Report Title - "连粕大幅下挫 油脂高位震荡—国信期货油脂油料周报" [2] Report Date - September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the protein meal market, the CBOT soybeans and domestic continuous meal both showed a downward trend this week. The future of US soybean exports depends on the improvement of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by factors such as whether China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian premium, and RMB exchange rate. In the oil market, the US biofuel policy is unclear, and the Malaysian palm oil is in a high - level shock. The domestic oil market is affected by supply, cost, and policy, showing an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6][139]. Content Summary by Section Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis Market Trends - CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell this week. Domestic continuous meal oscillated lower, with the main contract breaking through the 3000 - integer mark and then rebounding at the end of the week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices also declined under pressure [6]. Export and Inspection - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than expected, but the cumulative export inspection volume this year is still affected by China's non - purchase [10][12]. Crop Growth - As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [24]. Weather Conditions - North American weather is complex, with the eastern half experiencing cool and dry weather, and some areas having unstable weather due to the interaction of cold fronts and monsoon circulation. South American weather information is not detailed in the report [27]. Oilseed Market - In August, the US soybean crushing volume decreased, but it was still higher than the same period last year. Analysts have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, and the US soybean industry is affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [41][42]. Inventory and Profit - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical available days for crushing are 19 days. The spot and futures crushing margins both declined significantly [50]. Production and Inventory - As of the 37th week (September 13), the domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The rapeseed opening rate also increased, but it was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [58][67]. Consumption and Basis - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 37th week was 190.12 tons, an increase from last week. The basis analysis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows different trends [61]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis Market Trends - US soybean oil first rose and then fell this week. Malaysian palm oil followed US soybean oil and oscillated lower. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rising, soybean oil first falling and then rebounding, and palm oil following Malaysian palm oil and oscillating [74]. International Oil Information - In August, the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory decreased. In Brazil, the proportion of soybean oil in soybean crushing profit reached a record high. India's palm oil imports increased in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. Different institutions have different statistics on Malaysia's September 1 - 15 palm oil exports [77][78]. Weather Conditions - Southeast Asia has experienced large - scale seasonal rains, with some areas having heavy rainfall [85]. Price and Spread - The prices and spreads of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in the spot and futures markets show different trends. The overall inventory of domestic oils increased slightly this week, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [95]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. The oil - to - meal ratio of beans decreased, while that of rapeseed increased slightly. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal increased slightly [115]. Inter - monthly Spread - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil increased significantly [123]. Part 3: Market Outlook Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic continuous meal, and various oil and meal indexes shows different trends [129][130][132]. Next - Week Outlook - Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of different varieties show different trends. Fundamentally, the protein meal market is affected by Sino - US trade and domestic inventory, and the oil market is affected by international policies and domestic demand [138][139].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are also increasing, with the trading logic focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals, energy - chemicals, and glass are likely to oscillate; non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be slightly stronger; and agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand factors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Overseas: US August CPI reached a new high this year, and initial jobless claims soared. The market fully prices in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are on the rise [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals may oscillate; non - ferrous metals may be slightly stronger; energy - chemicals may oscillate; precious metals may be strong at high levels [2]. Stock Index - Driven by semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With improved fundamentals, increased policy expectations, and reduced external risks, short - term market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market is weak, with low trading volume. Demand varies by product, with hot - rolled coil demand rising by 208,000 tons and rebar demand falling by 40,000 tons. Supply is increasing, and cost support is strengthening. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices slightly declined. After the military parade, steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore supply has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating. Production in different regions has different trends, and the market is in a state of game [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and profits have slightly increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: CPI data meets expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation is rising. Domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation may support prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation, and the medium - term upward space is limited [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by maintenance and tight mines, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating due to the possible resumption of a lithium mine [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be slightly stronger due to the industry conference and high - level oscillation of polysilicon [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy - Chemicals - **Methanol**: Port spot prices are strong, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure and potential demand improvement [12][13]. - **PP**: The market is in consolidation. Supply has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly with policy support [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is adjusted. Supply will increase after maintenance, and demand is slowly rising. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Urea**: The market is weak. Supply is under pressure, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to decline further [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The area of drought - affected soybean - growing regions in the US has expanded, and the probability of La Nina in the fourth quarter has increased to 71%. The market is affected by expected yield and export adjustments [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Rapeseed meal has potential for upward movement [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of US soybean oil rose. Domestic oil prices are in narrow - range adjustment, and rapeseed oil has a strong sentiment of reluctant to sell [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose slightly, but inventory is high, and export demand is weak [18]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn price is expected to increase slightly, and farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices have stabilized after a decline. The supply is expected to increase in September, and prices may be under pressure in October - November [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, it's recommended to focus on low - buying strategies as U.S. soybean oil gets support; for soybean oil, it has stabilized as U.S. soybeans closed higher [1] - Analysts have different expectations for palm oil prices, with some believing prices will remain under pressure due to factors like inventory increase, weak exports, and strong production; while the EU's recognition of MSPO is expected to promote trade [3][4][5] - For soybeans, there are various predictions on production, demand, and related factors in different regions such as the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [6][7][8] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,330 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.93%, and night - time closing price was 9,348 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. For soybean oil, the daytime closing price was 8,336 yuan/ton with a 0.97% increase, and the night - time was 8,326 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. For rapeseed oil, daytime was 9,893 yuan/ton with a 1.26% increase, and night - time was 9,902 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. The trading volume of palm oil decreased by 140,395 hands, soybean oil by 144,185 hands, and rapeseed oil increased by 16,828 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 294 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 23 yuan/ton. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 563 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil was - 994 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.09%, and production decreased by 3.17%. Analysts expect Malaysia's September palm oil inventory to increase by 6% to 2.3 million tons due to weak exports and domestic demand. The EU's recognition of MSPO will help trade [2][3][5] - **Soybeans in the U.S.**: Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast to 53.3 bushels per acre, but the production is expected to be 4.271 billion bushels. About 22% of the U.S. soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of September 9. The estimated soybean crushing volume in August was 182.857 million bushels, down 6.6% from July [6] - **Soybeans in Brazil and Argentina**: Brazil's 2025 soybean production is estimated to be 165.89 million tons, up 0.2% from last month's estimate and 14.5% from last year. Argentina's soybean sales slowed down, with farmers pre - selling 31.29 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans as of September 3 [7][8] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/9/12 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8336 | 9330 | 9893 | 3088 | 2550 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 80 | 86 | 123 | 22 | -15 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.97% | 0.93% | -3.15% | 0.72% | -0.58% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

2025年09月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆收涨，豆油企稳 | 2 | | 豆粕：跟随美豆反弹，等待USDA供需报告 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：关注新棉上市情况 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：博弈延续 | 10 | | 生猪：现货弱势，政策偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 豆油：美豆收涨，豆油企稳 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,33 ...