财达期货表示，钢厂因利润承压持续减产，铁水日均产量下降，焦炭需求减少，且钢厂继续降价意图明 显，焦炭市场看跌预期较高。 正信期货指出，焦炭方面，一轮提降落地，但前期原料煤降价幅度较大，焦企盈利能力改善，维持较高 开工。需求方面，铁水延续下滑，钢厂焦炭到货好转，按需采购为主。焦煤方面，产地部分煤矿因年度 任务完成或井下因素停减产，供应延续偏紧格局，蒙煤288口岸通关恢复至较高水平。需求方面，焦炭 有继续提降预期，下游焦企多按需采购原料，市场交易情绪冷清，部分超跌资源性价比显现，但整体需 求释放有限。综合来看，短期双焦基本面未有明显改善，盘面延续弱势。中期来看，煤矿供应端制约仍 存，铁水仍在高位，钢焦企业经过一段时间的原料消耗后，仍有补库需求。策略上，多单暂规避，等待 盘面企稳，套利关注焦煤1-5反套。 国投安信期货分析称，市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅 下降，目前下游少量按需采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下 游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭 盘面升水，价格或偏弱震荡为主。 12月 ...

| | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 9566T | 1366.5 | 090 | JM2601 | 810.5 | 788.0 | 22.5 | J01基美 | -85.4 | -59.4 | -26.0 | | J2605 | 1384.0 | 5 TBET | 25 | JM2605 | 836.0 | 812.0 | 24.0 | 105基差 | -76.9 | -74.4 | -55 | | 12509 | 1371.0 | 56FET | 215 | 8055VIE | 795.5 | 774.5 | 210 | 100 变蛋 | 639- | -424 | -21.5 | | 109-101 | -21.5 | -1 ...

Group 1: Market Data - The closing price of JM2509 futures was 775 yuan/ton, and J2509 was 1341 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - In the spot market, the warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product in Shanxi was 857 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Hao 5 was 793 yuan, and the warehouse receipt price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal was 908 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product of coking coal was 793 yuan/ton [3] - For coke, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1298 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1307 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of dry - quenched coke in Xingtai was 1320 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Changes - In the coke futures market, prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, J01 - J05 spread increased by 18.0, and J01 - J05 was - 0.5 compared to - 185 previously [2] - In the coking coal futures market, JM01 - JM05 spread increased by 7.5, and JM01 - JM05 was - 20.0 compared to - 27.5 previously [2] - Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices of Australian low - volatile and Shanxi optimal warehouse receipts were stable, while Australian medium - volatile decreased by 1 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Coke - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons (- 0.05%) from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3 tons, down 0.04 tons (- 0.08%) [2] - The daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants was 66.8 tons, down 0.27 tons (- 0.40%). The daily average coke consumption of 247 steel enterprises was 108.8 tons, down 0.05 tons (- 0.05%) [2] - The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6 tons (14.03%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 9.1 tons (- 1.39%). The port coke inventory decreased by 3.0 tons (- 1.40%) [2] Coking Coal - The daily average output of clean coal from 110 coal - washing plants was 51.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.60%). The daily average output of clean coal from 523 mines was 74.5 tons, down 1.8 tons (- 2.29%) [2] - The clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants increased by 23.0 tons (10.35%), and the raw coal inventory of 523 mines increased by 7.7 tons (1.63%) [2] - The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons (- 3.24%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.9 tons (- 2.02%). The port coking coal inventory increased by 6.6 tons (3.28%) [2] Group 4: Important News - On June 11, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum [4] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [4] - On June 11, President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point [4] - From June 10th to 11th, more than a dozen mainstream passenger car enterprises promised to unify the payment period to suppliers within 60 days. BAIC Group and SAIC Group gave up "commercial acceptance bills" [4] - On June 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 78.70 tons, a 17.1% decrease from the previous day. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 10.46 tons, a 4.9% increase [4] - On June 11, the ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton [5] - The average cost of billets for mainstream steel mills in Tangshan was 2832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% from the previous period. The daily output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons [5] - The China Electricity Council predicted that the price of thermal coal would remain weak and stable before the full release of demand [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy and Core View - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 170 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 185 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke [6] - The current fundamental situation of coking coal and coke remains weak, with significant downward pressure. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and the reduction in iron - making output has slowed down [6] - Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are eager to suppress raw material prices. Coking enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, and their inventories are growing rapidly. After the third round of price cuts, coking enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply is also relatively loose, although it has slightly decreased. The spot market of coking coal is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]