瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.29」 焦炭市场周报 原料限仓跟随回落，七轮提涨企业盈利 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 目录 1. 宏观方面，7月，我国单月用电量首次突破1万亿千瓦时大关，相当于日本全年的用电量总和，现在迎峰度夏基本结束，我国电 力供应平稳有序；最近，江苏银行、南京银行等多家中小银行宣布下调存款利率，降幅达10到20个基点，三年定期利率进入 1.25时代；1—7月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润总额643.6亿元，同比增长5175.4%。 2. 海外方面，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上表示，美联储对降息持开放态度，受此影响，夜盘黑色大 幅反弹；特朗普宣布"开除"现任美联储理事，称降息将成联储多数派主张；美联储理事沃勒表示，支持美联储9月会议降息25个 基点，预计未来3—6个月将进一步降息。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁水产量2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coking coal and coke prices is experiencing upward fluctuations, with market expectations indicating that the fourth round of coke price reductions may commence soon [1] Group 1 - The night trading session saw both coking coal and coke futures prices oscillating upwards [1] - Market anticipations suggest that the initiation of the fourth round of coke price reductions could occur at this time [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. The follow - up still needs to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and emotional factors. Coke will be used as a short - position variety in the black market, with a volatile and weak trend. Focus on strategies such as narrowing coking profit and 91 positive spreads [2][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 935.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 939.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 877.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 877.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 44.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 1,276,899.0 lots and an open interest of 403,016.0 lots. - The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 last week was 1,538.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,552.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,444.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 86.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 93,798.0 lots and an open interest of 50,769.0 lots [5] Basis Analysis - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 169 yuan/ton. The port - converted warehouse - receipt price of coke was 1460 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coke 2509 contract was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 13 yuan/ton [5] Spread Analysis - The closing price of the main coke 2509 contract last week was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 coke and 2509 coking coal was 569.0 yuan/ton [5] Domestic Spot - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [6] Port Inventory and Quotations Port Inventory - As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 750.00 million tons; the total coal inventory at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons; the coal inventory at Jingtang Port was 0.00 million tons, and the inventory at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 45.10 million tons [12] Port Quotations - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of foreign - trade Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [12] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 640.35, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,353.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,709.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [14] Coking Industry Coke Price Index - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [17] Coke Inventory - This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [19] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with the lower support level at 850 - 950 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with the lower support level at 1300 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1600 yuan/ton [23] Operation Suggestions - Interval operation [26]