从被视为市场风向标的险资动向看，今年来险资举牌持续升温。Wind数据统计，截至 2025年8月19日， 险资年内举牌次数已近30次，创近四年新高。举牌标的高度集中在银行、公用事业、能源等低估值、高 股息板块。有分析认为，资金向高股息板块迁移的逻辑仍为确定性稀缺时代对相对安全边际的追逐，只 要低利率环境和"资产荒"的核心矛盾未发生根本性扭转，增量资金对高股息、低估值的银行股的配置需 求就会持续存在。与此同时，险资也加大了对高科技板块的调研和布局力度，工业机械、电子元件、半 导体、应用软件、电气部件与设备等成为密集关注的领域。 对于普通投资者而言，攻防兼备的哑铃型配置策略也同样适用。面对机遇与挑战并存，或可一边用低波 动、高股息的板块充当"压舱石"，另一边用高弹性的科技成长领域或聚焦科技的小微盘股来博取向上空 间，通过不同风格的均衡配置，有助于实现进可攻退可守的投资目标。 防守端，目前正在发行的汇安中证红利低波动100指数基金(A类：024220，C类：024221)，紧密跟踪中 证红利低波动100指数(以下简称"红利低波100")。该指数成分股及行业分布分散，加权方式也更低波。 根据红利低波100指数编制方案， ...

8月22日，A股上涨，沪指突破3800点，再创10年新高。 沪指日K走势图 多重利好共振下的资产价值重估 2025年，全球资本配置正在悄悄发生转变，美元走弱等不 确定性推动资金从美国市场流向估值洼地，而中国因经济韧性 与产业红利，成为外资增配的主要目的地之一。 国内政策积极发力对资本市场形成双重驱动。在"更加积极 有为的宏观政策"持续发力下，2025年上半年，中国经济顶住外 部压力实现5.3%的GDP增速，展现出超预期的韧性。另一方 面，央行通过降准降息等工具保持流动性合理充裕。产业新动 能加速壮大，AI硬件和大模型、机器人以及创新药等新质生产 力加速成长，成为吸引外资的新磁极。 在这轮由"政策托底+科技突破"共同驱动的价值重估中，外 资对中国资产的态度正从"可交易"转向"可投资" ，北向资金上 半年净流入超800亿元，折射出国际资本对中国经济转型升级的 长期信心。 估值修复叠加资金回流，中国资产成为美元流动性外溢的 价值洼地。 2025年伊始，美国经济不确定性大幅上升，在欧洲加速财 政刺激的背景下，美国经济的相对优势削弱，在美元走弱的驱 动下，资金开始流向美国以外地区。摩根大通资产管理公司指 出："从估值角 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

风险提示：文中提及的指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议。任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、 图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。基金投资有风险，基金的过往业绩并不代表 其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎。 来源：金融界 8月20日，上证指数低开后拉升。截至9时49分，中证红利质量ETF(159209)放量涨1.58%，盘中创年内第28次新高；资金热度不减，截至8月19日， 该基金获资金连续7日净流入。 专业人士指出，中证红利质量以"红利+质量"双因子筛选机制筛选出兼具"低估值"+"高质量"双重护城河的优质企业。其核心理念与巴菲特"以合理 价格投资卓越企业"的价值投资逻辑高度契合。A股的中证红利质量ETF(159209)与港股的红利低波ETF(520550)可以构建一个跨AH红利"哑铃策 略"，兼具进攻与防守性，并且通过两个市场分散风险，另外，低费率、月月可分红的产品设计，有望在长期持有中进一步提升获得感。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On August 13, the Wind All - A Index oscillated upward after the opening, closing up 1.02%, but over 3000 stocks declined. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.79%, 0.21%, 1.40%, and 1.45% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. Index futures outperformed spot, with the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closing up 0.96%, 0.333%, 1.72%, and 1.72% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 3.2 Market Outlook - **External Market**: In the US, the unadjusted CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and the same as the previous value; the month - on - month was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate in July was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous 2.9%, and the month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous 0.2%. The market currently expects a 95% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting [8] - **Domestic Market**: The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. State - owned banks have followed up and announced the fiscal interest subsidy work on personal consumption loans, boosting the sentiment of the consumer sector. A - share trading volume increased again to 2.18 trillion yuan today, and the SSE Composite Index broke through the high point in October last year. Among sectors, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and military sectors continued to rise after adjustments [8] - **Investment Suggestion**: The current market sentiment remains strong, and the index still has upward momentum. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in trading volume and the disclosure of corporate semi - annual reports. Cautious investors can consider reducing positions to take profits and then adding positions after the SSE Composite Index stabilizes. In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged, and the SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better [9] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the performance of domestic major indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, statistics of major ETF fund shares, and statistics of major ETF trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][14] 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. After the news was released, state - owned banks followed up. On August 12, Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China were the first to respond, announcing that they would implement interest subsidies on eligible personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, in accordance with market - oriented and legal principles [30]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 12 日，万得全 A 开盘震荡上行后探底回升，收涨 0.34%，但有超 3000 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别 上涨 0.52%、0.61%、0.41%、0.28%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期货表现强于现 货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 0.64%、0.72%、0.70%、0.47%（按前一交 易日收盘价为基准计算）。 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Two dividend ETFs under China Merchants Fund have implemented dividend distributions, highlighting the growing trend of dividend investment strategies in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Details - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (code: 159209) distributed a cash dividend of 0.003 yuan per share, with a distribution ratio of 0.3% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (code: 520550) distributed a cash dividend of 0.004 yuan per share, with a distribution ratio of 0.33% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked funds (Class A 024029/Class C 024030) have fully opened for subscription and redemption [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The market has formed two main dividend investment strategies: - Deep Value Strategy: Represented by the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF, which tracks the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, focusing on "high dividend + low volatility" factors, with a current dividend yield exceeding 8% [1]. - Value Growth Strategy: The CSI Dividend Quality ETF focuses on "high dividend + high profitability quality," selecting high-quality fundamentals in sectors like consumer and pharmaceuticals, with a historical yield of 3%-5% [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Current allocation suggestions recommend a dynamic balance to seize dividend opportunities, allowing investors to choose based on their risk preferences [2]. - Conservative investors may focus on the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF, while aggressive investors may pay attention to the CSI Dividend Quality ETF [2]. - For portfolio allocation, a "barbell strategy" is suggested to dynamically adjust the proportion of the two product types, with regular rebalancing recommended [2].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a rebound near previous highs, but the momentum of the index's rise is lacking, as evidenced by a decrease in trading volume and a shift from technology to high-dividend styles, suggesting a defensive stance from some funds [5][8][12] - The report suggests that the market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with a focus on rapid rotation among sectors and a potential continued decline in trading volume, indicating that a breakthrough in the index will require positive fundamental support [5][8][13] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-growth sectors, particularly in the "barbell strategy" focusing on high-dividend and small-cap stocks, as well as sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies such as steel, coal, and photovoltaics [5][14][15] Group 2 - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline in July, validating the effectiveness of anti-involution measures in boosting prices, which will be a significant factor influencing the A-share index [8][9][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff changes and export effects, as recent trade agreements between the US and other economies have led to increased tariffs, adding uncertainty to future US-China trade negotiations [9][12] - The report highlights the potential for high-dividend strategies to gain traction as market participants shift towards defensive positions, particularly in light of declining risk-free rates and the anticipated outflow of funds from the bond market [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The "barbell strategy" in capital markets attracts investors due to its risk diversification and balanced return characteristics, focusing on the simultaneous allocation of value stocks and growth stocks to leverage the strengths of both asset styles [1] Group 1: Complementary Role of Value and Growth Stocks - Value stocks are typically stable companies in mature industries with low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, providing steady cash flow and strong defensive attributes, especially during market downturns [3] - Growth stocks are often in high-growth sectors like technology, renewable energy, and biomedicine, offering significant capital appreciation potential once earnings growth materializes, thus providing additional return elasticity in structural market conditions [3] - The barbell strategy requires investors to maintain a balanced weight between both ends to prevent returns from concentrating in a single direction during market style shifts, enhancing overall portfolio stability [3][4] Group 2: Implementation of a Steady Return Strategy - Effective implementation of the barbell strategy hinges on managing the allocation ratio between value and growth stocks based on market cycles, industry conditions, and individual risk tolerance [4] - In stable macro environments, increasing the weight of growth stocks can capture high-elasticity opportunities, while in risk-averse markets, increasing value stock allocation can limit portfolio drawdowns [4] - The selection of industries and individual stocks involves assessing the financial stability and cash flow sustainability of value stocks, while growth stocks require a focus on the realizability of growth logic, industry growth potential, and competitive landscape [4]

Group 1 - The "Dumbbell Strategy" is a common investment approach in the stock market, characterized by allocating funds primarily between value stocks and growth stocks, which have different investment focuses and operational modes [1] - Recently, the strategy faced challenges as value stocks, particularly in the banking sector, experienced a significant decline of around 10%, while growth stocks saw notable increases, leading to discussions on whether investors should shift focus entirely to growth stocks [1][2] - Historically, the Dumbbell Strategy gained popularity in recent years as institutional investors targeted value stocks, driving their reverse rise and making low-volatility, high-yield stocks a market highlight [1][2] Group 2 - Policies encouraging capital inflow into stocks have contributed to the attractiveness of both value and growth stocks, leading to the popularity of the "Dumbbell Strategy" [2] - The effectiveness of the Dumbbell Strategy has been observed, with value stocks showing stable performance and growth stocks delivering better investment returns until mid-June of this year [2] - Despite recent market fluctuations, the macroeconomic fundamentals and stable policy environment suggest that the market trend will be maintained, with institutional investors significantly altering the market landscape [3]