来源：掌控雷电大爷 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已公开承认，委员会在如何平衡"稳定物价"与"最大化就业"这两大法定使命 上，存在着"强烈分歧"。这种根本性的战略犹豫，正外化为一场罕见的公开政策辩论：是否应在下周的 会议上再度扣动降息的扳机？而此后又将何去何从？ 分歧已达历史极值 一个世纪的理念之争 中性利率，在学术文献中常被称为"r-star"（源于模型中的数学符号）或"自然利率"。它作为一个无法直 接观测、只能通过经济表现反向推断的理论概念，已困扰了经济学家一个多世纪。尽管经济学巨擘凯恩 斯等曾质疑其实际效用，但在现代中央银行家的工具箱里，它仍占据着神圣的一席之地。 当美联储在今年连续降息超过一个百分点后，其内部正悄然浮现一道深刻的裂痕。决策者们对于那个被 称为"中性利率"的关键指标究竟位于何处，产生了自2012年以来最严重的分歧。这场看不见硝烟的争 论，正直接牵引着本月货币政策的走向，让每一次降息决定都如履薄冰。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯是该理论的资深专家，他坚信这一理念居于"货币理论与实践的绝对核 心"。威廉姆斯曾警示历史教训：决策者若未能准确诊断中性利率和自然失业率的变动，可能引发深远 后果。他援引了上 ...

Core Points - Turkey's government has announced an economic plan for 2026-2028, focusing on balanced growth, price stability, resilience, and sustainable prosperity [1][3] - The GDP growth targets for the next three years are set at 3.8% for 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 5% for 2028, with inflation expected to decrease from 16% in 2026 to 8% in 2028 [1][2] - The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline from 1.3% in 2026 to 1% in 2028, indicating a policy direction towards strengthening external balance [1] Economic Indicators - The economic growth rate for 2025 is estimated at 3.3%, with an inflation rate of 28.5% and a current account deficit of approximately 1.4% of GDP [1] - Tourism revenue is expected to rise from $64 billion in 2023 to $75 billion by 2028, while exports are projected to increase from $273.8 billion to $308.5 billion [1] Structural Reforms - The plan outlines key structural reforms, including digital transformation, development of high-value-added industries, green economy initiatives, and improved agricultural productivity [2] - Six financial and price stability reform measures will be implemented to create a more robust financial system, aligning price formation mechanisms with inflation levels [2] Inflation Control - The Turkish Vice President emphasized that combating inflation remains a primary goal, with significant progress noted since the implementation of tight monetary and fiscal policies [2] - The annual inflation rate has decreased by 42.5% since June 2024, with the latest data showing a decline to 32.95% in August, marking the 15th consecutive month of decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between maintaining price stability and ensuring full employment, particularly in light of the potential job losses due to the rise of artificial intelligence [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Employment - David Zelvos, a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, warns that while the economy may experience strong growth rates of 3.5% to 4%, job growth may not be as optimistic, with unemployment potentially rising [1][3]. - Zelvos emphasizes that the Fed should focus more on the labor market rather than inflation, as leading figures in AI have indicated that the U.S. could lose 3 to 5 million jobs in the next three to four years [3]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Fed Independence - There is ongoing pressure on the Fed to balance its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, especially amid political tensions with former President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's cautious approach to interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Trump's recent social media post, depicting Powell as being fired, reflects his long-standing frustration with the Fed's monetary policy decisions, which he believes threaten economic growth [4][5]. Group 3: Current Monetary Policy Context - The current benchmark interest rate set by the Fed is approximately 4.1%, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year [5]. - Powell has warned that aggressive rate cuts could jeopardize inflation control, while other Fed officials have called for decisive action due to signs of labor market weakness [4][5].

Core Points - The U.S. economy is facing "dual risks" of a weak job market and rising inflation, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] - Powell emphasized that the current economic situation is "challenging," with short-term inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks skewed downward [1] - The Federal Reserve's goal remains to achieve full employment and stable prices, but aggressive rate cuts could hinder the ability to bring inflation down to 2% [1] - The Fed decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that concerns about the job market currently outweigh concerns about inflation, leading to the recent decision to cut rates [1] - The Fed's policy stance is described as "moderately restrictive" to address potential future scenarios [1] Group 2 - In contrast to Powell's cautious approach, some Fed officials advocate for more aggressive rate cuts [2] - Fed Governor Stephen Moore suggested that rates should be quickly reduced to between 2% and 2.5% to avoid unnecessary layoffs and rising unemployment [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [2][4][5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.57%, indicating mixed performance across major indices [1] - The market had anticipated the rate cut, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point reduction prior to the announcement, and expectations for additional cuts in October and December [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to cut rates was a "risk management decision" due to signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation [5][6] - Powell emphasized a shift in focus from controlling inflation to ensuring "full employment," reflecting concerns about the labor market's health [6][7] - The article highlights the contrasting performance of large tech stocks, with companies like Tesla and Apple seeing slight gains, while others like Nvidia and Amazon experienced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell's leadership, highlighting the need for the Fed to resist the temptation to lower interest rates in response to market volatility, despite external pressures and past mistakes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The Federal Reserve is described as the "unluckiest" in history, facing significant external shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic, including trade policy impacts and internal conflicts [3]. - The Fed's credibility has been undermined by past misjudgments, particularly regarding inflation, and its political independence is now at risk [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks have adjusted their economic forecasts, raising inflation expectations and predicting a higher unemployment rate, indicating the Fed's policy dilemma in balancing employment and price stability [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed's current policy-making is marked by uncertainty, with conflicting signals regarding interest rate adjustments in response to rising unemployment and inflation [5][6]. - Market participants expect the Fed to lower interest rates multiple times this year, reflecting a historical pattern of the Fed responding to market volatility with easing measures [5][6]. - The persistent high inflation poses a significant challenge for the Fed, complicating its ability to address potential unemployment increases effectively [6]. Group 3: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The article suggests that the Fed must adopt a more humble approach to avoid repeating past mistakes in analysis, forecasting, and policy design [6]. - It is recommended that the Fed prioritize controlling inflation over addressing unemployment when both factors are moving in an unfavorable direction [6].