Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted, due to signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and counter-inflationary forces such as slowing wage growth and weakened demand [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates that the probability of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50% [1] - The firm expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts anticipated in early 2026 [1] Terminal Rate Expectations - Goldman Sachs has revised its terminal rate forecast down from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1]

荷兰国际：暂停降息不再是欧洲央行的选择 金十数据4月14日讯，荷兰国际集团的分析师卡斯滕•布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示，暂停降息已不 再是欧洲央行利率制定者的选择。布热斯基说，美国对欧洲商品征收关税，以及特朗普领导下的华盛顿 更普遍的保护主义政策，重新引发了对欧元区经济增长的担忧，而欧洲在国防和基础设施方面的投资计 划似乎给欧元区带来了更乐观的前景。他表示："欧元走强以及能源价格下跌，增加了当前贸易紧张局 势将对欧元区产生的反通胀力量。"他说，欧洲央行似乎正在考虑暂停最近的一系列降息行动，但在周 四的会议上，他们将别无选择，只能继续降息。 ...