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安信基金梁冰哲—— 构建反脆弱组合 布局AI高景气时代
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-23 21:49
Core Viewpoint - The "fixed income +" and mixed equity-debt fund categories are expected to experience explosive growth in 2025, becoming a core choice for investors seeking stable returns in volatile markets. Among the standout fund managers, Liang Bingzhe from Anxin Fund has gained attention for his distinctive investment style and impressive performance, establishing himself as a rising star in the field [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Liang Bingzhe employs a "barbell" strategy that balances value and growth assets, aiming to smooth portfolio volatility and enhance adaptability in different market environments [2]. - The investment framework focuses on three optimizations based on the PB-ROE strategy: achieving relative balance in industry distribution, ensuring reasonable time-based return distribution, and controlling volatility [2]. - In convertible bond investments, Liang adheres to a "low price, high elasticity" strategy, prioritizing inexpensive options with potential for significant upside based on logical support from underlying stocks [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Liang maintains an optimistic view on equity markets, attributing asset pricing to both fundamentals and liquidity, with a favorable domestic liquidity environment supporting higher valuations for thriving sectors [4]. - The convertible bond market is expected to face three potential scenarios based on stock market performance: strong performance if stocks rise, likely adjustments if stocks fall, and potential valuation pressure if stocks remain stagnant [4]. - In the pure bond segment, Liang believes that the fundamental and liquidity environment remains favorable for the bond market, suggesting a focus on high-quality bonds to achieve better risk-adjusted returns [5]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Liang emphasizes the importance of sectors benefiting from the AI boom, such as electric power and certain non-ferrous metals, which are expected to see significant profit elasticity due to product price increases [6]. - To mitigate potential risks from declining AI capital expenditures, Liang considers including undervalued options with low implied volatility in the portfolio [6]. - The strategy aims to balance returns and risks by constructing hedging combinations that adapt to the current complex market environment [6].
连续大跌 股指还想交易,该怎么办?
对冲研投· 2025-09-04 12:47
Core Viewpoint - The market has shown signs of cooling down after a prolonged period of strength, indicated by a significant drop in major indices, suggesting a potential period of consolidation and correction [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A sudden large drop in indices has occurred, breaking through short-term moving averages, indicating a significant sell-off by large funds, which reflects a cooling intention from the market leaders [2]. - The implied volatility of options has surged, reflecting extreme market emotions. During the downturn, this corresponds to a capitulation of bullish positions, while in an uptrend, it indicates a rush of new capital entering the market [3]. - The recent large drop in indices has led to a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with implied volatility showing a negative correlation with index movements, suggesting fear of further declines [4][5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market correction is seen as a natural response to previous extreme bullish sentiment, with the potential for a gradual recovery rather than a sharp decline, as existing funds appear to be staying in the market [7]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive, with expectations of a potential easing in the US dollar and domestic policies aimed at reducing competition, which could provide a foundation for future market strength [7]. - Despite recent declines, smaller indices and thematic stocks have shown relative strength, indicating that not all segments of the market are equally affected [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In light of the current market conditions, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, with a focus on maintaining a balanced options portfolio to manage risk effectively [9]. - For options traders, it is advised to limit exposure to positive Vega, as the market remains heated, and to consider strategies that mitigate risks associated with extreme downward movements [11]. - Conservative investors may find more stability in indices like the 50 and 300, which are perceived to have lower downside risk compared to more aggressive indices [11].