曲线平坦化，哑铃策略优势初现？ 固收市场周报 2026 年 03 月 01 日 【固收观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：吴雅楠 证书编号：S1160525060003 证券分析师：刘哲铭 证书编号：S1160525120003 相关研究 《节前流动性仍较宽松，各期限收益率均 有 下 行 — — 利 率 市 场 周 度 回 顾 （20260215）》 2026.02.22 《大类资产配置周报——20260213》 2026.02.22 《信用修复延续，把握结构性机会》 2026.02.22 《如何理解与应对高估值？——可转债策 略周报》 2026.02.13 | 1. 曲线平坦化，哑铃策略优势初现？ | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 银行间流动性量价回顾 | 8 | | 3. 同业存单市场回顾 | 8 | | 4. 信用债发行情况 | 10 | | 4.1. 发行量与净融资 | 10 | | 4.2. 发行成本 | 12 | | 4.3. 发行期限 | 12 | | 4.4. 取消发行情况 | 12 | | 5. 信用债成交、估值情况 | 13 | | 5 ...

2月26日，港股整体延续近期下跌趋势，截至收盘，恒指、恒科指分别重挫1.44%、2.87%。大型互联网 龙头集体回调，阿里巴巴-W跌超3%，腾讯控股、美团-W跌超2%，小米集团-W跌逾1%。香港大盘 30ETF（520560）场内价格收跌1.98%，下探上市以来新低。 | 分时 $日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级量加 面线 工具 @ (2 > | | 香港大盘30ETF 1 | | 520560 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 520560.SH(香港大盘30ETF] 2025/11/17 收0.976 幅-0.71%(-0.007) 开0.904 高0.985 低0.974 四 | | | | 0.018 -1.98% | | MAS 0.9841 MA10 0.9811 MA20 0.9811 2025/10/13-2026/02/26(91日)▼ | | | | | | | | | 15:59:59 闭击 | T+0 随 元 (1) | | 1005- | 1.006 | 净值击势 | 华宝福投资管生中国[雷雷上市]30 | | | ...

"买一只股票之前，我通常会先问自己：如果这只股票基本面没有发生大的变化，未来股价再跌20%， 我是否敢于继续加仓？"盘京投资拟任基金经理粘洪峰说，如果答案是肯定的，这笔投资才能真正进入 观察序列。 这一近乎苛刻的心理测试，折射出他投资哲学的底色：深度价值，左侧逆向。在他眼中，股价下跌从来 不是风险，而是优质资产的折扣券。 二十年投资生涯，粘洪峰将这套反脆弱框架淬炼成穿越周期的护身符。正是这份定力，让他在过去几年 的港股回调阶段中斩获正收益，在市场上行阶段中跑赢市场，做到连续7年跑赢恒生指数，在恒生指数 表现基本持平的背景下，赚取了翻倍的投资收益，也将他在险资"巨轮"上的管理规模一路推升至超500 亿元，成为港股市场上管理规模最大的投资经理之一。 如今，这位深谙绝对收益之道的投资老将，选择加盟百亿私募盘京投资，开启他的"第三次创业"。从险 资的纪律中走来，他将那些历经市场检验的深厚积淀悉数装入行囊，带入一个更灵活、更锐利的新战 场。从"巨轮"到"快艇"，变的是决策效率与策略灵活度，不变的是对深度价值的信仰、对成本"护城 河"的执念，以及对绝对收益的坚守。 站在新的起点，粘洪峰将如何在私募舞台上践行他的投资哲学？ ...

"买一只股票之前，我通常会先问自己：如果这只股票基本面没有发生大的变化，未来股价再跌20%， 我是否敢于继续加仓？"盘京投资拟任基金经理粘洪峰说，如果答案是肯定的，这笔投资才能真正进入 观察序列。 这一近乎苛刻的心理测试，折射出他投资哲学的底色：深度价值，左侧逆向。在他眼中，股价下跌从来 不是风险，而是优质资产的折扣券。 二十年投资生涯，粘洪峰将这套反脆弱框架淬炼成穿越周期的护身符。正是这份定力，让他在过去几年 的港股回调阶段中斩获正收益，在市场上行阶段中跑赢市场，做到连续7年跑赢恒生指数，在恒生指数 表现基本持平的背景下，赚取了翻倍的投资收益，也将他在险资"巨轮"上的管理规模一路推升至超500 亿元，成为港股市场上管理规模最大的投资经理之一。 如今，这位深谙绝对收益之道的投资老将，选择加盟百亿私募盘京投资，开启他的"第三次创业"。从险 资的纪律中走来，他将那些历经市场检验的深厚积淀悉数装入行囊，带入一个更灵活、更锐利的新战 场。从"巨轮"到"快艇"，变的是决策效率与策略灵活度，不变的是对深度价值的信仰、对成本"护城 河"的执念，以及对绝对收益的坚守。 为此，粘洪峰打磨出了自己最锋利的一把利器——"恐慌性买入 ...

2024年"924"行情以来，A股市场经历了波澜壮阔的一年半。转眼间，我们已站在2026年的起点。随着上证指数创下近十年新高，市场在欢呼声中也开始出 现分歧：这轮牛市还能涨多久？是"烟花"将尽，还是"慢牛"刚启？ 作为自媒体创作者，我结合近期方正证券、国泰海通、高盛、中信建投等机构的官方核心观点，为你抽丝剥茧，聊聊我对这轮牛市终局的深度思考。 3. 科技的突破：重塑估值体系的引擎如果说资金是血液，那么科技就是心脏。2025年DeepSeek、机器人、集成电路等新技术的出现，打开了市场对未来增 长的预期空间 2026年初的A股，已经不是那个在绝望中重生的少年，而是一位步入壮年的奔跑者。 方正证券在2026年初的研报中明确指出，A股已经进入牛市第三年 这意味着什么？意味着 "闭眼买入都能涨"的阶段可能已经过去。2026年的市场，大概率不会再是单纯的普涨，而是对节奏把握和结构选择的巨大考验。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕将这轮牛市定义为 "转型牛" 。他认为，这轮行情的典型特征是经济结构转型与资本市场改革交相辉映。虽然市场在2025年经 历了大幅波动，但这头"牛"远未结束，2026年甚至有望挑战十年前的高位 要判断牛 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative in the recent U.S. stock market revolves around the "AI replacement risk," leading to significant volatility in financial and industrial sectors, with a massive influx of capital into semiconductors and indiscriminate selling of software stocks [1] - JPMorgan's trading desk reports that extreme market sentiment regarding AI replacement is nearing its end, suggesting a buying opportunity for undervalued software stocks and assets immune to AI disruption [1][8] - The semiconductor sector shows a high position concentration at +4 standard deviations, while the software sector is at a low of -3.5 standard deviations, marking a historical extreme in position differences [1] Group 2 - In the software industry, the negative narrative is difficult to disprove, as companies struggle to demonstrate that AI will not disrupt them in the coming years. Analysts recommend a "barbell strategy" to invest in top software companies with strong free cash flow while avoiding overvalued stocks [3] - The wealth management and life sciences sectors are experiencing profit expansion despite recent stock declines. Analysts believe that AI will enhance profit margins in wealth management rather than replace client relationships [4] - The logistics sector is facing significant fear due to AI advancements, particularly after a competitor's announcement of an AI platform that dramatically increases freight scheduling efficiency, leading to a 25% drop in CHRW's stock [5] Group 3 - In Japan's IT services market, the reliance on system integrators and a talent shortage means that AI is unlikely to replace outsourcing in the short term, instead serving to alleviate talent shortages and enhance profit margins for system integrators [6][7] - JPMorgan's trading team suggests a strategy to go long on a basket of severely mispriced stocks that are immune to AI disruption, indicating a potential bottoming opportunity for large tech stocks [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry has entered the 2.0 era, shifting from "import imitation" to "innovation output," with new forms like license-out and new co indicating a transformation in internationalization [1] - In the first quarter of 2026, the total transaction amount for Chinese innovative drug licensing (BD) exceeded $33.28 billion, surpassing the highest quarterly level of 2025, marking a shift from a "follower" to a core driver in the global innovation value chain [1][2] - The explosive growth in BD transactions is attributed to multiple factors, including the global pharmaceutical industry's "patent cliff" and "innovation demand," alongside China's recognized R&D efficiency and clinical capabilities [1] Transaction Growth - In 2025, the total value of China's innovative drug license-out transactions reached $140.27 billion, a significant increase from $2.56 billion in 2017, accounting for 49% of global innovative drug licensing transactions, surpassing the U.S. for the first time [2] - In January 2026, the upfront payment scale approached half of the total for 2025, with total transaction amounts reaching 22% of 2025's total [2] - The quality of transactions is also improving, with frequent occurrences of upfront payments exceeding $100 million and 37 transactions exceeding $1 billion, second only to the U.S. [2] Transaction Structure - The upgrade in transaction structure is a core feature of China's innovative drug internationalization, with traditional "selling seedlings" models being replaced by "technology platform output" and "global R&D collaboration" [2][3] - Notable collaborations include Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, where the partnership is based on a new molecule, demonstrating deep trust in China's R&D capabilities [2] Strategic Transformation - Leading pharmaceutical companies are adopting a dual strategy of "independent R&D + global licensing," creating a sustainable innovation ecosystem [3] - Examples include BeiGene's revenue surpassing 36 billion yuan in 2025, showcasing strong commercialization capabilities, and other companies achieving breakeven for the first time [3] Financial Performance - Over 70% of innovative pharmaceutical companies achieved revenue growth in 2025, with cash flow from BD transactions and IPO funding providing substantial resources for the industry [4] - The combination of domestic market cash flow and global licensing is creating a dual-driven model that reduces financial risks and accelerates the conversion of innovative results [4] Industry Ecosystem - The internationalization of innovative drugs is reshaping the global pharmaceutical landscape, with predictions of the emergence of global Chinese pharmaceutical giants [4] - Collaborations like that between Innovent Biologics and Takeda illustrate the strategic partnerships that enhance project advancement efficiency [4] Investment Trends - The innovative drug sector has seen a correction over the past two quarters, but long-term prospects for quality targets remain favorable, suggesting increased allocation [5] - The "dumbbell strategy" proposed by CICC highlights the dual characteristics of "innovation output" and "steady growth" in the Chinese innovative drug industry [5][6] Market Dynamics - An increasing number of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from "license-in" to proactive "license-out," achieving record high transaction amounts and gaining recognition in international markets [6] - Horizontal cooperation and integration among domestic pharmaceutical companies are accelerating to optimize resource allocation and address market competition and regulatory challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) has seen a significant increase of 0.73% with a trading volume of 117 million yuan, marking five consecutive days of gains. The dividend strategy remains a crucial tool for investors to build portfolios and reduce volatility [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The dividend strategy is viewed as a stabilizing element for many investors, providing a means to lower portfolio volatility [1] - Dividend assets have the lowest valuation levels and relatively low volatility compared to other equity assets [1] - The dividend yield of dividend assets still offers a high cost-performance ratio when compared to rental returns from major cities' second-hand residential properties and the yield of 10-year government bonds [1] Group 2: Market Recommendations - Dongwu Securities recommends maintaining a barbell strategy for overall allocation in the Hong Kong stock market, with value dividends as the core holding [1] - In the event of market corrections or opportunities, the strategy should focus on value dividends as a defensive core while dynamically monitoring other offensive directions [1] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its offshore links (022719/022720) closely track the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931722.CSI) [1] - The ETF has a significant focus on leading central enterprises such as the three major oil companies and the three major telecommunications operators, showcasing notable value style and defensive characteristics [1] - This ETF provides investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, allowing for stable returns and long-term value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday will lead to a 10-day market closure for A-shares, while Hong Kong stocks (H-shares) will continue trading, raising questions about whether H-shares can perform independently during this period. The recent adjustments in H-shares, combined with the surge in AI applications, prompt an analysis of whether the market has reached a correction point [1][3]. Market Trends - Historically, the Hang Seng Index has shown an 82% probability of rising in the three trading days before the Spring Festival, with a 40%-60% chance of increasing after the holiday. The correlation between H-shares and A-shares has strengthened, while the correlation with U.S. stocks has weakened, suggesting a potential for passive upward movement in H-shares [3]. Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen significant performance metrics, with an average increase of 72.7% from Christmas to the Spring Festival. The average increase for the Hang Seng Index during the same period is 3.8% [4]. Investment Opportunities - The recent pullback in H-shares has made valuations more attractive, with expectations of a rebound. The Hang Seng Technology Index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 24.5, which is below the historical average, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [7][8]. Innovation and Drug Development - Significant partnerships in the biotech sector, such as the collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly, highlight the potential for innovation in the pharmaceutical industry. This partnership includes a $350 million upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $8.5 billion [9]. Consumer Sector Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, consumer activity is expected to rise, particularly in sectors like gold retail and hospitality. Government policies aimed at boosting consumption are likely to enhance market sentiment and drive growth in the consumer sector [11]. Dividend Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, dividend strategies are becoming increasingly attractive. The dividend yield for H-shares remains higher compared to A-shares, making them a compelling option for investors seeking stable returns [12][13]. Automotive Sector Growth - The automotive sector is poised for growth due to supportive policies and technological advancements in smart driving. The introduction of new policies for electric vehicle purchases is expected to stimulate demand, while advancements in autonomous driving technology present further opportunities [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The prevailing consensus among institutions is to "hold stocks during the festival," driven by historical data analysis and current market conditions, with a focus on a "stable before the festival, aggressive after" strategy [1][5][9]. Historical Data Support - Historical data from the past decade indicates a clear pattern in the A-share market of "weak before the festival, strong after," with an average return of -2.20% in the second week before the festival and a recovery to 0.53% in the last week before the festival [3][4]. - The first week after the festival shows an average return of 2.03%, with an 80% probability of an increase, while the second and third weeks yield average returns of 0.86% and 0.83%, respectively [3]. - Smaller market caps and growth styles exhibit a more pronounced reversal effect around the festival, with industries such as computer, electronics, communication, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showing the strongest post-festival rebound [3][4]. Institutional Consensus - A survey indicates that 62.16% of private equity firms prefer to hold significant positions during the festival, with 69.23% optimistic about post-festival market performance [6]. - The favored investment strategy is a "low-valuation blue-chip + technology growth" combination, with 41.18% of firms supporting this approach [6]. Market Trends and Strategies - Institutions emphasize a balanced and defensive approach before the festival, adopting a "dumbbell strategy" that combines defensive and aggressive investments [9]. - Post-festival, the focus shifts to technology growth and industry trends, with recommendations for sectors like AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing [10][11]. - The "resource + manufacturing" combination is highlighted as an important foundational investment, with a focus on commodities like oil, copper, and aluminum, as well as traditional manufacturing sectors [11]. Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio that includes defensive sectors such as banking and utilities, alongside growth sectors like technology and consumer goods [11]. - For different types of funds, strategies vary, with long-term investors encouraged to maintain equity positions, while those needing liquidity may consider money market funds [11].