，这要求货币政策继续保持"适 度限制性"的立场，以提高通胀回到2%目标的可能性。他在克拉克亚特兰大大学商学院的一场活动中指 出，稳定而偏紧的政策环境有助于增强美联储实现通胀目标的可信度。 根据最新预测，美联储偏好的通胀指标，个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数，在去年12月的同比涨幅 ...

现有指标显示，经济活动正以稳健步伐扩张。就业岗位新增数量维持低位，失业率呈现企稳迹象。通胀 水平仍处于偏高状态。 委员会致力于在长期内实现充分就业，并将通胀率维持在 2% 的目标水平。经济前景的不确定性依然较 高，委员会正密切关注其双重使命面临的双向风险。 为实现上述目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 不变。在考量联邦基金利 率目标区间后续调整的幅度和时机时，委员会将审慎评估最新经济数据、不断演变的经济前景以及风险 平衡状况。委员会坚定致力于推动充分就业实现，并促使通胀率回归 2% 的目标。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将持续关注最新信息对经济前景的影响。若出现可能阻碍委员会 目标实现的风险，委员会将准备适时调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考量各类信息，包括劳动 力市场状况、通胀压力与通胀预期指标，以及金融和国际经济发展态势。 本次货币政策行动的赞成者为：主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔、副主席约翰・威廉姆斯、迈克尔・巴尔、米歇 尔・鲍曼、莉萨・库克、贝丝・哈马克、菲利普・杰斐逊、尼尔・卡什卡里、洛里・洛根、安娜・保尔 森。 反对者为斯蒂芬・米兰和克里斯托弗・沃勒，二人主张在本 ...

1月29日，作为2026年首场利率决议，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，暂停了自去年9月以 来的连续三次降息步伐，符合市场预期。政策声明显示，与会者分歧仍存，理事米兰和理事沃勒对本次 利率决议持反对意见，支持降息25个基点。 为支持上述目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3-1/2至3-3/4个百分点。在考虑对联邦基 金利率目标区间进行进一步调整的幅度及时机时，委员会将审慎评估最新公布的数据、不断演变的前景 以及风险的平衡状况。委员会坚定致力于支持充分就业，并推动通胀回落至2%的目标水平。 在评估货币政策立场是否适当时，委员会将继续关注最新信息对经济前景的影响。如若出现可能阻碍委 员会实现其目标的风险，委员会将准备在适当情况下调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考虑广泛 的信息，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力及通胀预期，以及金融和国际形势的发展。 在本次货币政策行动中投赞成票的有：主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔（Jerome H. Powell）、副主席约翰·C·威廉 姆斯（John C. Williams）、迈克尔·S·巴尔（Michael S. Barr）、米歇尔·W·鲍曼（Michell ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success of Yangfan Community in achieving the status of a "National Level Fully Employed Community," with a focus on innovative employment strategies that cater to the needs of both migrant workers and local residents [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Strategies - The community has established a detailed employment management system by creating 167 "micro-grids" to track the employment status of 5,294 laborers, ensuring that they can secure jobs and increase their income [2]. - Community leaders proactively connect with external employers and organize labor dispatch services to facilitate job placements for returning workers, achieving a high employment rate [2][4]. - For the 343 local residents unable to work outside, the community has developed flexible job opportunities that allow them to work from home, such as bamboo shoot processing, which is suitable for elderly residents [3][4]. Group 2: Support for Families - The community has implemented initiatives like "Children's Home" to facilitate video calls between left-behind children and their working parents, helping to maintain family connections [4]. - Various community activities, such as family reunions and cultural events, are organized to support the emotional well-being of families with members working away from home [4]. - The community's "Assurance Project" combines employment services with social care, addressing the needs of both the elderly and children left behind by migrant workers [4]. Group 3: Employment Outcomes - The overall employment rate in the community stands at 93.5%, with 2,646 individuals employed outside the province and 1,740 working within the county [4]. - The recognition as a "National Level Fully Employed Community" serves as validation for the community's efforts in enhancing employment and social welfare [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Schmied indicates that the unemployment rate corresponding to full employment may range between 3.5% and 4.5% [1] Group 1 - The potential unemployment rate range suggests a stable labor market outlook, which could influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Insights - A senior official from the Federal Reserve recently discussed the independence of monetary policy, inflation and employment outlook, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy [1][2][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Independence - The official emphasized that monetary policy should be based on professional analysis and economic data, rather than being influenced by short-term external factors [2] - The decision-making process within the Federal Reserve requires thorough justification to persuade other committee members, ensuring professionalism and collective decision-making [2][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The official expressed cautious optimism regarding the current economic situation, noting that inflation is gradually easing, but the extent of decline remains uncertain [4] - There is a need to balance the dual mandate of maintaining price stability and promoting full employment, avoiding overly aggressive interest rate policies that could harm the labor market [4] Group 3: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - Many companies are experimenting with artificial intelligence technologies, but these efforts are still in the experimental phase and have not yet led to large-scale layoffs [4] - If artificial intelligence significantly enhances productivity as expected, it could improve overall economic competitiveness and living standards [4] - The construction of data centers for artificial intelligence raises new challenges for local energy supply and cost distribution, necessitating community-level regulatory considerations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to adhere to the dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability as approved by Congress [1] Group 1 - The candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position are all highly qualified [1] - The expectation is that the new Chair will follow the established dual responsibilities [1]

Group 1 - Hassett clarifies that Trump's views on interest rates are unrelated to the Justice Department's investigation of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the independence of both institutions [1] - He criticizes the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, attributing the current lack of economic prosperity in the U.S. to these policies [1] - Hassett confirms that the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters has significantly exceeded its budget, indicating a discrepancy with Chairman Powell's previous testimony [1] Group 2 - On employment issues, Hassett refrains from determining whether a 4.4% unemployment rate signifies "full employment," attributing recent high layoff numbers to federal government downsizing and the deportation of illegal immigrants [2] - He asserts that government economic policies are effective and predicts that measures aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing will lead to more hiring in the second half of the year [2] - Hassett expresses interest in potentially succeeding as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and economic data are creating a complex landscape for potential interest rate cuts in 2026, with market expectations continuously adjusting amid internal divisions within the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - The current target range for the Federal Funds Rate is maintained at 3.50%-3.75%, following a 25 basis point cut in December 2025, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [1]. - The FOMC decision was passed with a vote of 9-3, indicating significant internal disagreement, the highest dissent since 2019 [1]. - Divergent views among Fed officials are evident, with some advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December 2025 showed a strong increase of 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 180,000, marking the largest monthly gain since March 2023 [2]. - Despite robust job growth, wage growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, suggesting a moderation in labor market heat and a lack of excessive inflationary pressure [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low, slightly up from its yearly low but still consistent with full employment goals, providing a buffer for policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Inflation Metrics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in December 2025, stabilizing at this level for three consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3]. - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating manageable inflation pressures that could allow for potential rate cuts [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in January are only 18.3%, with an 81.7% chance of maintaining current rates; the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by March is 40.7% [3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates only one expected rate cut in 2026, while major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict two cuts, lowering rates to the 3.00%-3.25% range [3]. - Some institutions, such as Wells Fargo, suggest the possibility of three cuts throughout the year, depending on economic data trends [3]. Group 5: Personnel Changes and Market Sentiment - Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, with potential successors leaning towards dovish policies, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar [4]. - The Fed has initiated a short-term Treasury purchase program to maintain adequate reserves, raising concerns about potential distortions in policy signals and interest rate expectations [4]. - Economic fundamentals, including labor market trends, inflation persistence, and growth resilience, will directly influence policy adjustments, with any unexpected data fluctuations potentially altering the rate cut trajectory [4].