Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The domestic oil and fat futures market continued its strong trend, with all three major oil and fat contracts rising. The expected release of final regulations by the US EPA and concerns about a potential US military attack on Iran boosted the market. It is recommended to approach oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting further upward movement in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The table shows the trading data of various oil and fat futures contracts, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. Additionally, it provides price quotes from traders in different regions [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Approach oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting further upward movement in the short term [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with FFB yield down 15.28% and OER up 0.11%. From January 1 - 20, 2026, production decreased by 14.43% month - on - month, with different declines in different regions [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: In January 2026, Brazilian soybean exports are estimated to be 3.23 million tons, an 188% increase from the same period last year. The expected export volume for 2026 is a record 112 million tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes various charts showing the spot prices and basis changes of different oils and fats, as well as price spreads and exchange rates, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][17] 3.4 Other Information - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday due to high inflation but strong economic growth. Two Fed governors opposed a 25 - basis - point rate cut. US President Trump supported legislation to expand E15 ethanol gasoline sales [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic soybean oil prices in China are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, supported by international market dynamics and domestic supply-demand factors [1][6] - In 2025, the average price of domestic first-grade soybean oil is projected to be 8,314 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.23% compared to 2024, while the average price of CBOT soybean oil is expected to rise by 11.39% to 49.27 cents per pound [1][6] - The correlation coefficient between CBOT soybean oil prices and China's first-grade soybean oil prices over the past five years is 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation [1] Group 2 - In 2025, a significant price disparity exists between northern and southern regions of China, with southern prices generally higher due to stronger demand and economic conditions [3][4] - The price gap between southern and northern soybean oil markets narrowed in 2025, primarily due to high palm oil prices affecting demand dynamics [4] - The domestic soybean crushing capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2026, with high import levels of soybeans providing a solid raw material foundation for soybean oil production [6]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic oil and fat futures market continued its strong trend, with all three major oil and fat contracts rising. The expected EPA regulations enhanced the certainty of biodiesel demand, injecting optimism into the global vegetable oil market. Soybean oil futures were boosted by the policy expectations of US soybean oil. Palm oil prices were supported by supply concerns and Indian demand. Rapeseed oil followed the sector's rise, with short - term supply tightness providing price support. It is recommended to view oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting short - term upward potential [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: East China rapeseed oil traders quoted 05 + 950 for non - GMO first - grade rapeseed oil in March. Guangdong rapeseed oil traders quoted 05 + 280 for May - July. East China market first - grade soybean oil basis prices varied by period. East China 24 - degree palm oil prices also had different quotes for different months [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting short - term upward potential. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal ship purchases [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased from January 1 - 25, with a 14.81% month - on - month decline according to SPPOMA, including a 15.28% decline in FFB yield and a 0.11% increase in OER. From January 1 - 20, MPOA reported a 14.43% month - on - month decline in production, with different declines in different regions [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and East China fourth - grade soybean oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the spreads of palm oil contracts, and exchange rates of USD to RMB and USD to Ringgit [14][17][23]

Group 1: Soybean and Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell to a 10-month low due to ample supply, with the USDA raising US soybean inventory and Brazilian export estimates [2][8] - Private exporters sold 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico, while Brazil expects to export 3.73 million tons in January, up from a previous estimate of 2.4 million tons [2][8] - Domestic protein meal prices are fluctuating, with all 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans auctioned off at a premium of 0-190 yuan/ton, indicating market concerns about supply in March-April [2][8] Group 2: Oil and Fats - BMD palm oil prices declined due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy, although strong competition from other vegetable oils limited the drop [9] - US soybean oil prices increased amid expectations of improved biodiesel demand, while canola prices rose in anticipation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [9] - Domestic oil prices are generally rising, with palm oil leading the increase, while canola prices are under pressure due to potential policy changes [9] Group 3: Live Pig Market - Live pig futures for the 2603 contract experienced fluctuations, closing up 0.51% at 11,795 yuan/ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.76 yuan/kg, a slight increase from the previous day [4] - The slow pace of livestock sales and reduced supply support the rebound in live pig prices, despite short-term supply being relatively sufficient [4] Group 4: Egg Market - Egg futures for the 2603 contract saw a decline of 0.99%, closing at 2,990 yuan/500 kg, while the national average egg price was 3.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase [10] - The market is experiencing strong demand for pre-holiday stocking, but the ample supply limits the potential for significant price increases [10] Group 5: Corn Market - Corn futures for the 2603 contract initially fell before rising, with prices approaching the 2,300 yuan mark, driven by bullish sentiment [11] - The spot corn market is supported by pre-holiday stocking, although the overall trading activity remains moderate due to ample supply from auctions and imports [11]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, and long positions in the far - month contracts can continue to be held. Soybean oil has effective support at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and short - term long positions can be entered. Palm oil is the weakest, and long - term investors should wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound, while short - term rebound space is limited [1][3]. - In the protein market, after the main contract shift, the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a strong trend. Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts can be held, but large increases are not expected due to sufficient supply [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 28, due to floods in Southeast Asia, the Malaysian palm oil price rose, driving the overall strength of the vegetable oil sector. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract Y2601 was 8244 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.24% and a daily decrease of 10124 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract Y2605 was 8040 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.47% and a daily increase of 11685 lots in positions. The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2601 was 8626 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.15% and a daily decrease of 33791 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract P2605 was 8678 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.02% and a daily decrease of 813 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 was 9757 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.15% and a daily decrease of 5986 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract OI2605 was 9501 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.04% and a daily increase of 5853 lots in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 26, international oil prices rebounded from a one - month low. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose 0.70 US dollars or 1.21%, settling at 58.65 US dollars per barrel [1]. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut import subsidies for biofuels by one to two years. The original plan was to take effect on January 1, 2026 [1]. - Flood warnings in Southeast Asia have made the market nervous as floods may disrupt palm oil harvesting and transportation [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 3.34% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.41% month - on - month [1]. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the same period in October [1]. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, and the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years [1]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, a weekly increase of 23,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.40% [1]. - Research institution CGS International Research said that the vegetable oil market is supported by increased demand, which will lead to a further increase in the price of crude palm oil. It is also expected that the global biodiesel demand will grow strongly in 2026, providing structural support for global vegetable oil prices [3]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the US soybean market is expected to strengthen after adjustment, driving the recovery of US soybean oil. In the Malaysian market, floods and the fulfillment of previous negative factors have led to a significant increase. In the domestic market, although the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient and the inventory is good, the continuous loss of import and crushing profits of domestic oil mills has led to their willingness to support prices. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted [3]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: For palm oil, short - term long positions can be taken during the rebound, and long - term short - selling opportunities can be waited for after the rebound. For soybean oil, a trading strategy based on the oscillation range is recommended, with long positions entered at the lower edge of the range. For rapeseed oil, a bullish view is taken, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be continued to hold. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [3]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present. 3.2 Protein Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On November 28, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. After the main contract shift of domestic soybean meal, the near - month contract rose significantly without pressure, driving the overall protein sector to rise. The closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2601 was 3044 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.36% and a daily decrease of 48625 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract M2605 was 2845 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.25% and a daily increase of 46714 lots in positions. The closing price of the rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 was 2452 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.69% and a daily decrease of 18576 lots in positions. The closing price of the second - main contract RM2605 was 2415 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0.04% and a daily increase of 18772 lots in positions [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [3]. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies [4]. - As of November 13, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71%, higher than 61% a week ago but lower than 80% in the same period last year [4]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [4]. - In the first three weeks of November, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than that of the same period last year [4]. - There are rumors that there are problems with the import procedures of Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. In addition, the Russian government has decided to cancel the railway transportation price reduction coefficient for food from 2026 [4]. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week [4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - In the external market, the adjusted US soybean has attracted buyers, and the price has rebounded. In the domestic market, the overall supply - demand situation is stable, and feed enterprises maintain rigid demand replenishment. The rapeseed meal price has broken through the 2450 - yuan pressure level. Whether the price can further rise depends on the performance of the US soybean market after the resumption of trading [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading: Long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be continued to hold, and specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4][5]. - For arbitrage trading: No arbitrage strategies are recommended at present.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The negative news from the overseas producing areas has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for more information, especially the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US. [31] - Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to stop increasing and decline, and with cost support, soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline. The narrowing price difference between palm oil and soybean oil improves the cost - effectiveness of palm oil. [31] - The pessimistic sentiment in the edible oil market has priced in short - term negatives, but the core contradictions remain. The high - yield of palm oil is not sustainable, and the expansion of biodiesel demand is a definite trend. Soybean oil has solid cost support, and the domestic inventory pressure can be adjusted through the import rhythm. Although rapeseed oil has high policy risks, the de - stocking trend remains under the background of global rapeseed production reduction. The edible oil sector is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.69% to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 1.19% to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.18% to close at 9,533 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: In October, due to more working days and better weather, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase 6% month - on - month to 1.95 million tons, with a significantly higher increase than the historical average. The estimated export volume is 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. Despite increased domestic consumption, the palm oil inventory is expected to accumulate to over 2.4 million tons at the end of October. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.26%. [7][30] - **Soybean oil**: China's soybean imports in October reached a record high for the month, at 9.48 million tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million tons in the same period last year. From May to October this year, China's soybean imports repeatedly hit new highs. In the first 10 months, China's soybean imports increased 6.4% year - on - year to 95.68 million tons. However, imports in October decreased 26.3% compared to September, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern. US soybeans rose 0.20% this week. [7][31] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [12] 3.4 Other Data - As of October 31, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 1.462 million tons. On November 5, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 19,000 tons to 620,000 tons. [16] - As of November 6, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7,956,210 tons. [19] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 172 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [20] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 192 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 286 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [23] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is basically the same as the core view of the report, emphasizing the price trends of palm oil and soybean oil this week, and the future market outlook for the edible oil sector. [30][31]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 - Report Focus: Palm oil and soybean oil market analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For palm oil, the drivers from the production areas are unclear, and attention should be paid to the lower support level of palm oil [1] - For soybean oil, the production situation in South America is favorable, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade relations between China and the United States [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%, and (night session) is 9,270 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. Trading volume is 553,539 lots with an increase of 92,105 lots, and open interest is 333,677 lots with a decrease of 10,566 lots [3] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,294 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and (night session) is 8,252 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.51%. Trading volume is 249,004 lots with a decrease of 8,688 lots, and open interest is 506,908 lots with an increase of 7,832 lots [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,864 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and (night session) is 9,840 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. Trading volume is 191,938 lots with an increase of 40,415 lots, and open interest is 269,555 lots with a decrease of 9,161 lots [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 4,508 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and (night session) is 4,495 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.22% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 50.62 cents/pound with a decline of 1.34% [3] Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price is 9,200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,680 yuan/ton with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,090 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price is 1,110 US dollars/ton with no change [3] Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is - 94 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 386 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 226 yuan/ton [3] Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 570 yuan/ton, compared with 600 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is - 1,000 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,020 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 12 yuan/ton, compared with 22 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 180 yuan/ton, compared with 196 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread on the previous trading day is 358 yuan/ton, compared with 370 yuan/ton two trading days ago [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data [4] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20, 2025, were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec [5] - The European Commission proposed to further relax the EU's anti - deforestation law, and the Malaysian Palm Oil Council stated that the crude palm oil price will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton in 2026 [7] - Brazil's ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7.34 million tons, higher than last week's forecast [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is mainly driven by macro factors and is undergoing a correction; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and is also in a correction phase [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was up 0.57%, and night - session down 1.06%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.07%, and night - session fell 1.99%; rapeseed oil's day - session rose 0.47%, and night - session fell 1.32%. The Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.07% in the day - session and 1.00% in the night - session, and CBOT soybean oil futures fell 2.78% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 145,401 hands, and open interest by 25,027 hands; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 63,139 hands, and open interest by 35,479 hands; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 15,682 hands, and open interest by 3,935 hands [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 140 yuan/ton, while the spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong being 122 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures changing from 242 to 210 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to stay above 4,300 ringgit due to biodiesel demand, tight soybean oil supply, and slow palm oil supply growth [2] - As of August 17, EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 1.74 million tons (compared to 1.86 million tons last year), rapeseed imports were 0.33 million tons (compared to 0.57 million tons last year), and palm oil imports were 0.29 million tons (compared to 0.5 million tons last year) [4] - Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August are 8.9 million tons (previously 8.8 million tons), soybean meal exports are 2.33 million tons (previously 2.27 million tons), and corn exports are 8.05 million tons (previously 7.97 million tons) [4] - ProFarmer's crop survey estimates that in 2025, Ohio's corn yield will be 185.69 bushels per acre (compared to 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024), South Dakota's corn yield will be 174.18 bushels per acre (compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024), Ohio's average soybean pod number will be 1,287.28 (compared to 1,229.93 in 2024), and South Dakota's average soybean pod number will be 1,188.45 (compared to 1,025.89 in 2024) [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].