1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and they are on a long - term downward search [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Preface Summary The report is the "Double - Coking June Report 2025", released on June 27, 2025, with the core view that the supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose and they are on a long - term downward search [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Price - Multiple price charts of coking coal and coke are presented, including the coking coal price index, medium - sulfur primary coking coal price, Mongolian 5 coking coal price, coke price index, quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, etc., covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [12][16][18]. 3.2.2 Production - **Coal Production**: Charts show the national raw coal production, national coking fine coal production, Shanxi raw coal production, and Shanxi coking fine coal production from 2020 - 2025 [26][27][30]. - **Coke Production**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants are presented, as well as the daily production of independent coking enterprises and the total daily production of coke from 2021 - 2025. In 2025, the net new coking capacity is 1159000 tons. Also, the coking capacity in different provinces is detailed, divided by the height of the carbonization chamber [75][79][80]. 3.2.3 Cost The cost curve and cost proportion of coking coal mines are shown, with 16% of mines having a cost of less than 600 yuan/ton, 36% between 600 - 800 yuan/ton, 24% between 800 - 1000 yuan/ton, and 24% greater than 1000 yuan/ton [33][37]. 3.2.4 Import and Export - **Import of Coking Coal**: In May 2025, the total import of coking coal was 7.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.9%. Mongolia, Russia, and Canada saw decreases, while Australia had an increase. Cumulatively from January to May 2025, the total import was 43.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [44]. - **Export of Coke**: Charts show the total export volume of coke and the export volume to Indonesia, India, and Malaysia from 2021 - 2025 [69][71][74]. 3.2.5 Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (converted to fine coal) was 37.835 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 103300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 347100 tons. - **Coke Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total coke inventory was 9.927 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 131700 tons [88]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Demand Balance**: For coking coal in 2025E, the domestic production is expected to be 48.4 million tons, imports 11 million tons, total supply 59.4 million tons, total demand 59.201 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 200000 tons. For coke in 2025E, the domestic production is expected to be 41.35 million tons, imports 10000 tons, total supply 41.36 million tons, total demand 41.23 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 130000 tons [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "Oscillation". There are no specific ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Coking coal and coke present a situation where short - term improvement and long - term pressure coexist. The short - term marginal situation has improved due to inventory reduction and supply disruptions, but the medium - and long - term pattern of loose supply and demand remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1,379.0 yuan/ton, up 26.5 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.96%. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 7.6 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 0.95%. The futures prices showed a range - bound oscillation influenced by the marginal improvement in spot supply and demand [1][5]. Supply - This week, the total daily average output of steel mill coking and independent coking was 112.10 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate of the full sample of independent coking enterprises was 73.57%, a decrease of 0.39%; the daily average coke output was 64.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons. For the 247 steel mill samples, the daily average coke output was 47.39 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.39%, an increase of 0.27% [1][24][27]. Demand - According to Mysteel statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills reached 83.82%, an increase of 0.41% from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21% from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points from last week; the daily average pig iron output was 242.18 million tons, an increase of 0.57 million tons from last week [1][37]. Inventory - According to Mysteel research data, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 634.2 million tons this period, a decrease of 8.64 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full sample was 1,006.0 million tons, a decrease of 21.25 million tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7,747 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from last week; the total inventory of the full - caliber was 3,391.95 million tons, a decrease of 85.63 million tons from last week [2][38].