1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is mainly driven by macro factors and is undergoing a correction; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and is also in a correction phase [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was up 0.57%, and night - session down 1.06%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.07%, and night - session fell 1.99%; rapeseed oil's day - session rose 0.47%, and night - session fell 1.32%. The Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.07% in the day - session and 1.00% in the night - session, and CBOT soybean oil futures fell 2.78% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 145,401 hands, and open interest by 25,027 hands; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 63,139 hands, and open interest by 35,479 hands; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 15,682 hands, and open interest by 3,935 hands [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 140 yuan/ton, while the spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong being 122 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures changing from 242 to 210 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to stay above 4,300 ringgit due to biodiesel demand, tight soybean oil supply, and slow palm oil supply growth [2] - As of August 17, EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 1.74 million tons (compared to 1.86 million tons last year), rapeseed imports were 0.33 million tons (compared to 0.57 million tons last year), and palm oil imports were 0.29 million tons (compared to 0.5 million tons last year) [4] - Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August are 8.9 million tons (previously 8.8 million tons), soybean meal exports are 2.33 million tons (previously 2.27 million tons), and corn exports are 8.05 million tons (previously 7.97 million tons) [4] - ProFarmer's crop survey estimates that in 2025, Ohio's corn yield will be 185.69 bushels per acre (compared to 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024), South Dakota's corn yield will be 174.18 bushels per acre (compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024), Ohio's average soybean pod number will be 1,287.28 (compared to 1,229.93 in 2024), and South Dakota's average soybean pod number will be 1,188.45 (compared to 1,025.89 in 2024) [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is that several key agricultural commodities in the futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are showing a tendency of being "oscillating strongly" in the short - term or intraday, with different fundamental driving factors for each [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "strong", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly". The reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Positive expectations for US soybean exports boost the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. The "ambiguous deadline" of the China - US trade agreement extends the South American supply window, and the traditional US soybean export peak season faces pressure from Brazilian soybean discounts. Domestic supply pressure is concentrated in the near - term, and forward purchases are low. In the short - term, supply expectations dominate the market again, with futures stronger than spot, and the internal - strong - external - weak pattern continues, keeping the futures price in an oscillating and strong pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: The intraday view is "oscillating strongly", the mid - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in export taxes may lead to a decline in palm oil exports, weakening the fundamental support of Malaysian palm oil. However, positive expectations for Indonesian biodiesel demand support palm oil prices. Driven by the energy attribute of palm oil, a small amount of capital flowing back boosts the futures price performance, making palm oil lead the rebound in the oil and fat sector again. In the short - term, the palm oil futures price should be treated with a rebound mindset [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillating", the intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For domestic soybeans, the supply is tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a slight increase in the price of soybeans outside the pass. However, the slow downstream digestion makes it difficult for prices to rise. In the pass, the soybean market is in the off - season, and the price remains stable before the new grain is on the market [2][3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 are expected to increase. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is lower than previous forecasts and last year, and the inventory on June 1 is higher than expected. In the short term, domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to accumulate, and the pressure is becoming more prominent [2][3]. - For soybean meal, the supply pattern of domestic oil mills' soybean meal remains loose, and the downstream feed enterprises' subsequent replenishment enthusiasm is decreasing, resulting in prominent supply - demand pressure [3]. - For soybean oil, the supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak, but the macro - environment is stable and warm, and the increasing demand for biodiesel boosts its price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of futures for soybeans No.1, No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, except for soybean meal which remained unchanged. The settlement prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all increased [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of the main contracts of soybeans No.1 and soybean meal decreased, while that of soybeans No.2 increased. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2 and soybean meal increased, and that of soybean oil decreased [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil remained unchanged [2]. Spot Price - The domestic soybean spot price remained unchanged, and the prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased or remained unchanged. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged. The basis of domestic soybean main contracts increased, and the basis of soybean oil and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang also changed [2]. - The import costs of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual yields of US and Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, but Brazil's ending inventory increased. The weekly inspection volume and export volume of soybeans decreased, while Brazil's monthly export volume increased [2]. - The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, the national port inventory of soybean oil increased, and the monthly import volume of soybeans increased significantly [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate and crushing volume increased [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of palm oil and the ex - factory price of rapeseed oil increased. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased [2]. - The average spot price of rapeseed meal increased, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. - The weekly trading volumes of oil mill soybean meal and soybean oil decreased [2]. - The daily crushing profits of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans and the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China increased [2]. - The price of live pigs increased, but the expected profit of pig farming decreased. The monthly output of feed increased, and the monthly inventory of live pigs and breeding sows changed [2]. Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of soybean meal increased, and the historical volatilities of 20 - day and 60 - day soybean meal changed [2]. Industry News - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and the 2024 level. The soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and up 3.9% year - on - year [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].

Report Summary Core Views - The soybean market is complex. US soybean prices may form a bottom - building process in the new year, but breaking through the bottom range requires further drivers. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but inventory is currently low due to delayed startup. For 09 contract soybean meal, it is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise and domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market shows that Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May. If palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [7][8][9]. - The sugar market indicates that the most tense supply stage in the international market may have passed. With the increase in future imports, the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [11][12]. - The cotton market suggests that the fundamental situation of cotton has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is bearish, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [14][15][16]. - The egg market has stable supply, and the current old - hen culling is in the initial stage. It is difficult to offset the pressure of new production and the off - season consumption. The short - term egg price is expected to be weakly stable [17][18]. - The pig market has sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the short term, the downward space of spot and futures prices is limited, and the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies [20][21]. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: For 09 and other far - month soybean meal contracts, when the price is at the lower cost range, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market; when it is at the upper range, focus on domestic pressure and whether the bullish factors have been fully priced in [5]. - **Oils**: Given the bearish and bullish factors, it is expected that the oils will mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Sugar**: Considering the international and domestic situations, the future sugar price is likely to decline [12]. - **Cotton**: It is expected that short - term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts. For medium - and long - term contracts, wait for the accumulation of contradictions [18]. - **Pigs**: Do not go long in the short term, and there is no need to chase short positions. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long term [21]. Important Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - US soybean prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US - China presidential call brought optimistic trade sentiment, and good planting and weather conditions limited the increase. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with high supply due to high crushing volume [2]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will be favorable, but there will be less rainfall in Iowa and the north. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased recently, offsetting the decline in US soybean prices, and the cost of imported soybeans remains stable [3]. - The area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season will decrease, and the total output may be easily reduced due to yield fluctuations [3]. - **Oils** - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports are expected to increase by 17.9% [7]. - A commodity research institution estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's will be 19 million tons [7]. - The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil in May indicates a slight inventory build - up, but low inventories in Indonesia, India, and China provide some support for palm oil prices. If production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure [8]. - **Sugar** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day [11]. - In May, China's single - month sugar sales reached 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons; the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points [11]. - **Cotton** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the September contract was 13,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day [14]. - As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week, maintaining a normal level [14]. - **Eggs** - The national egg prices were mostly stable, with individual minor adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.84 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most areas had little inventory pressure [17]. - **Pigs** - Domestic pig prices mainly fell. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 14.17 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.01 yuan/kg. Market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand support is average [20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reduction of import duties in India may stimulate palm oil purchases, but sentiment needs to be observed for fluctuations; the driving force of the soybean complex for soybean oil is weak, and it will trade in a range [1] - The global vegetable oil market is entering a shortage phase due to reduced production and increased demand, threatening the global balance [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,060 yuan/ton with a -1.59% decline; soybean oil主力 at 7,638 yuan/ton with a -1.11% decline; rapeseed oil主力 at 9,348 yuan/ton with a -0.84% decline; Malaysian palm oil主力 at 3,878 ringgit/ton with a -1.40% decline; CBOT soybean oil主力 at 46.23 cents/pound with a -1.41% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 684,233 lots, a decrease of 37,461 lots; open interest was 385,610 lots, a decrease of 89,673 lots. Soybean oil主力 trading volume was 379,525 lots, a decrease of 59,191 lots; open interest was 615,062 lots, an increase of 23,623 lots. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 415,679 lots, a decrease of 84,838 lots; open interest was 292,984 lots, a decrease of 34,499 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 8,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 9,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 980 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 570 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 372 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 62 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 1,288 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 422 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 36 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 179 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Weather Conditions**: The US Midwest will have more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Canada is facing spring forest fires, with multiple provinces declaring a state of emergency, and the forest fire prevention level reaching the highest level 5, with a cumulative burned area of nearly 890,000 hectares [2][3] - **Palm Oil Trade**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month. Indonesia exported 2.88 million tons of palm oil in March, higher than the same period last year. From January - April, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased by 5.37% year - on - year, but export value increased by 20% [4] - **Soybean Market**: As of June 1, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than expected; the emergence rate was 63%; the planting rate was 84%, lower than expected. The area affected by drought in the US soybean - growing region was 17%. US soybean crushing in April was 6.07 million short tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production was revised up by 1.3 million tons to 169 million tons. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate was 84% as of May 29 [6] - **Other Oilseed Markets**: Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 18.6 million tons, also lowered the forecasts for sunflower seed and soybean production. In Canada, Saskatchewan's spring rapeseed sowing was 82.61% complete as of May 28; Alberta's rapeseed planting rate was 82.5% as of May 27; Manitoba's was 76% as of May 27 [7][8] 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 0; soybean oil trend intensity was 0 [9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The MPOB report on palm oil was bearish, while the USDA report was bullish. Due to changes in the US renewable fuel policy, the demand for biodiesel changed, causing significant fluctuations in US soybean oil. With the fast planting progress of US soybeans and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans, the domestic supply of soybean oil will gradually shift from tight to loose. During the palm oil production season, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to become marginally looser. Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high with sufficient supply. As the China - US trade negotiation makes substantial progress, the market's expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations has increased, which may be bearish for the domestic rapeseed market. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile, and it is highly likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate widely driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds [9][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of May 15, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [12]. 2. Other Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 0.50 million tons to 70.60 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 0.80 million tons to 32.40 million tons [16]. - As of May 15, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 5,542,630 tons [19]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 444 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20][21]. - As of May 15, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 0.33% to close at 7,754 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 1.24% to close at 7,984 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 0.83% to close at 9,277 yuan/ton [29]. - According to the MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production in April was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.62 million tons; exports were 1.102 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62%, in line with Reuters' expectation of 1.1 million tons; inventory was 1.865 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37%, higher than Reuters' expectation of 1.79 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 0.26% [29]. - According to the USDA's May supply - demand report, the US soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply. The report predicts that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazil's soybean output; imports will be 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; crushing volume will be 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; exports will be 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons. US soybeans fell 0.12% this week [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the prices of soymeal and palm oil are showing signs of weakness. The internal and external linkages of soybeans have strengthened after the price difference repair, and the decline in US soybean futures prices has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal, with its futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend. The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, and the lack of driving factors for palm oil has caused it to be dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [5] - **Reference View**: Weak and volatile [5] - **Core Logic**: After the repair of the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans, the internal - external linkage has increased. The decline in US soybean futures prices due to concerns about the demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has put pressure on the domestic soybean market. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the gradual recovery of oil refinery operating rates, along with the incomplete recovery of the oil refinery's shipping rhythm, have led to a short - term decline in the basis of soymeal [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Weak [7] - **Medium - term View**: Volatile [7] - **Reference View**: Weak [7] - **Core Logic**: The overall trend of edible oil futures is weak, with some short - term funds leaving the market. The US soybean oil futures hitting the daily limit down due to the lower - than - expected demand for biodiesel made from US soybean oil has dragged down the domestic soybean oil futures prices. Palm oil lacks driving factors and is dragged down by the soybean oil market, resulting in a weak operation of its futures prices [7].

Core Insights - Palm oil futures opened higher for the second consecutive trading day, but are expected to decline for two consecutive weeks, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Global trade easing and increased demand for biodiesel are contributing factors that may influence palm oil prices positively [1]