油脂日报 | 2025-09-12 USDA报告发布在即，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9330.00元/吨，环比变化+86元，幅度+0.93%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8336.00 元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.97%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9893.00元/吨，环比变化+123.00元，幅度+1.26%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9160.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.19%，现货基差P01+-170.00，环比变 化-196.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8440.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y01+104.00， 环比变化-100.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10090.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.20%，现货基差 OI01+197.00，环比变化-3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，巴西地理与统计研究所（IBGE）在一份报告中称，预计巴西2025年大豆种植面 积为4766.6743万公顷，较上个月预估值上调3.5%，较上年种植面积增加0.2%，大豆产 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, it's recommended to focus on low - buying strategies as U.S. soybean oil gets support; for soybean oil, it has stabilized as U.S. soybeans closed higher [1] - Analysts have different expectations for palm oil prices, with some believing prices will remain under pressure due to factors like inventory increase, weak exports, and strong production; while the EU's recognition of MSPO is expected to promote trade [3][4][5] - For soybeans, there are various predictions on production, demand, and related factors in different regions such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [6][7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.93%, and night - time closing price was 9,348 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. For soybean oil, the daytime closing price was 8,336 yuan/ton with a 0.97% increase, and the night - time was 8,326 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. For rapeseed oil, daytime was 9,893 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and night - time was 9,902 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 140,395 hands, soybean oil by 144,185 hands, and rapeseed oil increased by 16,828 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 294 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 23 yuan/ton. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 563 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 994 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09%, and production decreased by 3.17%. Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand. The EU's recognition of MSPO will help trade [2][3][5] - **Soybeans in the U.S.**: Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53.3 bushels per acre, but the production is expected to be 4.271 billion bushels. About 22% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of September 9. The estimated soybean crushing volume in August was 182.857 million bushels, down 6.6% from July [6] - **Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina**: Brazil's 2025 soybean production is estimated to be 165.89 million tons, up 0.2% from last month's estimate and 14.5% from last year. Argentina's soybean sales slowed down, with farmers pre - selling 31.29 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans as of September 3 [7][8] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]