Core Insights - The overall recovery of actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the last bull market peak. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, targeting around 3800 points [9][32][40] - Among the 3 trillion new funds, the thematic funds have a scale of 500 billion, with consumption funds at 40%, manufacturing funds at 31%, and pharmaceutical funds at 19%. The new funds have faced greater pressure, with an overall recovery to an average of 94% of the initial net value, while the pharmaceutical funds have returned to positive, consumption funds at 82%, and manufacturing funds at 88% [9][46] - The asset allocation of Chinese residents is primarily concentrated in housing and stocks, with the adjustments in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years being the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets is crucial for improving residents' income [9][10][22] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and the enhancement of property income. The current recovery of the 3 trillion new funds reflects the significant impact of this bull market on the repair of residents' balance sheets [10][23] Fund Performance Analysis - The performance of old funds has been significantly lower than that of new funds, with old funds showing an average net value return of -12%, while new funds have achieved an average return of 2%. The disparity in returns is primarily due to the higher base of net value calculations for old funds [38][40] - As of August 6, 2025, the overall average return of new and old funds has improved by 25 percentage points since the low in January 2024, with old funds recovering by 20 percentage points and new funds by 29 percentage points [40][41] - The analysis of thematic funds indicates that the performance of new funds in thematic sectors has been under pressure, with the average net value return for thematic funds in old funds at -17% and for new funds at -6% [46][51] Market Dynamics - The stock market's role as a vehicle for excess savings is emphasized, with the potential for an influx of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market if it returns to the average ratio of the past five years [10][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, which has been a focus since September 2024, aiming to restore residents' balance sheets and enhance property income [10][22] - The recovery of residents' financial confidence is evident, with personal housing loan balances showing a positive trend after a period of decline, indicating a shift back to an expansion state for residents' balance sheets [22][23]

策略研究 【策略专题】 居民资产负债表修复行至何处 ——资产负债表修复系列 5 策略专题 2025 年 08 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】四类基金画像：加仓、减仓、调仓、 极致风格——25Q2 基金季报专题研究》 2025-07-30 《【华创策略联合行业】PCB：AI 算力的基石— —牛市产业主线系列 1》 2025-07-30 《【华创策略】"十五五"重点产业前瞻——"十 五五"系列 1》 2025-07-14 《【华创证券红利资产研究中心】基于宏观周期 的红利轮动模型——多行业联合红利资产 6 月 报》 2025-07-02 《【华创策略×银行】如何看待银行股持续新高 ——再通胀牛市系列 6》 2025-06-29 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 上一轮牛市高点至今，存量主动权益公募基金整体已修复至 95%。为研究上 一轮公募基金热潮（2019- ...

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown strong performance due to continuous inflow of incremental funds, with the banking index rising by 41.2% since Q2 2023, significantly outperforming the overall market which only increased by 3.9% [13][9][11] - The "national team" liquidity support has been a key factor, with an estimated net inflow of 1,043.5 billion yuan into banking stocks from ETFs since 2024, representing 3.2% of the current free float market value of banks [13][9][11] - Long-term capital from insurance funds continues to flow into the banking sector, which is characterized by large market capitalization, stable earnings, and high dividend yields, making it attractive to investors [13][9][11] Group 2 - The financial industry's value added as a percentage of GDP has been steadily increasing, reaching 7.29% in Q1 2025 [11][29] - The net profit growth of banks has been more stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in 2024 compared to a decline of 14.5% for non-financial A-shares, and banks accounted for 40.6% of total A-share net profits [11][29] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks reached a historical high of 11.0% in Q4 2024, indicating robust solvency [11][29] Group 3 - The banking sector's profitability remains resilient, with the net interest margin showing relative stability during the interest rate decline cycle, decreasing from 1.74% to 1.43% [11][30] - The dividend yield for banks remains high at 5.4% as of June 20, 2025, while other dividend-paying sectors have seen declines in their yields [11][30] - The overall credit cost for banks is expected to remain stable, with the net generation rate of non-performing loans anticipated to fluctuate at low levels [12][30] Group 4 - The outlook for banking operations indicates reduced pressure on core revenue growth, with credit costs expected to stabilize [12][30] - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain above 9%, with a theoretical bottom line ROE of 8.5% [12][30] - The banking sector is expected to continue to outperform private enterprises as creditors in a low-price environment, benefiting from the relative strength of their balance sheets [10][29]

Group 1 - The report maintains a long-term optimistic view on the re-inflation bull market, indicating that the transition from financial re-inflation to physical re-inflation is underway, with a focus on the recovery of price levels [2][36][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in the short term (1-2 months) while waiting for policy adjustments and market conditions to stabilize, particularly in the context of fiscal and monetary policy [6][10][11] - The report highlights the need to monitor domestic demand and price levels, noting that current CPI and PPI figures indicate a need for price recovery, with M1 growth showing signs of stabilization [18][19][28] Group 2 - The report identifies specific sectors for investment based on dividend stability, recommending banks, ports, highways, white goods, industrial metals, liquor, and telecom operators as key areas of focus [8][39] - The report suggests a focus on small-cap technology growth, particularly in AI and TMT sectors, supported by policy backing and remaining liquidity [3][8] - The report discusses the performance of various industries, noting that low-volatility dividend assets have significantly outperformed quality and cyclical dividends, with banks showing stable profitability and cash flow [39][41]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the micro-cap stocks are benefiting from liquidity expansion, with the current market environment favoring small-cap growth stocks due to a lack of a clear trend in the market and ongoing inflation concerns [2][3][15] - The micro-cap stock index has shown a strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 30% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market [3][11][19] - The report highlights that the shareholder structure of micro-cap stocks is predominantly composed of individual investors, which positions them to benefit from the release of excess household savings into the stock market [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report identifies that the micro-cap sector is primarily driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, as earnings growth is not a major pricing factor in the current environment [4][45][53] - The micro-cap industry covers sectors such as manufacturing and technology, including themes like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industrial policy support [5][63][64] - The trading mechanisms in the micro-cap space, such as higher price limits on exchanges like the Beijing Stock Exchange and ChiNext, provide greater elasticity compared to the main board, enhancing the attractiveness of micro-cap stocks [57][58]