1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has increased. The stock index futures are expected to rise moderately, the stock index options show more upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment, and the risk preference improvement suppresses the performance of the bond market [1]. - For stock index futures, the market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector has been falling recently, and the possibility of a shift to the scenario of "funds flowing into sectors with improved or reversed prosperity" is more likely. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume decreased but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. - For treasury bond futures, they closed down across the board yesterday. The weak performance of the bond market may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is necessary to be cautious about the bond market, especially the long - end bonds, and appropriate attention can be paid to long - end short - hedging operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Moderate upward movement. The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM contracts changed, and the spread between current and next - month contracts also changed. The total positions of IF and IH decreased, while those of IC and IM increased. The market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector's decline may be due to the shift of funds. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - **View**: Higher upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment. The trading volume decreased by 14.72% to 53.98 billion yuan but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Risk preference improvement suppresses the bond market performance. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, TL contracts changed. The long - end TL performance was relatively weak. The bond market closed down across the board, and the 10Y and 30Y bond yields increased. The weak performance may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is recommended to be cautious about the trend, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis, basis widening, and curve steepening [3][8][10]. (2) Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively. China's June全社会 electricity consumption annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [11]. (3) Important Information and News Tracking - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged. The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". Shangwei New Materials had 9 consecutive daily limit up, rising more than 410% [11]. (4) Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [12]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [28].

Market Analysis - US PPI showed a mild slowdown, with the June PPI unchanged month - on - month and up 2.3% year - on - year, and the core PPI also unchanged month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year, the smallest increase since late 2023 [1] - In China, the State Council Premier chaired a meeting to discuss policies for strengthening the domestic market, reported on the regulation of the new energy vehicle industry competition order, and the initial rectification of audit - found problems in the 2024 central budget execution [1] - A - share market: The three major A - share indices fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. The social services, automobile, pharmaceutical and biological, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the steel, banking, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.4 trillion yuan [1] - US stock market: Trump's remarks on Fed Chairman Powell did not lead to immediate action. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.53% to 44254.78 points [1] - Futures market: As the current - month futures contracts are to be delivered tomorrow, the basis is converging. Both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [1] Strategy - US PPI data was temporarily stable. Trump's attitude towards Powell initially worried the market, but the three major US stock indices rebounded after an initial decline [2] - The trading activity in the domestic market declined compared to the previous period. Sector rotation accelerated, high - priced stocks entered an adjustment phase, and the market shifted to a sentiment - driven trading mode. The main stock indices showed a divergent trend, and the banking sector's decline led to relatively weak performance of large - cap stock indices in the short term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [5][7][9] 2. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 16, 2025. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3503.78, down 0.03% from the previous day [12] - Charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [12] 3. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. For example, the trading volume of IF was 100264, a decrease of 24033, and the open interest was 255864, a decrease of 11467 [17] - Charts show the open interest, open - interest ratio, and net positions of foreign investors in different stock index futures contracts, as well as the basis and inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [18][25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a warm and volatile trend, while the bond market sentiment is cautious. The main anti - involution theme in the stock index futures continues to develop, and option trading should focus on covered defense. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the current month are - 8.67, - 6.01, - 12.46, and - 20.11 respectively, with changes of - 8.46, - 3.84, - 8.38, and - 11.81 compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.6, 3.2, 57, and 68.8 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 0.4, 7.4, and 4.8. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by - 19160, - 14582, - 14672, and - 28320 hands respectively [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated after rising on Monday, standing firm at 3500 points with trading volume shrinking to 1.5 trillion yuan. The large - and small - cap stocks showed differentiation. The banking sector had a momentum effect, and there is a possibility of a tail risk of crowding in the banking sector. The main anti - involution theme continues to develop, and the anti - involution trading is expected to last until the Politburo meeting in July. During the release of the semi - annual report forecasts, the profit of the cyclical chain industries has improved, and the industries with a large upward adjustment of the ROE consensus expectation in June generally have excess returns. A - shares are insensitive to overseas tariffs. It is recommended to allocate IM long positions [1][5] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased significantly compared to the liquidity high on Friday. The weighted implied volatility decreased by 1.05%, and the sentiment indicator (PCR of open interest) decreased by 1.29% on average. During the period of continued market volatility, it is recommended to focus on covered defense [2][5] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter have different changes. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis points also have corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [6] - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of treasury bonds mostly increased. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by the approaching tax period, and the inter - bank funding rate mostly increased. The better - than - expected credit and import - export data in June also had a negative impact on the bond market. The improvement in risk appetite and better - than - expected economic data are negative for the long - end of the bond market, while the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous purchase of short - term bonds are positive for the short - end. It is appropriate to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][6][7] Economic Calendar - On July 14, 2025, China's export amount in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan, both better than expected. On July 15, the data of China's industrial added value in June and the US CPI in June are yet to be released [8] Important Information and News Tracking - Financial data: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale in the first half of the year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Exports: In June, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars. In the first half of the year, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.9%. The trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [9] - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that the daily order volume (excluding self - pick - up and free purchases) exceeded 80 million [9] - The Fed's Harker said that the inflation target has not been reached, and it is still very important to maintain a tight monetary policy. There is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and there is uncertainty about the economic situation later this year [9]