Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - metal industry is in a state of weak supply and demand during the consumption off - season, with significant inventory pressure. For steel products, the cost support has weakened due to the sharp decline in coking coal prices. For iron ore, the decline in steel production suppresses raw material prices, and the rising port inventory also exerts pressure on futures prices [2][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For both steel products (thread and hot - rolled coil) and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly. For steel products, short - selling is not recommended at the current position. For iron ore, a mid - term trading approach with an oscillatory mindset should be adopted, avoiding chasing highs or selling lows [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of thread and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of thread was relatively small. The apparent demand declined overall, and the market was in a state of weak supply and demand. As the steel mill's gross profit dropped significantly and the consumption peak has passed, the steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of thread steel and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The spot prices of some products remained unchanged or decreased slightly [3]. - **Production**: The production of national building material steel mills' thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills' thread steel increased significantly [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products and thread decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products and hot - rolled coil increased, while the steel mill inventory of thread decreased [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased week - on - week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased last week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel mill's production reduction suppresses the raw material prices. The pre - holiday replenishment demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. The prices of various iron ore powder products in different ports also changed [5]. - **Shipments**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while the Brazilian iron ore shipments increased significantly [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore increased, while the sintered powder inventory of imported ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [5]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending December 17, according to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production increased, the factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory decreased. The apparent demand increased [7]. - The government of Amapá state in Brazil plans to restart the iron ore production of the Amapá project, which is expected to attract up to $200 million in investment. Cadence recently raised $6 million on the London Stock Exchange to resume the operation of the Azteca small - scale mine, with an expected annual production of 380,000 - 400,000 tons of iron concentrate [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with significant inventory pressure. Steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to reduced mill margins and the end of the consumption peak. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market [2]. - For iron ore, as the consumption off - season approaches, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on prices, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remains significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure for threaded bars is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Cost**: The recent sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, but it has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position. If the market continues to decline and forms a new downward trend, appropriate position reduction or liquidation can be considered. Shorting is not recommended at the current position [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract was 3081 yuan/ton, up 0.06% week - on - week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3246 yuan/ton, down 0.18% week - on - week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 80.16%, down 0.93 percentage points week - on - week; the average daily pig iron output was 229.2 million tons, down 1.33% week - on - week [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. As the consumption off - season arrives, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel production by mills is suppressing raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday replenishment demand will also come later than in previous years [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is putting pressure on futures prices. The building steel production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range oscillation pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position for medium - term trading. Adopt an oscillation mindset and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 753 yuan/dry ton, down 3.28% week - on - week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 102.55 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.81% week - on - week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1764.1 million tons, down 1.20% week - on - week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 819.5 million tons, up 37.92% week - on - week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of December 16, 5 steel mills announced their 2026 winter - storage policies, covering the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions. The policies require full payment by December 20, and the unsettled resources will be settled at the average price from March 16 to April 15 next year, with a daily settlement cap of 15%, and the interest calculation method is 6‰ per day, with interest stopping on the point - pricing day [7]. - According to the official notice of the Handan Ecological Environment Bureau, Handan officially launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 14. Steel enterprises in the jurisdiction need to strictly implement production - restriction control measures. Three blast furnaces of plate mills in Handan are under maintenance, and it is expected that the average daily pig iron output will decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, which will further affect the average daily pig iron output by about 5,000 tons [7]. - The Yimin Coal Mine of Inner Mongolia Youheng Coal Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major safety hazards [7].

Group 1 - The northern region is experiencing frequent low temperatures and rain, significantly limiting real estate and infrastructure construction [1] - December to February is traditionally a low consumption season for construction steel, leading to a decrease in high furnace iron output as steel mills enter maintenance periods [1] - High furnace iron output has remained at a high level this year, resulting in increased demand for iron ore, but steel mills are facing significant profit squeezes [1] Group 2 - From January to October, China imported 1.03 billion tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 0.79% [2] - The import of iron ore from India decreased by 43% year-on-year due to increased domestic steel production in India [2] - Iron ore imports from major mining companies have gradually recovered in the second half of the year, with significant month-on-month increases in imports from June to October [2] Group 3 - Environmental inspections and the seasonal decline in steel consumption are expected to increase the number of steel mills entering maintenance, leading to a probable decrease in high furnace iron output and a decline in iron ore demand [3] - Iron ore imports are continuously increasing, and port inventories are accumulating, indicating a potential weak fluctuation in short-term futures prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread increased, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline, but the inventory of hot - rolled coil was significantly higher than in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. Due to the sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. In the off - season of consumption, the futures price has limited upward momentum. Technically, the futures price is oscillating at a low level on the daily K - line chart, and the oscillation range is narrowing, indicating a potential breakthrough [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the iron - making water production will likely continue to decline seasonally, and the reduction of steel mill production will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will also come later than usual. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the high level, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. Additionally, the arrival volume increased significantly last week, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Price Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.23%) from the previous day and up 29 yuan (0.94%) from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day and up 27 yuan (0.82%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different trends [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mill thread steel was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons (3.98%) from last week; the production of hot - rolled coil was 316.01 tons, up 2.35 tons (0.75%) from last week. The total social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 31.98 tons (- 3.01%) from last week, the thread social inventory decreased by 15.73 tons (- 3.78%), and the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons (- 2.68%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long for medium - term trading [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 797 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and up 5.5 yuan (0.69%) from last week. Other related prices also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1676.7 tons, down 65.2 tons (- 3.74%) from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 712.4 tons, down 59.6 tons (- 7.72%) from last week. The northern six - port arrival volume increased by 397 tons (38.13%) from last week, and the port inventory decreased by 75.06 tons (- 0.50%) [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [5]. **III. Industry News** - In mid - November, key steel enterprises produced 1943 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 194.3 million tons, a daily - output increase of 0.9% month - on - month; 1797 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.7 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 0.4% month - on - month; and 1924 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily - output increase of 2.1% month - on - month [7]. - According to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production was 441.67 tons, a decrease of 4.62 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 394.17 tons, a decrease of 20.68 tons from last week; the social inventory was 470.96 tons, a decrease of 19.68 tons from last week; and the total inventory was 865.13 tons, a decrease of 40.36 tons from last week [7]. - On November 26, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market fell across the board. As of now, among the 9 transaction results counted, with a total listing of 24 tons, the flow - rate was about 62%, and the average decline was 53 yuan/ton [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Rebound and hedge on opportunity [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [9] Core Views - Steel: Market expectations are weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Steel has entered the traditional off - season, with a slight increase in production and a slight decrease in inventory. Exports are resilient, and prices are generally stable [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has weakened, and ore prices are oscillating downward. Supply is rising, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply is expected to increase, and prices are oscillating weakly. Coke supply may decline further, and demand is weakening. Coking coal supply will be in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long term [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: Mines have resumed production, and demand is expected to strengthen. In the short - term, prices will rise slightly, while the supply is in a loose pattern in the long - term [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, rebar futures closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The speculative atmosphere was weak, and the spot market transactions were generally weak, with enterprises mainly making necessary purchases. The national building materials transaction volume was 100,000 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In the off - season, production is slightly up, and inventory is slightly down. Rebar inventory decline supports prices, and the plate market has strong supply and demand. Exports are resilient due to low prices, and macro sentiment has improved [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral - neutral; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. Spot prices of mainstream imported varieties slightly declined. The total trading volume of main ports was 1.058 million tons, a 18.08% increase, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.54 million tons, a 116.90% increase [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has declined, but overall supply is rising. There is an expectation of port inventory accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore consumption is resilient, and the short - term rebound height is limited [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral - hedge on rebound opportunities; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated downward. Coke 2509 closed at 1388.5 yuan/ton, a 2.46% decline, and coking coal 2509 closed at 814.5 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decline. The import market was weak [5][6]. - Logic and Views: Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke futures are weak. Coke supply may decline, and demand is weakening. Coking coal supply will be loose in the medium - to - long term [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal - oscillation; Coke - oscillation; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: Mines have resumed production after the safety month, increasing supply. With rising temperatures, traders' bullish sentiment may drive up demand. Port inventory has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. The import market is stable [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, supply increases, and demand is expected to strengthen in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [8]. - Strategy: No strategy provided [9]

Group 1: Market Data - The closing price of JM2509 futures was 775 yuan/ton, and J2509 was 1341 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - In the spot market, the warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product in Shanxi was 857 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Hao 5 was 793 yuan, and the warehouse receipt price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal was 908 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product of coking coal was 793 yuan/ton [3] - For coke, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1298 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1307 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of dry - quenched coke in Xingtai was 1320 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Changes - In the coke futures market, prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, J01 - J05 spread increased by 18.0, and J01 - J05 was - 0.5 compared to - 185 previously [2] - In the coking coal futures market, JM01 - JM05 spread increased by 7.5, and JM01 - JM05 was - 20.0 compared to - 27.5 previously [2] - Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices of Australian low - volatile and Shanxi optimal warehouse receipts were stable, while Australian medium - volatile decreased by 1 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Coke - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons (- 0.05%) from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3 tons, down 0.04 tons (- 0.08%) [2] - The daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants was 66.8 tons, down 0.27 tons (- 0.40%). The daily average coke consumption of 247 steel enterprises was 108.8 tons, down 0.05 tons (- 0.05%) [2] - The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6 tons (14.03%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 9.1 tons (- 1.39%). The port coke inventory decreased by 3.0 tons (- 1.40%) [2] Coking Coal - The daily average output of clean coal from 110 coal - washing plants was 51.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.60%). The daily average output of clean coal from 523 mines was 74.5 tons, down 1.8 tons (- 2.29%) [2] - The clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants increased by 23.0 tons (10.35%), and the raw coal inventory of 523 mines increased by 7.7 tons (1.63%) [2] - The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons (- 3.24%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.9 tons (- 2.02%). The port coking coal inventory increased by 6.6 tons (3.28%) [2] Group 4: Important News - On June 11, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum [4] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [4] - On June 11, President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point [4] - From June 10th to 11th, more than a dozen mainstream passenger car enterprises promised to unify the payment period to suppliers within 60 days. BAIC Group and SAIC Group gave up "commercial acceptance bills" [4] - On June 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 78.70 tons, a 17.1% decrease from the previous day. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 10.46 tons, a 4.9% increase [4] - On June 11, the ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton [5] - The average cost of billets for mainstream steel mills in Tangshan was 2832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% from the previous period. The daily output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons [5] - The China Electricity Council predicted that the price of thermal coal would remain weak and stable before the full release of demand [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy and Core View - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 170 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 185 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke [6] - The current fundamental situation of coking coal and coke remains weak, with significant downward pressure. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and the reduction in iron - making output has slowed down [6] - Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are eager to suppress raw material prices. Coking enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, and their inventories are growing rapidly. After the third round of price cuts, coking enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply is also relatively loose, although it has slightly decreased. The spot market of coking coal is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]