Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current pricing of steel is affected by weak steel demand and the expected contraction of coal supply. With the impact of the contraction in coking coal supply and restocking before the National Day, the downside space is expected to be limited, and the price will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3399 to 3367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased from 173 to 168 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), while the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7 (0.3%) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 (0.8%), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 (6.0%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 - contract for multiple varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder decreased from 80.1 to 40.3 (- 49.7%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 (29.6%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3 (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 (0.6%) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 22 to 1657 (1.3%). The price of the coking coal 01 - contract decreased by 30 to 1204 (- 2.4%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 (5.1%). The output of raw coal in main producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.4 to 241.0 (0.2%), and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are following the strength of coking coal, mainly trading on the expectations of coal industry production cuts and over - production checks. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Currently, pricing is affected by both weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Steel prices are supported by the high - level steel mill production from September to October, which boosts raw material demand, and the expected coal supply situation. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to recover upwards. The pressure level for rebar is around 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is around 3500 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly rebounded, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, mainly due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports, which is an expected data change. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined. After major events ended, the hot metal production increased significantly last week, and the steel mill restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but it is still insufficient in the peak season, and raw materials are stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill's equity iron ore inventory has increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, since the steel mill's profit margin is still relatively high, hot metal production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Strategically, iron ore is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range of 780 - 850, and it is advisable to buy the iron ore 2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the current and futures prices. The second round of price cuts by steel mills on coke spot has been implemented, and the port trade quotes have followed the decline. On the supply side, due to the previous 7 - round price increases in coke, the coking profit has increased. After 2 rounds of price cuts, coking still has profits, and northern coke enterprises have rapidly resumed production. On the demand side, steel mills have resumed production this week, hot metal production has increased significantly, and downstream demand is still supported. In terms of inventory, the coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, while the port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory has slightly increased at a medium level. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coke and coking coal in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. With the improvement of coking profit and the lifting of production restrictions, the coke production, supply, and logistics transportation have recovered. It is temporarily expected that there is room for 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Since the expected decline range is not large, the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the steel industry's policies to strictly prohibit new capacity and implement production cuts, as well as the market fluctuations of steel and whether the peak season expectations are fulfilled. It is recommended to buy the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between the current and futures prices. The spot auction prices are stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes have rebounded following the futures. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it will take time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main producing area coal mines have gradually resumed production as expected, logistics transportation has recovered, and coal mines have sold at reduced prices, resulting in a certain improvement in sales. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. On the demand side, hot metal production has increased significantly this week, and coking operations have also increased rapidly. The impact of environmental protection restrictions has been lifted. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills have reduced their inventories, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports have slightly increased their inventories, and the overall inventory has slightly decreased at a medium level. After 2 rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders have started to buy in advance, and the trading volume has improved slightly. The market generally expects a limited decline space, and the futures market has advanced the trading of the rebound expectation. There is restocking demand before the National Day. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3240 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3205 yuan/ton, 3045 yuan/ton, and 3136 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 16 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3410 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3374 yuan/ton, 3398 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 6 yuan/ton, 3 yuan/ton, and 6 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 3010 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3311 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coils is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils is 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils is 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The profit of East China rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of North China rebar is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.6 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 857.2 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or - 0.4% compared with the previous value. Rebar production is 211.9 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value, including a decrease of 3.6 tons or - 11.7% in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 3.1 tons or - 1.7% in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 325.1 tons, an increase of 10.9 tons or 3.5% compared with the previous value [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products is 1514.6 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value. Rebar inventory is 653.9 tons, an increase of 13.9 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 373.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or - 0.3% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume is 11.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 843.3 tons, an increase of 15.5 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 198.1 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.2 tons, an increase of 20.8 tons or 6.8% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 828.6 yuan/ton, 837.0 yuan/ton, 833.0 yuan/ton, and 847.8 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines has increased by 20.0 yuan/ton, 14.5 yuan/ton, 14.6 yuan/ton, and 15.7 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 39.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 906.0 yuan/ton, 789.0 yuan/ton, 811.0 yuan/ton, and 745.0 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, 5.0 yuan/ton, and 4.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.3 dollars/ton; the Platts 62% Fe price is 106.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons or - 3.5% compared with the previous value; the global shipment volume (weekly) is 3573.1 tons, an increase of 816.9 tons or 29.6% compared with the previous value; the national monthly import volume is 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons or - 1.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value; the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 337.3 tons, an increase of 13.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value; the national monthly pig iron production is 6979.0 tons, a decrease of 100.7 tons or - 1.4% compared with the previous value; the national monthly crude steel production is 7737.0 tons, a decrease of 228.8 tons or - 2.9% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13849.47 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8993.1 tons, an increase of 53.2 tons or 0.6% compared with the previous value; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days or - 4.8% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the warehouse - receipt price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1538 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coke 01 contract price is 1689 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke 05 contract price is 1828 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The J01 - J05 spread is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 1099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract price is 1188 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton; the 01 - contract basis is - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton [6]. - The coking coal 05 contract price is 1285 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton; the 05 - contract basis is - 186 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton. The JM01 - JM05 spread is - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Demand - **Coke Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.14% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coke Demand**: The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.8 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines is 867 tons, an increase of 43.8 tons or 5.4% compared with the previous value; the clean coal production is 442.5 tons, an increase of 23.3 tons or 5.6% compared with the previous value [6]. - **Coking Coal Demand**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants is 66.8 tons, an increase of 2.4 tons or 3.8% compared with the previous value; the daily average production of 247 steel mills is 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.7 tons or 5.1% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 906.2 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 67.8 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons or 2.0% compared with the previous value; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3 tons, an increase of 9.6 tons or 1.5% compared with the previous value; the port inventory is 205.1 tons, an

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and supply - side contraction expectations. Seasonal improvement in apparent demand is expected later, with a narrowing supply - demand gap and mild inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is unlikely to exceed the current production level. Currently, steel prices are supported by the strong raw material prices due to high steel mill production in September - October and supply - side expectations of coal. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day inventory replenishment, prices are expected to recover. The pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3350 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in different regions rose slightly or remained unchanged, and futures prices also increased. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also showed an upward trend [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of some steel production processes decreased, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profit of rebar in some regions improved [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2. Rebar production decreased by 3.1% to 211.9, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.5% to 325.1 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6, rebar inventory increased by 2.2% to 653.9, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% to 373.3 [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 1.0%, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 1.9% to 843.3, rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.0% to 198.1, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 6.8% to 326.2 [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The demand side saw a slight decline in steel mill profit margins, a significant increase in pig iron output last week after major events, and an increase in steel mill inventory replenishment demand. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, and the port clearance volume increased month - on - month. Looking forward, due to the still - high profitability of steel mills, pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The "anti - involution" work may lead to policies in the steel industry. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, with a bullish view on single - side fluctuations, and the recommended trading range is 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The basis of the 01 contract for some varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread changed significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the new exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5% to 2362.3, and the global weekly shipment volume increased by 29.6% to 3573.1. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.2% to 10462.3 [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 4.2% to 337.3, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.0, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7737.0 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the import ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 8993.1, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% to 20.0 [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures showed a strong rebound, with a divergence between the recent futures and spot prices. The second - round price cut by steel mills in the spot market was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the decline. The third - round price cut is considered difficult. On the supply side, coking enterprises in the north resumed production rapidly due to still - existing profits after two - round price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production this week, and the downstream demand was still supported. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills increased inventory slightly, while ports reduced inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. The futures market is more focused on the decline range of coking coal and coke in September and the driving force for bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties decreased, and the futures prices of coke increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed. The coking profit decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 1.2% to 906.2, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.0% to 67.8, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5% to 633.3, and the port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 75.44% to - 3.1 [6]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the previous day's close, the coking coal futures showed a strong rebound, with a certain divergence between futures and spot. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures rebound. On the supply side, domestic coking coal auctions have stabilized recently. After the price adjustment, the downstream purchasing willingness has recovered, but it still takes time for the price to bottom out and rebound. This week, the main - producing area coal mines resumed production as expected, and the logistics and transportation recovered. In terms of imports, the Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. On the demand side, the pig iron output increased significantly this week, and the coking operation rate increased synchronously. In terms of inventory, coal mines, coking plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coal washing plants, ports, and border ports increased inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly in the middle position. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips in the range of 1070 - 1300 and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market risks [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties decreased slightly, and the futures prices of coking coal increased. The basis and spreads of the 01 and 05 contracts changed [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of raw coal increased by 5.4% to 867, and the weekly output of clean coal increased by 5.6% to 442.5 [6]. - **Demand**: The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1% to 240.6, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8% to 66.8 [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 1.2% to 125.0, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.0% to 883.5, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.34% to 793.7, and the port inventory decreased by 1.6% to 271.1 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, which boosted the night - session of black commodities. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July increased significantly. The iron water output is at a high level, and the coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategically, affected by the Fed's potential rate cuts, the market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering the undecided eighth - round price increase, potential price cuts, and the approaching military parade on September 3rd, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption hit a record high, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, and some Fed officials support rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron water output is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons. The coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 55 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering various factors, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend, and the main contract of coke should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29th, the coke futures contract position was 48,700 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1011 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coke was 162.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110.5 points. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 90 lots week - on - week, and the ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.02 points week - on - week [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 28th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. As of August 29th, the coke basis was - 142.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.5 points. In July, the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [25][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Coking Enterprises**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%. The daily coke output was 51,280 tons, a decrease of 1030 tons. The coke inventory was 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.1987 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.0 days, an increase of 0.18 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.1924 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of August 22nd, the total coke inventory was 8.5546 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.58% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The coke inventory in 18 ports was 2.6866 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The inventory in 247 steel mills was 6.1007 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons [40]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Chart - **Export**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 158,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 24th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6125 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 26.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.17%. The transaction area in first - tier cities was 402,800 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.97%. The transaction area in second - tier cities was 903,700 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 65.43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [47][52].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coking coal and coke prices is experiencing upward fluctuations, with market expectations indicating that the fourth round of coke price reductions may commence soon [1] Group 1 - The night trading session saw both coking coal and coke futures prices oscillating upwards [1] - Market anticipations suggest that the initiation of the fourth round of coke price reductions could occur at this time [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The absolute price is hard to say the bottom has appeared, and the relative price of coke has a larger decline space. The follow - up still needs to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and emotional factors. Coke will be used as a short - position variety in the black market, with a volatile and weak trend. Focus on strategies such as narrowing coking profit and 91 positive spreads [2][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - The opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 last week was 935.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 939.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 877.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 877.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 44.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 1,276,899.0 lots and an open interest of 403,016.0 lots. - The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 last week was 1,538.0 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,552.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,444.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 86.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price, with a trading volume of 93,798.0 lots and an open interest of 50,769.0 lots [5] Basis Analysis - The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 169 yuan/ton. The port - converted warehouse - receipt price of coke was 1460 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coke 2509 contract was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 13 yuan/ton [5] Spread Analysis - The closing price of the main coke 2509 contract last week was 1,446.5 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main coking coal 2509 contract was 877.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 coke and 2509 coking coal was 569.0 yuan/ton [5] Domestic Spot - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1090 yuan/ton (- 30); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1047 yuan/ton (- 6); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 1008 yuan/ton (- 5) [6] Port Inventory and Quotations Port Inventory - As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 750.00 million tons; the total coal inventory at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons; the coal inventory at Jingtang Port was 0.00 million tons, and the inventory at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 45.10 million tons [12] Port Quotations - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of foreign - trade Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Lianyungang was 1305 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Rizhao Port was 1190 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Australian main coking coal at Tianjin Port was 1295 yuan/ton [12] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 640.35, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,353.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,709.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [14] Coking Industry Coke Price Index - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1210 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tangshan was 1410 yuan/ton (-); the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1320 yuan/ton (- 20) [17] Coke Inventory - This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [19] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with the lower support level at 850 - 950 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1200 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with the lower support level at 1300 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1600 yuan/ton [23] Operation Suggestions - Interval operation [26]