机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/孙丹阳 据公司公告，7 月10 日-11 日，公司累计回购6.05 万股公司股份，总交易金额176.2 万港元，成交均价 约29.12 港元。股份回购彰显管理层对于公司长期发展信心，亦有利于提升集团资本市场价值及股东回 报能力。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到公司25H1 生美基石业务内生增长强劲、亚健康医疗服务快增放量，我们上调公司25-27 年归母 净利润至3.20/3.69/4.20 亿元（25E-27E CAGR为22%，较前值分别+1.6%/+0.4%+/0.3%），对应EPS分别 为1.36/1.57/1.78元。可比公司25E 一致预测PE 均值17 倍，考虑公司为美容与保健品牌龙头，正积极优 化股东结构、落实回购以提升自身资本市场价值，同时积极探索外延并购机会，给予25 年25xPE，目标 价37.36HKD（汇率0.91；前值37.00 HKD，对应25 年25 倍PE）。 风险提示：会员向医美/抗衰转化降速；市场竞争加剧；医疗事故风险。 公司发布业绩预告，预计25H1 收入将不少于14.5 亿元/yoy27%，经调整净利润不少于1.75 亿 元/yoy33%，净利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 37.36 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of at least 1.45 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, and an adjusted net profit of at least 175 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33% [1][6]. - The company's business model, focusing on "Double Beauty + Double Health," is driving robust performance, with a 10% year-on-year increase in organic customer traffic for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The management's confidence in the company's long-term development is highlighted by a recent share buyback, which totaled 60,500 shares at an average price of approximately 29.12 HKD [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 320 million, 369 million, and 420 million RMB respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [4][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.36, 1.57, and 1.78 RMB respectively [4][10]. Revenue Structure - The board attributes the performance improvement to the continuous refinement of the "Double Beauty + Double Health" business model, which has led to an increase in the proportion of high-margin business revenue [2][10]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the beauty and health sector, actively optimizing shareholder structure and exploring acquisition opportunities to enhance market value [4][10].

经营稳步向上，提升奈瑞儿持股充实利润。2Q25 公司宣布拟进一步收购广州奈瑞儿20%股权，交易完 成后对该企业持股比例增至90%，体现公司持续完善"双美+双保健"商业模式、深耕大健康产业的决 心，预计将显著提升公司归母净利润及每股盈利能力。我们认为公司在美丽与健康管理领域拥有良好的 品牌力、渠道网络及客户基础，凭借双美协同的一站式美丽健康服务模式，突破行业高经营成本痛点。 高粘性客群、数字化中台助力单店提效，叠加高经营杠杆带来的利润弹性，以内生增长+外延并购协同 转化，有望进一步扩大领先优势，夯实龙头地位。 风险提示：客流低于预期、生美-医美导流不及预期、行业竞争恶化。 引入多方优质资金，国际化战投赋能公司视野。公司主要股东中信产业投资基金CPE 通过一系列相关 协议获完成相关交易，出售其所持有的约5133 万股本公司股份，交易对象包括外资长线医疗健康领域 基金、科技创新战略投资基金、国际领先的长线基金、国际优质对冲基金等，完成该系列交易后CPE 将不再作为公司主要股东。 坚定提升资本市场价值，稳健迈向港股通目标。公司于2025 年3 月推出资本市场价值提升计划，并通过 三大战略举措持续释放投资价值，已初见成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meili Tianyuan has established itself as a leading brand in the high-end beauty industry in China, evolving from a beauty service provider to a comprehensive health and beauty enterprise through a dual-driven strategy of "internal growth and external mergers" [1][5][11]. Group 1: Business Model and Growth Strategy - The company emphasizes enhancing the operational efficiency of existing stores rather than merely expanding the number of locations, with a nearly 60% increase in store count over two and a half years [3][4]. - Meili Tianyuan's revenue for 2024 reached RMB 2.572 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while net profit rose by 9.7% to RMB 252 million [11]. - The company has successfully integrated the second-largest beauty brand, Nairui, into its operations, further solidifying its market position [6][15]. Group 2: Customer Engagement and Digital Transformation - The company has established a private traffic pool to efficiently reach target customers, resulting in a 20.4% year-on-year increase in customer traffic to direct stores, totaling 1.52 million visits in 2024 [4][25]. - Meili Tianyuan has invested significantly in digital transformation, allocating 2.5% of its revenue annually to enhance its digital capabilities, which has improved service quality and internal management efficiency [27][30]. - The company has achieved a 34% increase in new members through digital marketing, with a reduction of 8.9% in the average customer acquisition cost for active members [4][25]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Over the past decade, Meili Tianyuan has completed over 30 mergers and acquisitions, developing a unique methodology for evaluating and integrating new brands [13][14]. - The company focuses on acquiring mature brands with established customer bases and operational synergies, enhancing its market presence and operational capabilities [19][20]. - Meili Tianyuan is currently in discussions with multiple brands for potential acquisitions, indicating a proactive approach to industry consolidation [35]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the medical beauty and sub-health markets, which are seen as significant areas for expansion [32][33]. - Meili Tianyuan aims to leverage its strong operational capabilities to further enhance its platform's uniqueness and provide support to other brands in the industry [32].