Core Points - Turkey's government has announced an economic plan for 2026-2028, focusing on balanced growth, price stability, resilience, and sustainable prosperity [1][3] - The GDP growth targets for the next three years are set at 3.8% for 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 5% for 2028, with inflation expected to decrease from 16% in 2026 to 8% in 2028 [1][2] - The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline from 1.3% in 2026 to 1% in 2028, indicating a policy direction towards strengthening external balance [1] Economic Indicators - The economic growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 3.3%, with an inflation rate of 28.5% and a current account deficit of approximately 1.4% of GDP [1] - Tourism revenue is expected to rise from $64 billion in 2023 to $75 billion by 2028, while exports are projected to increase from $273.8 billion to $308.5 billion [1] Structural Reforms - The plan outlines key structural reforms, including digital transformation, development of high-value-added industries, green economy initiatives, and improved agricultural productivity [2] - Six financial and price stability reform measures will be implemented to create a more robust financial system, aligning price formation mechanisms with inflation levels [2] Inflation Control - The Turkish Vice President emphasized that combating inflation remains a primary goal, with significant progress noted since the implementation of tight monetary and fiscal policies [2] - The annual inflation rate has decreased by 42.5% since June 2024, with the latest data showing a decline to 32.95% in August, marking the 15th consecutive month of decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between maintaining price stability and ensuring full employment, particularly in light of the potential job losses due to the rise of artificial intelligence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Employment - David Zelvos, a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, warns that while the economy may experience strong growth rates of 3.5% to 4%, job growth may not be as optimistic, with unemployment potentially rising [1][3]. - Zelvos emphasizes that the Fed should focus more on the labor market rather than inflation, as leading figures in AI have indicated that the U.S. could lose 3 to 5 million jobs in the next three to four years [3]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Fed Independence - There is ongoing pressure on the Fed to balance its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, especially amid political tensions with former President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's cautious approach to interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Trump's recent social media post, depicting Powell as being fired, reflects his long-standing frustration with the Fed's monetary policy decisions, which he believes threaten economic growth [4][5]. Group 3: Current Monetary Policy Context - The current benchmark interest rate set by the Fed is approximately 4.1%, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year [5]. - Powell has warned that aggressive rate cuts could jeopardize inflation control, while other Fed officials have called for decisive action due to signs of labor market weakness [4][5].

Core Points - The U.S. economy is facing "dual risks" of a weak job market and rising inflation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] - Powell emphasized that the current economic situation is "challenging," with short-term inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks skewed downward [1] - The Federal Reserve's goal remains to achieve full employment and stable prices, but aggressive rate cuts could hinder the ability to bring inflation down to 2% [1] - The Fed decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that concerns about the job market currently outweigh concerns about inflation, leading to the recent decision to cut rates [1] - The Fed's policy stance is described as "moderately restrictive" to address potential future scenarios [1] Group 2 - In contrast to Powell's cautious approach, some Fed officials advocate for more aggressive rate cuts [2] - Fed Governor Stephen Moore suggested that rates should be quickly reduced to between 2% and 2.5% to avoid unnecessary layoffs and rising unemployment [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [2][4][5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.57%, indicating mixed performance across major indices [1] - The market had anticipated the rate cut, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point reduction prior to the announcement, and expectations for additional cuts in October and December [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to cut rates was a "risk management decision" due to signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation [5][6] - Powell emphasized a shift in focus from controlling inflation to ensuring "full employment," reflecting concerns about the labor market's health [6][7] - The article highlights the contrasting performance of large tech stocks, with companies like Tesla and Apple seeing slight gains, while others like Nvidia and Amazon experienced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell's leadership, highlighting the need for the Fed to resist the temptation to lower interest rates in response to market volatility, despite external pressures and past mistakes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The Federal Reserve is described as the "unluckiest" in history, facing significant external shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic, including trade policy impacts and internal conflicts [3]. - The Fed's credibility has been undermined by past misjudgments, particularly regarding inflation, and its political independence is now at risk [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks have adjusted their economic forecasts, raising inflation expectations and predicting a higher unemployment rate, indicating the Fed's policy dilemma in balancing employment and price stability [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed's current policy-making is marked by uncertainty, with conflicting signals regarding interest rate adjustments in response to rising unemployment and inflation [5][6]. - Market participants expect the Fed to lower interest rates multiple times this year, reflecting a historical pattern of the Fed responding to market volatility with easing measures [5][6]. - The persistent high inflation poses a significant challenge for the Fed, complicating its ability to address potential unemployment increases effectively [6]. Group 3: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The article suggests that the Fed must adopt a more humble approach to avoid repeating past mistakes in analysis, forecasting, and policy design [6]. - It is recommended that the Fed prioritize controlling inflation over addressing unemployment when both factors are moving in an unfavorable direction [6].