Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to improve gradually each quarter, leveraging its product flavor development advantages and expanding its product range [1][27]. - The company has shown strong growth potential with a 6-year CAGR of 16.32% in revenue and 21.00% in net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][29]. - The company is undergoing channel reforms, which may cause short-term performance dips but are expected to lead to more efficient distribution and direct sales channels in the long run [1][30]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of leisure foods, with main product categories including green peas, sunflower seeds, broad beans, and mixed nuts [5][25]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline by 2.92% in 2025, followed by growth rates of 13.29% and 11.14% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 254.07 million, with a significant drop of 32.46% compared to the previous year, but is expected to recover in subsequent years [9][8]. Product Dynamics - The mixed nuts and bean products category is expected to maintain a CAGR of 32.37% from 2019 to 2024, with a growth rate of 39.8% in 2024 [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on flavor development, which is a key factor for consumer purchasing decisions [2][3]. Channel Dynamics - The company is enhancing its e-commerce strategy, with a 12.42% increase in e-commerce revenue in the first half of 2025, despite overall revenue decline [2][3]. - The snack wholesale channel is expected to account for over 20% of revenue in 2024, with continued double-digit growth [3]. Regional Dynamics - The company anticipates significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam, which serves as a model for expansion into other Southeast Asian markets [1][35]. - Revenue from the East China and Southwest regions has shown remarkable growth, with increases of 45.31% and 49.18% in 2024, respectively [35]. Innovation and Market Trends - The leisure snack market is projected to reach 972 billion by 2025, driven by rising disposable income and diverse consumption scenarios [67]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for healthy and innovative snack options, aligning with consumer trends [68].

Core Viewpoint - Guanyuan Food's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is 0.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 55.2%, while Q2 2025 shows a net profit of 0.22 billion, down 71.0% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The "old three varieties" performed steadily, with e-commerce and direct sales in supermarkets showing rapid growth [1] - Both e-commerce and direct sales channels achieved positive growth, while distribution channels faced pressure [1] - The company is currently in a transformation adjustment period, leading to fluctuations in revenue and performance [1] Group 2 - With channel adjustments in place and new products being launched, the company is expected to see a rebound in revenue [1] - The company is a leading player in the flavored nut sector, with years of industry experience and strong product quality and R&D capabilities [1] - Following the completion of channel structure adjustments, the company is anticipated to return to a growth trajectory in revenue [1] Group 3 - Based on the performance in H1 2025, the profit forecast has been adjusted, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]