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棕榈油:产地驱动不明,关注棕油下方支撑,豆油:南美产情偏好,关注中美经贸关系
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:57
Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 - Report Focus: Palm oil and soybean oil market analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For palm oil, the drivers from the production areas are unclear, and attention should be paid to the lower support level of palm oil [1] - For soybean oil, the production situation in South America is favorable, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade relations between China and the United States [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%, and (night session) is 9,270 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. Trading volume is 553,539 lots with an increase of 92,105 lots, and open interest is 333,677 lots with a decrease of 10,566 lots [3] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and (night session) is 8,252 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.51%. Trading volume is 249,004 lots with a decrease of 8,688 lots, and open interest is 506,908 lots with an increase of 7,832 lots [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,864 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and (night session) is 9,840 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. Trading volume is 191,938 lots with an increase of 40,415 lots, and open interest is 269,555 lots with a decrease of 9,161 lots [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 4,508 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and (night session) is 4,495 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.22% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 50.62 cents/pound with a decline of 1.34% [3] Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,680 yuan/ton with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,090 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price is 1,110 US dollars/ton with no change [3] Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is - 94 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 386 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 226 yuan/ton [3] Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 570 yuan/ton, compared with 600 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is - 1,000 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,020 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 12 yuan/ton, compared with 22 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 180 yuan/ton, compared with 196 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 358 yuan/ton, compared with 370 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data [4] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20, 2025, were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec [5] - The European Commission proposed to further relax the EU's anti - deforestation law, and the Malaysian Palm Oil Council stated that the crude palm oil price will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton in 2026 [7] - Brazil's ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7.34 million tons, higher than last week's forecast [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]
棕榈油:原油及宏观情绪影响,低吸反弹,豆油:豆系驱动偏弱,区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Palm oil is affected by crude oil and macro - sentiment, with a strategy of low - buying for rebound [1] - Soybean oil has weak drivers in the soybean system and will trade in a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volume/Position Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 1.41%, night - session down 0.46%; trading volume is 721,694 hands (up 125,680), open interest is 475,283 hands (up 55,027) [1] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.16%, night - session down 0.41%; trading volume is 438,716 hands (up 161,139), open interest is 591,439 hands (up 2,004) [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.26%, night - session down 0.12%; trading volume is 500,517 hands (up 145,502), open interest is 327,483 hands (down 2,907) [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is up 0.80%, night - session down 0.74% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is down 1.10% [1] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; basis is 510 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 336 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB: Spot price is 975 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 1,237 yuan/ton (previous 1,327 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 466 yuan/ton (previous - 364 yuan/ton) [1] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 16 yuan/ton) [1] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 30 yuan/ton (previous 18 yuan/ton) [1] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 167 yuan/ton (previous 169 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for airport ground vehicles from B10 to B20 [2] - The EU's anti - deforestation law will impose new restrictions on imports. Four countries are classified as "high - risk", and major forest countries like Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia are "standard - risk". 9% of exports from high - risk countries and 3% from standard - risk countries need compliance checks [3] - As of May 25, Canadian canola exports decreased 10.36% to 16.01 tons week - on - week. From August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025, exports increased 59.29% year - on - year to 834.87 tons, and the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [4]