| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月7日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | 198 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | ୧୫ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3250 | O | 168 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3111 | 3104 | 7 | 169 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3156 | 3146 | 10 | 124 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3082 | 3088 | -6 | 198 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3250 | 10 | 20 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3160 | 3170 | -10 | -80 | | | 热卷现货(华南 ...

中辉期货双焦周报 弱现实逐步兑现，双焦承压下跌 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/12/12 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司,上海钢联 来源:上海钢联,中辉期货有限公司 双焦观点摘要 【后市展望】：从供应端来看，当前焦煤处于"内紧外松"的格局，即国产煤供应收紧，但有进口煤作为补充。 需求方面，从季节性来看，当前时间节点至明年一月份，铁水产量仍有一定的下降空间。因此，焦煤基本面在 未来一段时间内仍将维持偏弱姿态。截至本周五，焦煤指数合约已跌破1000元整数关口，主力合约增仓约2.7 万手，市场看空情绪较浓。策略上前期空单可继续持有，新单关注阶段性反弹后逢高做空的机会。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提降、铁水产量下行等。 2 【市场概况】：本周黑色商品全线下跌，焦煤依然是板块中最弱的品种，主力合约周跌幅超10%。从供需层 面来看，受煤矿年度生产任务完成和换工作面等因素影响，产地供应量仍处同期低位水平，库存维持季节性累 库。下游方面，近期钢厂检修逐渐增多，铁水产量环比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silicon iron market is currently stable, with recent bidding prices holding steady and a cautious market sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant news stimuli [1][2][6] - A new round of silicon iron bidding prices has been announced at 5700 yuan/ton in Central China, remaining unchanged from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 200 tons [1] - In the North, major manufacturers have not yet finalized their silicon iron bidding prices, leading to a general wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, with actual transaction volumes needing improvement [2][6] Group 2 - The futures market for silicon iron showed a low open and a subsequent recovery, with the main contract closing at 5462 points, up 18 points from the previous day, indicating a potential technical rebound [3] - The trading volume in the futures market decreased by 16.9 million contracts to 245,000 contracts, while open interest increased by 3,413 contracts to 27,100 contracts, suggesting a mixed market sentiment [3] - The steel market is experiencing a decline in demand during the off-season, with steel mills increasing maintenance and production cuts, which is expected to impact the overall market performance [6] Group 3 - The consensus among key coking enterprises is to implement production cuts of no less than 30% to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize market prices, while also optimizing coal inventory structures to control costs [6] - The overall market is expected to face both opportunities and challenges, with potential demand release towards the end of the year, but adverse effects from weak coal prices and seasonal weather conditions may impact raw material demand [7] - The current market dynamics suggest a stalemate in pricing, with limited room for significant adjustments in the near term [7]

财达期货表示，钢厂因利润承压持续减产，铁水日均产量下降，焦炭需求减少，且钢厂继续降价意图明 显，焦炭市场看跌预期较高。 正信期货指出，焦炭方面，一轮提降落地，但前期原料煤降价幅度较大，焦企盈利能力改善，维持较高 开工。需求方面，铁水延续下滑，钢厂焦炭到货好转，按需采购为主。焦煤方面，产地部分煤矿因年度 任务完成或井下因素停减产，供应延续偏紧格局，蒙煤288口岸通关恢复至较高水平。需求方面，焦炭 有继续提降预期，下游焦企多按需采购原料，市场交易情绪冷清，部分超跌资源性价比显现，但整体需 求释放有限。综合来看，短期双焦基本面未有明显改善，盘面延续弱势。中期来看，煤矿供应端制约仍 存，铁水仍在高位，钢焦企业经过一段时间的原料消耗后，仍有补库需求。策略上，多单暂规避，等待 盘面企稳，套利关注焦煤1-5反套。 国投安信期货分析称，市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅 下降，目前下游少量按需采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下 游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭 盘面升水，价格或偏弱震荡为主。 12月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, on December 1st, the first round of price cut was implemented. The FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port dropped by 50 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price was 1,450 yuan/ton. There is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market. In terms of supply and demand, the latest data from Steel Union shows that the daily average coke output was 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side remaining. Overall, there is still uncertainty in the coking coal supply in December, and there is some resistance to further decline in coke futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the actual production situation of coal mines [6][35]. - For coking coal, there is no obvious difference in the demand side, and the supply side is the core factor leading the market trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. In addition, the recent coking coal output was not affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic that previously supported the upward trend of coal prices. The market sentiment gradually faded, and coking coal futures have continued to correct since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expectation of coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, there is some resistance to further decline in coking coal futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the coal mine production situation [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. High - end improvement projects in core cities drove up the price of new residential buildings, while the second - hand housing market faced downward pressure due to high listing volume and weak expectations [8]. - On December 2nd, the online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan market dropped. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1,430 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1,444 yuan/ton, and 40,000 tons were traded, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared with November 28th and a cumulative decrease of 158 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The FOB price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,450 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 10.49%, and a decrease of 13.69% compared with the same period [13]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%, and a decrease of 3.09% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%, and an increase of 1.18% compared with the same period [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke contract was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.45%. The highest price was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,606 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 14,257, a decrease of 11,760, and the open interest was 30,635, a decrease of 1,966 [14]. - The closing price of the active coking coal contract was 1,096.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86%. The highest price was 1,103.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,085 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 369,820, a decrease of 222,199, and the open interest was 397,617, a decrease of 25,719 [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Charts related to coke inventory include the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory [15][16][20]. - Charts related to coking coal inventory include the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants [21][24][31]. - Other charts include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current price situation, supply - demand relationship, and the key role of coal mine production in the future market trend [35][36].

消息面 据外媒报道，今年7月至9月，开发商在澳大利亚核心焦煤产区，昆士兰州的煤炭勘探项目上仅投入了5500万澳元(约合3600万美元)。这一数字同 比下降7.9%，标志着该地区勘探支出连续第五个季度出现下滑，主要归因于疲软的煤价以及高昂的特许权使用费(Royalties)。 根据美国矿山安全与健康管理局(MSHA)数据，第三季度粉河盆地(PRB)煤炭产量同比增长5.8%，达到略高于6000万短吨(约5400万公吨)的水平， 去年同期为5680万短吨。 机构观点 国投安信期货： 市场对下游补库有一定预期，日内价格小幅反弹。焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅增加，目前下游少量按需采购，库存变动不大， 贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情 绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，价格短期大概率维持反弹节奏。 中州期货： 焦炭开启首轮提降全面落地，幅度为50/55元/吨，后续仍有提降预期。需求端本期铁水继续下降，季节性下滑现象延续。焦煤方面，山西部分煤 矿停产，本期供应下滑，处季节性低位，总的来说，上游停产煤矿增多，但前期下游库存偏高，随着 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current pricing of steel is affected by weak steel demand and the expected contraction of coal supply. With the impact of the contraction in coking coal supply and restocking before the National Day, the downside space is expected to be limited, and the price will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3399 to 3367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased from 173 to 168 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 (0.3%) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 (0.8%), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 (6.0%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for multiple varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder decreased from 80.1 to 40.3 (- 49.7%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 (29.6%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3 (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 (0.6%) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 22 to 1657 (1.3%). The price of the coking coal 01 - contract decreased by 30 to 1204 (- 2.4%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 (5.1%). The output of raw coal in main producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, which boosted the night - session of black commodities. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July increased significantly. The iron water output is at a high level, and the coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategically, affected by the Fed's potential rate cuts, the market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering the undecided eighth - round price increase, potential price cuts, and the approaching military parade on September 3rd, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption hit a record high, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, and some Fed officials support rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron water output is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons. The coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 55 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering various factors, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend, and the main contract of coke should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29th, the coke futures contract position was 48,700 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1011 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coke was 162.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110.5 points. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 90 lots week - on - week, and the ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.02 points week - on - week [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 28th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. As of August 29th, the coke basis was - 142.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.5 points. In July, the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [25][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Coking Enterprises**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%. The daily coke output was 51,280 tons, a decrease of 1030 tons. The coke inventory was 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.1987 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.0 days, an increase of 0.18 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.1924 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of August 22nd, the total coke inventory was 8.5546 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.58% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The coke inventory in 18 ports was 2.6866 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The inventory in 247 steel mills was 6.1007 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons [40]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Chart - **Export**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 158,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 24th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6125 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 26.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.17%. The transaction area in first - tier cities was 402,800 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.97%. The transaction area in second - tier cities was 903,700 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 65.43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [47][52].