投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月18日08时13分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。 近期煤焦价格大幅下跌，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大。短期来看，钢材出口许可制度的实施以及生 产许可证制度方面的变化对市场影响已经比较充分的反映在价格中 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有 摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有。当前的位置不建议做空。 操作建议： 多单可以轻仓持有，中线交易。以震荡思路对待，不可追涨杀跌 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，如果后市继续下跌，且形成新的下行趋势，可以适当减仓或平仓离场。当前的位置不建议做空。 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年12月17日08时19分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期 ，螺纹去库压力相 对较小。本周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。近期煤焦价 格大幅下跌，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大。短期来看，钢材出口许可制度的实施以及生产许可证制 度方面的变化对市场仍有一定的压力 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹 ，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间。 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘 ...

综上所述，受环保督察力度加强、钢材消费淡季以及钢厂利润被大幅挤压等因素影响，钢厂高炉停产检 修数量将增加，高炉铁水产量大概率下降，铁矿石需求将下滑。同时，铁矿石进口不断增长，港口库存 持续累积，短期期货价格或偏弱震荡。（作者单位：中州期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 近期，北方地区低温与雨雪天气频发，房地产与基建施工显著受限。每年12月至次年2月为建筑钢材的 传统消费淡季，钢厂高炉进入停产检修期，高炉铁水产量将下降。今年高炉铁水产量长期处于近年高 位，铁矿石需求随之增加，铁矿石价格走势强于钢材导致钢厂利润被大幅挤压。截至本周一，螺纹钢钢 厂高炉利润亏损29元／吨，热卷高炉即期利润亏损69元／吨，部分钢厂基于自身利润情况会加大高炉减 产力度。受淡季订单减少、钢厂亏损、环保督察力度增强等因素影响，钢厂高炉停产检修数量将增加， 高炉铁水产量大概率进一步下降，进而导致铁矿石需求下降。 进口方面，1—10月我国累计进口铁矿石10.3亿吨，同比增加0.79%。今年上半年，受澳洲飓风等极端天 气影响，我国从主流矿山进口的铁矿石数量下降。非主流矿山方面，印度国内钢铁产能增长导致其对外 出口显著减少，1—10月我国进口印度铁矿石 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread increased, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline, but the inventory of hot - rolled coil was significantly higher than in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. Due to the sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. In the off - season of consumption, the futures price has limited upward momentum. Technically, the futures price is oscillating at a low level on the daily K - line chart, and the oscillation range is narrowing, indicating a potential breakthrough [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the iron - making water production will likely continue to decline seasonally, and the reduction of steel mill production will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will also come later than usual. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the high level, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. Additionally, the arrival volume increased significantly last week, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Price Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.23%) from the previous day and up 29 yuan (0.94%) from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day and up 27 yuan (0.82%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different trends [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mill thread steel was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons (3.98%) from last week; the production of hot - rolled coil was 316.01 tons, up 2.35 tons (0.75%) from last week. The total social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 31.98 tons (- 3.01%) from last week, the thread social inventory decreased by 15.73 tons (- 3.78%), and the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons (- 2.68%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long for medium - term trading [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 797 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and up 5.5 yuan (0.69%) from last week. Other related prices also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1676.7 tons, down 65.2 tons (- 3.74%) from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 712.4 tons, down 59.6 tons (- 7.72%) from last week. The northern six - port arrival volume increased by 397 tons (38.13%) from last week, and the port inventory decreased by 75.06 tons (- 0.50%) [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [5]. **III. Industry News** - In mid - November, key steel enterprises produced 1943 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 194.3 million tons, a daily - output increase of 0.9% month - on - month; 1797 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.7 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 0.4% month - on - month; and 1924 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily - output increase of 2.1% month - on - month [7]. - According to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production was 441.67 tons, a decrease of 4.62 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 394.17 tons, a decrease of 20.68 tons from last week; the social inventory was 470.96 tons, a decrease of 19.68 tons from last week; and the total inventory was 865.13 tons, a decrease of 40.36 tons from last week [7]. - On November 26, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market fell across the board. As of now, among the 9 transaction results counted, with a total listing of 24 tons, the flow - rate was about 62%, and the average decline was 53 yuan/ton [8].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

Group 1: Market Data - The closing price of JM2509 futures was 775 yuan/ton, and J2509 was 1341 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - In the spot market, the warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product in Shanxi was 857 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Hao 5 was 793 yuan, and the warehouse receipt price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal was 908 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product of coking coal was 793 yuan/ton [3] - For coke, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1298 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1307 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of dry - quenched coke in Xingtai was 1320 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Changes - In the coke futures market, prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, J01 - J05 spread increased by 18.0, and J01 - J05 was - 0.5 compared to - 185 previously [2] - In the coking coal futures market, JM01 - JM05 spread increased by 7.5, and JM01 - JM05 was - 20.0 compared to - 27.5 previously [2] - Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices of Australian low - volatile and Shanxi optimal warehouse receipts were stable, while Australian medium - volatile decreased by 1 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Coke - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons (- 0.05%) from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3 tons, down 0.04 tons (- 0.08%) [2] - The daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants was 66.8 tons, down 0.27 tons (- 0.40%). The daily average coke consumption of 247 steel enterprises was 108.8 tons, down 0.05 tons (- 0.05%) [2] - The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6 tons (14.03%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 9.1 tons (- 1.39%). The port coke inventory decreased by 3.0 tons (- 1.40%) [2] Coking Coal - The daily average output of clean coal from 110 coal - washing plants was 51.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.60%). The daily average output of clean coal from 523 mines was 74.5 tons, down 1.8 tons (- 2.29%) [2] - The clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants increased by 23.0 tons (10.35%), and the raw coal inventory of 523 mines increased by 7.7 tons (1.63%) [2] - The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons (- 3.24%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.9 tons (- 2.02%). The port coking coal inventory increased by 6.6 tons (3.28%) [2] Group 4: Important News - On June 11, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum [4] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [4] - On June 11, President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point [4] - From June 10th to 11th, more than a dozen mainstream passenger car enterprises promised to unify the payment period to suppliers within 60 days. BAIC Group and SAIC Group gave up "commercial acceptance bills" [4] - On June 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 78.70 tons, a 17.1% decrease from the previous day. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 10.46 tons, a 4.9% increase [4] - On June 11, the ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton [5] - The average cost of billets for mainstream steel mills in Tangshan was 2832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% from the previous period. The daily output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons [5] - The China Electricity Council predicted that the price of thermal coal would remain weak and stable before the full release of demand [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy and Core View - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 170 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 185 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke [6] - The current fundamental situation of coking coal and coke remains weak, with significant downward pressure. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and the reduction in iron - making output has slowed down [6] - Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are eager to suppress raw material prices. Coking enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, and their inventories are growing rapidly. After the third round of price cuts, coking enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply is also relatively loose, although it has slightly decreased. The spot market of coking coal is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]