2026年1月7日美元指数震荡整理，暂报98.72，微涨0.15%。美联储最新政策动态、核心经济数据及人事 变量交织，让2026年降息路径更趋复杂，市场预期持续调整，政策分化与数据博弈成为当前核心主线。 当前失业率仍处于低位，虽较年内低点略有上行，但整体仍符合充分就业目标，这种"强劲但不过热"的 态势为政策调整提供了缓冲空间。 美联储核心关注的2025年12月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，连续3个月企稳该水平，环比增长 0.2%，均与市场预期一致。整体PCE物价指数同比上升2.6%，环比增长0.3%，通胀压力虽未完全回落 至2%目标，但已呈现温和可控态势，为降息提供了一定政策空间。 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，1月降息25个基点的概率仅为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率达81.7%；3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为40.7%，维持利率不变的概率为52.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅6.5%， 市场已基本排除年初激进降息可能。 市场与美联储内部对降息路径的预期存在显著差异。美联储点阵图中位数显示，2026年仅计划降息1 次，幅度25个基点；但主流机构预期更为激进，高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行等均预测全年将 ...

来源：环球市场播报 这种分歧使 "反对意见" 成为关注焦点 —— 投资者希望在周二至周三召开的会议上，捕捉美联储政策方 向与内部动态的相关信号。 "美联储的分歧程度似乎达到了很久以来的峰值，分歧具体有多深会非常值得关注，因为这可能会让我 们了解到美联储未来的政策倾向，" 安吉莱斯投资公司首席投资官迈克尔・罗森表示。 罗森补充称，不确定性源于美联储面临的挑战：需平衡"充分就业"与"稳定通胀"这两大核心目标。 周五公布的数据显示，以个人消费支出价格指数（PCE 物价指数）衡量的通胀水平符合预期，同时 12 月美国消费者信心有所改善。这些报告并未改变市场对美联储下周降息的预期。 来源：环球市场播报 美联储下周召开的会议预计将成为数年来争议最大的会议之一。投资者重点关注两方面：一是政策制定 者对 "预期降息" 的分歧程度，二是主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔就未来政策路径释放的信号。 美国联邦公开市场委员会12 名有投票权的成员中，已有 5 人对进一步宽松政策表示反对或质疑，而位 于华盛顿的美联储理事会中，有 3 名成员支持降息。 自 2019 年以来，联储公开市场委员会从未在单次会议中出现 3 票及以上反对的情况；1990 年至 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一项对经济学家的最新调查显示，美联储预计将在下周再次降息，以防止劳动力市 场急剧恶化的风险上升。与此同时，受访者的预测中值显示，美联储将在下周降息后暂停行动，并在 2026年3月再次启动降息，2026年全年将进行两次各25个基点的降息。 美联储政策制定者们在其价格稳定与充分就业的双重使命的风险平衡问题上存在严重分歧。一些地区联 储主席对持续通胀表示担忧，因为关税带来的价格上涨正传导至消费端。另一些地区联储主席则认为， 仍有再次降息的空间以支持就业市场。 多数经济学家预计美联储明年降息两次 这一调查结果与利率市场对美联储降息前景的预期一致。根据芝商所的"美联储观察"工具，交易员认为 美联储在下周降息25个基点的概率达87.2%，在2026年年底前累计降息50个基点、使联邦基金利率降至 3.00%-3.25%的概率为29.3%。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to continue lowering interest rates due to weak employment data, with a potential third consecutive rate cut in December being discussed [1][2] - The ISM services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, indicating economic expansion and potentially alleviating pressure on the Fed to cut rates further [2] - The manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 48.7 in October, suggesting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may counterbalance the positive signals from the services sector [3] Group 2 - The services sector, which is the largest part of the U.S. economy, showed resilience with improvements in business activity and new orders, potentially allowing the Fed more time to assess the economic situation [2] - Despite the positive services data, concerns remain regarding the manufacturing sector's performance, with several industries experiencing contraction [3] - The Fed's balancing act between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment continues to create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests a potential 25 basis point rate cut in December, but believes a 50 basis point cut is more justified if economic conditions remain unchanged [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Milan emphasizes that monetary policy should be based on future economic predictions rather than current inflation or employment data, as policy effects take 12 to 18 months to materialize [1] - He notes that the housing market is a more critical indicator of monetary policy effectiveness than stock market performance [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Housing Impact - Current inflation levels are partially inflated by "estimated items," particularly housing costs, while core price growth is closer to the Fed's 2% target when volatile items are excluded [2] - Policymakers should not overly worry about temporary inflation spikes but focus on more representative price trends [2] Group 3: Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's next rate decision meeting is scheduled for December, where officials will weigh the risks of price stability against full employment [2] - Despite inflation being above the 2% target for nearly five years, the labor market shows signs of cooling without a significant rise in unemployment [2]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in U.S. job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level [1] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term, but faces increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that there are short-term inflationary pressures and downside risks to employment, with significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December [1] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) and will end its balance sheet reduction plan after three and a half years, marking a key shift towards monetary easing [1] Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets initially experienced a sharp decline but later stabilized [3] - By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 saw slight declines, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a small gain and reached a new closing high [3] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed will stop reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet due to signs of tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves [2] - Starting December 1, the Fed will no longer allow up to $5 billion of U.S. Treasury securities to mature without reinvestment, opting instead to maintain government bond inventory stability through rollovers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts, impacting gold prices negatively. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Spot gold prices experienced a brief rise to $4007.47 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision but subsequently fell to $3930.42 per ounce, a drop of $77 [1] - As of Thursday morning, gold prices further declined to $3916.32 per ounce [2] - The overall decline in gold prices was nearly 0.6% by the end of Wednesday, despite an intraday increase of up to 2% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75%-4%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut and indicated the end of quantitative tightening by December 1 [3] - The statement highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, noting that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [3] Group 3: Powell's Hawkish Stance - Powell indicated significant internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, stating that further cuts are not guaranteed [4] - Following Powell's comments, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from 95% to 67.9%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points [4] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials reflects ongoing tensions between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [4][5] Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts have noted that the market's reaction to Powell's comments is justified, as the reduction in rate cut expectations will likely strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices [6] - The tension within the Fed regarding inflation and interest rates has led to a cooling of market expectations for December rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1][2] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [3] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, with the Fed aiming for full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term [3][4] Employment Risks - There is an increasing risk of a downturn in employment, with signs of pressure on low-income households and a rise in layoff announcements, although these have not yet led to an increase in unemployment claims [3][4] Inflation Concerns - Higher tariffs are contributing to price increases in certain categories, leading to overall inflation rising, but these effects may be temporary [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring the potential for persistent inflation impacts, which could complicate monetary policy [4] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed has decided to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, concluding the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1, after three and a half years [2][4] - The decision to stop QT means that the principal from MBS redemptions will be reinvested in short-term U.S. Treasury securities [4] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed regarding future rate actions, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [5][6] - Powell indicated that the lack of data due to the government shutdown could lead to a more cautious approach in future decisions [6] Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, market sentiment shifted, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the S&P 500 declining slightly, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.55%, reaching a new closing high [2][6] - Market expectations for a December rate cut are currently at 67.8%, with a 32.3% probability of maintaining current rates [6]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has decided to end its quantitative tightening (QT) strategy, which involves reducing its balance sheet [1][2] - The conclusion of QT will take effect on December 1, with a commitment to support maximum employment and achieve a 2% inflation target [2] Summary by Sections - **Quantitative Tightening Details** - The Fed has been allowing assets to mature since June 2022, reversing the significant increase in its balance sheet during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Monthly, the Fed has permitted up to $5 billion in Treasuries and up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to mature without reinvestment [2] - Over the recent months, the Fed has allowed more than $2 trillion in bonds to mature, effectively pulling money out of the financial system [2]

Group 1 - Recent inflation data has shown a softer-than-expected trend, leading to increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future [1][3][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose less than economists forecasted, indicating that price pressures are moderating and supporting the case for rate cuts [7][6] - Economists believe that the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation closer to the 2% target are making progress, providing the central bank with the necessary "breathing room" to adjust its policies [4][3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting is anticipated to result in a cut to the benchmark Federal Funds Rate, with a near-100% probability of a quarter-point cut in December [2][6] - Analysts highlight the delicate balance the Fed must maintain between achieving full employment and price stability, especially as jobless claims and hiring data have softened [4][5] - There is a consensus that cutting rates too quickly could reignite inflation, while waiting too long may further weaken the labor market [8]