Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a warm and volatile trend, while the bond market sentiment is cautious. The main anti - involution theme in the stock index futures continues to develop, and option trading should focus on covered defense. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the current month are - 8.67, - 6.01, - 12.46, and - 20.11 respectively, with changes of - 8.46, - 3.84, - 8.38, and - 11.81 compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.6, 3.2, 57, and 68.8 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 0.4, 7.4, and 4.8. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by - 19160, - 14582, - 14672, and - 28320 hands respectively [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after rising on Monday, standing firm at 3500 points with trading volume shrinking to 1.5 trillion yuan. The large - and small - cap stocks showed differentiation. The banking sector had a momentum effect, and there is a possibility of a tail risk of crowding in the banking sector. The main anti - involution theme continues to develop, and the anti - involution trading is expected to last until the Politburo meeting in July. During the release of the semi - annual report forecasts, the profit of the cyclical chain industries has improved, and the industries with a large upward adjustment of the ROE consensus expectation in June generally have excess returns. A - shares are insensitive to overseas tariffs. It is recommended to allocate IM long positions [1][5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased significantly compared to the liquidity high on Friday. The weighted implied volatility decreased by 1.05%, and the sentiment indicator (PCR of open interest) decreased by 1.29% on average. During the period of continued market volatility, it is recommended to focus on covered defense [2][5] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter have different changes. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis points also have corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [6] - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of treasury bonds mostly increased. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by the approaching tax period, and the inter - bank funding rate mostly increased. The better - than - expected credit and import - export data in June also had a negative impact on the bond market. The improvement in risk appetite and better - than - expected economic data are negative for the long - end of the bond market, while the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous purchase of short - term bonds are positive for the short - end. It is appropriate to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][6][7] Economic Calendar - On July 14, 2025, China's export amount in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan, both better than expected. On July 15, the data of China's industrial added value in June and the US CPI in June are yet to be released [8] Important Information and News Tracking - Financial data: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale in the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Exports: In June, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars. In the first half of the year, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.9%. The trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [9] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that the daily order volume (excluding self - pick - up and free purchases) exceeded 80 million [9] - The Fed's Harker said that the inflation target has not been reached, and it is still very important to maintain a tight monetary policy. There is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and there is uncertainty about the economic situation later this year [9]