Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has reached new highs, and there is a potential for a 70% increase under extreme conditions, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank policies [4][7]. - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, with reserves valued at $4.5 trillion [6]. - The recent trend of significant ETF purchases of gold is expected to continue, especially with the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement one more rate cut this year, with the federal funds rate projected to be in the range of 3.75% to 4% [9]. - The U.S. economy is viewed optimistically, with resilient consumer spending and a projected core CPI of around 3% by year-end [9]. - Historical data suggests that U.S. stocks have a 100% probability of rising in the 12 months following the initiation of rate cuts [9]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets, including China, are expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as the pressure from dollar-denominated debt and currency appreciation will ease [10]. - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to experience a structural bull market, particularly in technology, materials, and healthcare sectors, while traditional sectors like banking and real estate may underperform [13]. - Foreign capital is projected to start flowing back into Chinese markets by the end of 2024, driven by favorable conditions in emerging markets and the correlation between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [14]. Group 4: Technology Sector and AI - The technology sector in the U.S. is expected to continue its growth, with significant investments in AI leading to increased productivity [11]. - The current valuation of Chinese tech stocks is considered high, but there is optimism about their potential if technological challenges are addressed [11][12]. - The development of AI in China is progressing rapidly, with notable advancements in various sectors, although challenges remain in certain areas like semiconductor manufacturing [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is almost certain, with market expectations indicating an 85.5% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by weak economic data and a deteriorating job market [1][2][13]. Economic Data and Employment - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, which, while above the Fed's 2% target, shows stability that could allow for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls declining and the unemployment rate increasing, leading to concerns about the need for a preemptive rate cut [2][3]. Market Expectations - The market has heavily positioned itself for a rate cut, with CME data showing an 85.5% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91.9% expectation for further cuts in December [2][8]. Policy Shift - The Fed's decision-making logic is clear: weak economic data and a declining job market, combined with stable inflation, support a lower interest rate environment [3][12]. - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from combating inflation to addressing economic slowdown, marking a significant transition in monetary policy [12]. Impact on Consumers and Markets - A rate cut in October would likely lower borrowing costs for consumers, potentially stimulating spending and supporting the stock market [4]. - The Fed's cautious approach suggests that the rate cut will not lead to aggressive monetary easing but rather a gradual adjustment based on economic data [6]. Global Implications - The Fed's decision to cut rates will have significant global repercussions, likely weakening the dollar and attracting capital flows into emerging markets [7]. Conclusion - The October rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost a certainty, serving as a preventive measure against potential economic downturns and signaling a critical shift in monetary policy focus [13][14].

9月下旬，全球主要央行密集进入政策调整窗口。在贸易摩擦加剧、地缘政治风险上升与经济增长动能减弱的多重压力下，货币决策呈现出前所未有的分 化：日本央行历史性启动资产减持，美联储开启预防性降息，而欧洲与英国央行则在通胀粘性下选择按兵不动。这一轮政策调整凸显全球货币政策已从疫情 后高度协同，正式转入多速、多向、高不确定性的新周期，政策路径呈"正常化—宽松—观望"三轨并行格局。 | 央行 | 最新政策利率 | 本次决议动作 | 投票结果 | 核心理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本央行 (BOJ) | 0.50% | 维持不变 启动减持 | 7-2 两名委员主张加息 | 通胀部分回落, 潜在通胀仍强劲 | | | | ETF/J-REITs | | | | 美联储 | | | 8-1 | 就业放缓, | | (Fed) | 4.00%-4.25% | 降息 25bp | 1 人反対 | 经济动能减弱,通胀高 | | 欧洲央行 | 2.00% | 维持不变 | 未披露 | 通胁接近目标, | | (ECB) | | | | 经济韧性 | | 英国央行 | 4.00% | 维 ...

本报记者 韩昱 据新华财经9月24日消息，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国罗德岛州出席商会活动时表示，美国经济正面临通 胀上升与就业下行的"双向风险"，这一局面使货币政策制定面临艰难抉择。 "美联储本次降息的核心触发因素是近期美国就业数据的恶化速度、幅度和潜在风险远超通胀的温和反 弹。"东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对《证券日报》记者表示，美联储需要采取"预防性降息"来 应对可能加速恶化的就业形势。 9月24日，FedWatch数据显示，目前市场对10月份美联储将连续降息的预期较高。市场押注美联储10月 份降息25个基点的概率为91.9%，不降息的概率仅为8.1%。 不过，白雪认为，在预防性降息基调下，预计年内美联储还将降息2次，但在美国消费韧性及通胀压力 下，长期降息节奏将仍旧偏缓，是否能够开启连续降息存在较强的不确定性。 "对美国经济本身而言，本次降息能否有效提振经济仍存疑问。"白雪表示，当前美国经济的主要挑战在 于就业市场结构性失衡与制造业疲软，这些问题难以通过利率政策解决。美联储的风险管理策略更多是 为财政政策与结构性改革争取时间，但若这些配套措施未能及时跟进，单纯依赖美联储"渐进式"的货币 政策可能难以阻止 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the global financial markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese economy and its currency dynamics [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts** - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential further cuts in October and December, depending on inflation and labor market conditions [1][4]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Yuan and Equity Markets** - The Chinese Yuan is expected to appreciate, with projections of reaching around 7.0 by the end of 2025 and potentially breaking 7 in 2026. This appreciation is supported by exporters accumulating approximately $1.3 trillion in unconverted foreign exchange [2][3]. 3. **Liquidity and Market Sentiment** - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to increase global liquidity, positively impacting risk assets such as U.S. stocks and supporting the Chinese equity market [2][5]. 4. **Potential for Further Rate Cuts by PBOC** - The Fed's actions provide the People's Bank of China (PBOC) with room to lower rates, especially given the current macroeconomic data showing negative CPI and PPI growth [1][2]. 5. **Historical Context of Rate Cuts** - Historical analysis indicates that similar Fed actions typically lead to positive performance in various asset classes, particularly in non-recessionary periods [5][6]. 6. **Market Reactions to Different Economic Contexts** - The effectiveness of the Fed's rate cuts varies based on the economic context, with preemptive cuts generally benefiting emerging markets and growth stocks, while commodity and gold prices may see moderate gains [7][8]. 7. **Current Economic Conditions** - The U.S. economy shows signs of marginal weakening but does not exhibit clear signs of a hard landing. This environment suggests a cautious but upward-trending outlook for global markets, with emerging markets like A-shares benefiting from liquidity expansion [8]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of monitoring the basic economic conditions as they significantly influence market performance following Fed rate cuts. Historical precedents show that the market's response can vary widely based on the underlying economic health at the time of the cuts [6][8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut was supported by St. Louis Fed President Bullard for "preventive reasons" to avoid further deterioration in the labor market, but he noted limited room for future cuts given current rates are near neutral [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic does not support further rate cuts due to persistently high inflation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2] - The Fed faces a complex situation with signs of a cooling labor market and inflation not stabilizing at the 2% target, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Global central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are driving gold prices to record highs, with international gold prices reaching $3,728 per ounce, doubling since the end of 2022 [2][3] - Central banks have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, with expectations of 900 tons in 2023, driven by "de-dollarization" efforts [3] - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with 397 tons in the first half of 2023, the highest since 2020, and total holdings reaching 3,615.9 tons by June [3] Group 3: Jewelry and Investment Demand Trends - Global demand for gold jewelry has declined significantly, with a projected 14% drop in Q2 2025 to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since the pandemic [3] - Despite the decline in jewelry demand, investment demand for physical gold remains strong, with a 10% increase in bar purchases expected in 2024, while coin purchases are down 31% [4] - Overall retail investment demand is projected to grow by 2% to 1,218 tons in 2025, particularly driven by strong purchasing power in Asian markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged recently, with London gold breaking the $3,720 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures reaching $3,756.9 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold reached $3,720 per ounce, increasing over 1%, with an intraday high of $3,726.702 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose nearly 1.4%, closing at $3,756.9 per ounce, with a peak of $3,761.2 per ounce during the trading session [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's "preventive rate cut" policy, concerns over stagflation risks, and worries about the Fed's independence [3][4]. - A decline in the U.S. dollar index and issues surrounding the security of cryptocurrencies, particularly the drop in Bitcoin prices, have also contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has bolstered gold prices, especially following a dovish shift from Fed Chair Powell [3][5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic pressures in regions like Europe and the Middle East have heightened risk aversion, further supporting gold's price increase [3][4]. - Looking ahead, analysts believe that the long-term upward trend for gold is likely to continue, with potential targets of $3,800 and even $4,000 per ounce by year-end [5].

广发宏观周度述评（第32期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-31期，复盘必读） 内容 第一，年内第三轮政策集中发力期。 2025年以来，宏观经济政策经历两轮集中发力。 第一轮是年初，侧重点是居民部门预期。抓手之一是"两新"加力。1月5日《2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》落地 ；抓手之二 是落实地产领域政策，1月1日后各地批量下调存量贷款利率、优化住房公积金政策 ；抓手之三是巩固资本市场预期。1月24日六部门印发实施方案大力推动中长 期资金入市 。 从现实效果来看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，出口高开、地产好转、"两新"高增是背后的主要驱动。 第二轮是5月，侧重点是金融条件。抓手之一是货币政策放松，5月7日国新办发布会宣布了包括降准、降息、结构性货币政策工具扩容在内的一揽子政策 ；抓手之 二是加快"两重"项目落地，5月20日发改委发布会表示将推动一大批"两重"项目开工投产 ；抓手之三是进一步推动金融支持科技，七部委联合印发《加快构建科 技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》的通知 。 从现实效果来看，二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，在海外关税的扰动下依然保持了较明显的 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, reflecting a complex economic landscape with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [2][4] - The U.S. economy is showing a dual picture, with non-farm payrolls growing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly two years [4] - Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, both above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] Group 2: Political Influence and Economic Pressure - The rapid confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor has introduced political dynamics into monetary policy, as he is aligned with the Trump administration's pro-growth agenda [1][6] - The current U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and a 25 basis point rate cut could save nearly $100 billion in interest payments annually, highlighting fiscal pressures as a significant factor in policy decisions [5][9] - The Congressional Budget Office projects a fiscal deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, further intensifying the pressure for rate cuts as a means to alleviate fiscal burdens [9] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - The market has already begun to price in rate cuts, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,730 per ounce, reflecting a 48.94% increase since the last rate cut cycle began [10] - Historical data suggests that during initial rate cut cycles, technology growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, indicating potential short-term gains for the tech sector if the Fed proceeds with cuts [10] - Commodity markets are showing divergent trends, with precious metals like gold benefiting from the anticipated cuts, while industrial metals' performance will depend on the strength of global economic recovery [12]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, leading to a phase of price adjustments in both base and precious metals [1][2][18] - Copper prices have seen a downward shift, with the Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices have also experienced a phase adjustment, closing at 20,760 CNY/ton [1][18] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with gold averaging 829.33 CNY/gram and silver at 9,964 CNY/kilogram [2][22] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have decreased, with cautious purchasing from downstream enterprises. The market is expected to stabilize with potential increases in demand as the National Day holiday approaches [1][13] - Aluminum: Following the interest rate cut, aluminum prices have adjusted. The supply remains stable, but demand from the automotive sector has shown weakness [1][18] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have risen due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut, with market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook supporting these increases [2][22] Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices have decreased, with a cautious market outlook and weak supply-demand dynamics [3][32] - Lithium: Prices have slightly increased, but the market remains cautious with ample supply [32][33] - Cobalt: Prices have shown a slight upward trend, but demand remains subdued due to high costs [37][38] - Tin: Prices have weakened, with market sentiment cooling despite some support from raw material prices [45][46] - Tungsten: Prices have decreased, driven by weak demand and cautious trading behavior [51][52] - Molybdenum: Prices have declined, with market confidence shaken and a cautious outlook prevailing [57][58] Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with ongoing improvements in the fundamental market conditions [4][32]