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中金:从“中国游”到“中国购” 口岸消费能否从中受益?
智通财经网· 2025-10-16 23:59
智通财经APP获悉,中金公司发布研究报告称,伴随近年来入境政策不断优化,"中国游"逐步兴起;而 随着客流增长及离境退税政策的调整,"中国购"亦给国内消费市场带来新增长动力。机场口岸消费或小 幅受益"中国购",相对更为利好大型国际机场枢纽,但部分堵点仍需疏通。 受益入境政策持续优化,"中国游"同比快速增长。2023年末以来国家移民局、外交部等发布了一系列外 国人入境优化措施,同时受益汇率及通胀环境,境外旅客"中国游"呈现较快增长趋势。根据移民局, 2Q25中国大陆整体出入境人次修复至2Q19的96%,其中外国人出入境同比增长28%,修复至82%,自 1Q24起基本保持较均衡修复趋势(平均每季度提升约5ppt)。 "中国购"方兴未艾,游客注重特色消费及价格优势。中金公司测算2024年中国入境旅客平均消费为714 美元。中金公司认为外国人的国际旅游消费存在"重品质体验"的特征,即在酒店等上花费较多;但中金 公司认为外国人在中国的购物消费上也存在提升空间。2025年4月退税政策优化较大幅度刺激了相关购 物消费增长,从消费偏好上看,中金公司认为入境旅客喜爱具备中国特色/稀缺性或价格优势的产品, 典型如奢侈品、国产电子、 ...
中金:从“中国游”到“中国购”,口岸消费能否从中受益?
中金点睛· 2025-10-16 23:32
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth of inbound tourism in China, driven by optimized entry policies and the rise of "China Shopping," which is expected to provide new growth momentum for the domestic consumption market [2][4]. Group 1: Inbound Tourism Growth - Inbound tourism has seen rapid growth due to continuous optimization of entry policies, with foreign visitor numbers increasing by 28% year-on-year as of 2Q25, recovering to 82% of pre-pandemic levels [4][10]. - The average spending of inbound travelers in China is estimated at 714 USD, with shopping accounting for over 20% of their total expenditure [19][21]. - The recovery of inbound tourism is uneven, with foreign visitors still on a steady upward trend, while overall inbound travel has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels [10][14]. Group 2: "China Shopping" Trends - The "China Shopping" trend is characterized by foreign tourists focusing on unique and competitively priced products, particularly luxury goods, domestic electronics, and traditional or trendy local products [4][28]. - The relaxation of tax refund policies in April 2025 has significantly stimulated shopping consumption, with tax refund sales increasing by 95% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [26][28]. - Inbound tourists prefer products that are either unique to China or have a price advantage, indicating a potential for growth in shopping consumption [28][29]. Group 3: Airport Consumption Insights - Airport consumption is expected to benefit slightly from the growth in "China Shopping," although the impact on performance is currently limited due to factors such as shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications [5][30]. - Both duty-free and taxable commercial sectors at airports have the potential to benefit from increased inbound consumption, but current limitations may hinder effective engagement with foreign customers [30][32]. - The preference for fragrance products among Chinese travelers is significantly higher compared to travelers from other countries, indicating a unique consumption pattern [32].