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华创证券:反内卷牛或成为行情上行新动力
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-09-12 08:04
Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull market" is a crucial opportunity for the transition between the two halves of the bull market, driven by financial re-inflation in the first half and physical re-inflation in the second half, with expectations of inflation returning [1][6] - Local governments have improved fiscal conditions, allowing central authorities to execute policies more decisively, as evidenced by a 28% year-on-year increase in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies from January to August [2][11] - The strategy involves clearing supply before stimulating demand, with infrastructure, consumption, and manufacturing sectors expected to have growth opportunities in the coming year [3][15] Group 2 - Recent changes show a strengthening of policy determination from top to bottom, with increased cooperation from enterprises, as concerns about the "anti-involution" policy have been alleviated over the past two months [4][26] - The shift from industry association-led self-regulation to accelerated intervention by ministries indicates a growing commitment to the "anti-involution" initiative, with specific policies being deployed at both central and local levels [5][27] - Enterprises are increasingly willing to cooperate with the "anti-involution" initiative, as seen in the photovoltaic industry where major companies are adopting production reduction strategies [28][29] Group 3 - Industry allocation should focus on the expected price increases of cyclical resource products, with attention to sectors such as glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment [5][32] - Industries with relatively tight supply include industrial metals, steel, petrochemicals, and consumer goods like textiles and light industry, indicating potential benefits from the "anti-involution" policies [33][34]