黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

Group 1: Market Data - The closing price of JM2509 futures was 775 yuan/ton, and J2509 was 1341 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - In the spot market, the warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product in Shanxi was 857 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Hao 5 was 793 yuan, and the warehouse receipt price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal was 908 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product of coking coal was 793 yuan/ton [3] - For coke, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1298 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1307 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of dry - quenched coke in Xingtai was 1320 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Changes - In the coke futures market, prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, J01 - J05 spread increased by 18.0, and J01 - J05 was - 0.5 compared to - 185 previously [2] - In the coking coal futures market, JM01 - JM05 spread increased by 7.5, and JM01 - JM05 was - 20.0 compared to - 27.5 previously [2] - Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices of Australian low - volatile and Shanxi optimal warehouse receipts were stable, while Australian medium - volatile decreased by 1 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Coke - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons (- 0.05%) from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3 tons, down 0.04 tons (- 0.08%) [2] - The daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants was 66.8 tons, down 0.27 tons (- 0.40%). The daily average coke consumption of 247 steel enterprises was 108.8 tons, down 0.05 tons (- 0.05%) [2] - The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6 tons (14.03%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 9.1 tons (- 1.39%). The port coke inventory decreased by 3.0 tons (- 1.40%) [2] Coking Coal - The daily average output of clean coal from 110 coal - washing plants was 51.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.60%). The daily average output of clean coal from 523 mines was 74.5 tons, down 1.8 tons (- 2.29%) [2] - The clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants increased by 23.0 tons (10.35%), and the raw coal inventory of 523 mines increased by 7.7 tons (1.63%) [2] - The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons (- 3.24%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.9 tons (- 2.02%). The port coking coal inventory increased by 6.6 tons (3.28%) [2] Group 4: Important News - On June 11, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum [4] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [4] - On June 11, President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point [4] - From June 10th to 11th, more than a dozen mainstream passenger car enterprises promised to unify the payment period to suppliers within 60 days. BAIC Group and SAIC Group gave up "commercial acceptance bills" [4] - On June 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 78.70 tons, a 17.1% decrease from the previous day. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 10.46 tons, a 4.9% increase [4] - On June 11, the ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton [5] - The average cost of billets for mainstream steel mills in Tangshan was 2832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% from the previous period. The daily output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons [5] - The China Electricity Council predicted that the price of thermal coal would remain weak and stable before the full release of demand [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy and Core View - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 170 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 185 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke [6] - The current fundamental situation of coking coal and coke remains weak, with significant downward pressure. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and the reduction in iron - making output has slowed down [6] - Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are eager to suppress raw material prices. Coking enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, and their inventories are growing rapidly. After the third round of price cuts, coking enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply is also relatively loose, although it has slightly decreased. The spot market of coking coal is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]