Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy trend include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] - The rise of ferroalloys today is mainly due to the impact of coking coal, but the weak downstream demand pattern remains unchanged. There are still expectations for policy stimulus, so ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.4%. For silicomanganese, it is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio when SF is at 6200 - 6250 and SM is at 6400 - 6500 to prevent inventory depreciation [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when SF is at 5200 - 5300 and SM is at 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Ferroalloy production remains at a high level, but downstream demand shows no obvious improvement, with inventory accumulation in five major steel products. Silicomanganese is relatively stronger than ferrosilicon recently [4] - Cost support challenge: Although the prices of blue charcoal, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the continuous decline of coking coal prices challenges the effectiveness of cost support [4] - Contradiction between expectation and reality: There is an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action leads to a high risk of price rising and then falling [4] 利多解读 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to maintain a stable and positive operation of the machinery industry from 2025 to 2026 [6] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Association issued an initiative to strengthen self - discipline and fair competition in the household appliance industry, aiming to eliminate disorderly low - price competition [6] 利空解读 - US President Trump announced that the US will impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese - imported goods starting from November 1st [7] - The inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, with a 160,000 - ton inventory this week, a week - on - week increase of 8.7%. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.1%, and silicomanganese enterprise inventory is 242,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7% [7] Daily Data - Ferrosilicon daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [8] - Silicomanganese daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from October 9th to October 16th [9] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and coking coal [10][11] - There are seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [13][22]

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]