Core Viewpoint - The cruise industry in China is facing a potential price war in 2026, driven by the cancellation of Japanese port routes and a shift towards Korean ports, leading to increased competition and pressure on pricing [4][12][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The cancellation of Japanese routes has forced cruise companies to focus on Korean ports, which has resulted in a significant drop in sales and increased competition among major players [5][12]. - The price of cruise tickets has plummeted, with examples such as Royal Caribbean's Spectrum of the Seas offering tickets as low as 1,831 yuan, indicating a return to a low-price era [9][11]. - The market is experiencing extreme product homogeneity, where cruise offerings are similar, leading consumers to choose based solely on price [18]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Companies like Aida Cruises are facing dual pressures of internal restructuring and declining sales after the cancellation of Japanese routes [5][12]. - The industry is witnessing aggressive marketing tactics, such as free cruise experiences for travel agents, to maintain market interest amid declining sales [6][8]. - The historical context of the industry shows that past geopolitical events, like the THAAD incident, have had immediate and severe impacts on cruise operations, suggesting that current challenges may be similarly disruptive [14][17]. Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - The introduction of a dual homeport model by MSC Cruises, allowing for both Chinese and Korean passengers, represents a potential shift in the operational model of the cruise industry in China [19][21]. - This new model could transform cruise ships from mere transportation to platforms for international tourism and local economic stimulation, aligning with national policies aimed at expanding service industry openness [24]. - The shift in perspective regarding the role of ports and cruise lines could provide a pathway for recovery and growth in the face of ongoing price competition [24].

01 最近，我陆续参加了几场邮轮业内的活动，推杯换盏寒暄背后，我发现大家关心的焦点出奇一致，甚至带着一丝焦虑，几乎所有人都在问同一个问题： 今年，邮轮价格战是不是又要回来了？ 这种焦虑并非空穴来风，去年年底开始，随着国内母港各家邮轮公司大幅削减、取消日本停靠港口航线，原本作为备选方案的韩国，突然成了各家船司眼 中救命稻草。 前几天，一家外资邮轮公司高管朋友和我直言，今年韩国 母港热度前所未有的大。 "因为我们调整日本航线决策做得晚了一些，等到反应过来想去抢占韩国港口时，才发现很多黄金排期早就被国内邮轮公司提前锁定了。" 最后没办法，他们只能动用集团全球总部力量，直接去和韩国政府谈判，好不容易才争取来釜山、济州岛几个停靠排期。 但这并没有让她松一口气，拿到船期只是第一步，能不能把票卖出去才是真正的考验。 朋友和我披露，从目前韩国航线的销售进度来看，和去年同期相比差距很大。 而这家外资邮轮公司原本保留的极少数2026年日本航线，也因为OTA平台首页无法宣传，公司层面不能大张旗鼓推广，导致销售进度慢了下来，远不如去 年11月前的火爆行情。 感受到寒意的，不只是外资巨头。 一位爱达邮轮的内部人士也向旅界披露了他们的近 ...