Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors declining and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors expanding. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are precious metals and non - ferrous metals, while the weak sectors are energy and black sectors [2]. - The comprehensive signals of strategies for methanol, float glass, iron ore, lead, and aluminum are neutral this week, except for iron ore which is bearish [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of short positions in commodities increased slightly this week, with the intensity of black and energy - chemical factors falling and the differentiation between non - ferrous and black sectors widening. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are strong, while energy and black sectors are weak. Gold's time - series momentum rebounded significantly, but the internal difference between gold and silver continued to expand. The position factor of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, with copper being strong. In the black sector, the momentum factor increased marginally, and iron ore was stronger than rebar in the term structure. In the energy - chemical sector, cross - sectional momentum was differentiated, with chemicals weaker than energy, and soda ash being weak. In the agricultural products sector, the positions of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while that of soybean meal increased, and one can short the oil - meal ratio [2]. Methanol - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.09%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.11%, the spread factor decreased by 0.09%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol decreased (bullish on the supply side); the average start - up of traditional downstream industries continued to decline, but the start - up of the olefin industry rebounded (neutral on the demand side); ports continued to accumulate inventory significantly (bearish on the inventory side); overseas methanol spot market prices and import profits released bearish signals, and the bullish strength of the spread side weakened and turned neutral [3]. Float Glass - Last week, the returns of major category factors were flat month - on - month, and this week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral. Fundamentally, the start - up load of float glass was flat compared with last week (neutral on the supply side); the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities decreased slightly (neutral on the demand side); the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased (slightly bullish on the inventory side); the profit of pipeline - gas - made float glass declined, and the bullish strength of the profit side weakened and remained neutral; the spread factor in the Shenyang - Shahe area released a bearish signal (slightly bearish on the spread side) [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.21%, the spread factor decreased by 0.25%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.16%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains bearish. Fundamentally, the import volume in August increased, and the shipment volume from Brazil rose (bearish on the supply side); the consumption of sintering ore powder by steel mills increased, and the bullish feedback on the demand side strengthened, but the signal remained neutral; the inventory of major port iron ore continued to accumulate, and the bearish feedback on the inventory side strengthened, with the signal remaining neutral; the freight rate decreased, but the spot price increased, and the bearish feedback on the spread side weakened, with the signal remaining bearish [9]. Lead - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened by 0.27%, the inventory factor increased by 0.04%, the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal turned neutral. Fundamentally, the profit of SMM recycled lead was repaired, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral; LME lead registered warehouses and inventory continued to reduce, and the inventory - side signal remained neutral; the LME near - far - month spread widened, and the spread - side signal turned from neutral to bullish [9]. Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor of the strategy net value weakened, and the spread factor decreased by 0.03%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. Fundamentally, the recovery speed of the supply side slowed down, and the supply - side signal turned from bearish to neutral [9].

Report Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities has slightly increased, with differentiation in the precious metals sector and a slight rebound in the agricultural products sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are agricultural products and precious metals, while the relatively weak one is energy and chemicals [2]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed varying trends last week, and the comprehensive signals for different commodities this week are either long, short, or neutral [4][7]. Summaries by Relevant Content Commodity Market Conditions - Precious metals: Gold's time - series momentum declined, while the marginal position of Shanghai silver increased, and short - cycle momentum significantly recovered [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: There were some differences in positions, and the cross - sectional differentiation narrowed, with copper remaining relatively strong [2]. - Black metals: The term structure differentiation narrowed, the position factors of iron ore and rebar increased, and short - cycle momentum factors rose [2]. - Energy and chemicals: The overall short - cycle momentum declined [2]. - Agricultural products: The positions of oilseeds and meals slightly increased, and palm oil remained relatively strong in the term structure [2]. Factor Returns | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.55 (Methanol), - 0.23 (Float glass), - 0.07 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.00 (Float glass), 0.42 (Iron ore), - 0.19 (Aluminum) | | Demand | 0.00 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.00 (Aluminum) | 0.54 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), - 0.45 (Aluminum) | | Inventory | - 0.19 (Methanol), 0.82 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.12 (Aluminum) | 0.99 (Methanol), 0.91 (Float glass), - 0.44 (Aluminum) | | Spread | 0.41 (Methanol), 1.11 (Float glass), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.28 (Aluminum) | 0.41 (Methanol), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.75 (Aluminum) | | Synthetic Factor | 0.43 (Methanol), 0.63 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.27 (Methanol), 0.70 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.47 (Aluminum) | [3][4][7] Momentum and Structure Data of Different Sectors | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Products | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5] Fundamental Factors of Different Commodities - **Methanol**: The domestic device capacity utilization rate increased, the supply - side long - position intensity weakened to neutral; traditional downstream manufacturers' raw material procurement decreased, the demand side was neutral to bearish; inland and port inventories continued to increase, the inventory side was bearish; the market price in East and South China coastal areas released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [4]. - **Float glass**: The enterprise start - up load decreased slightly, the supply side remained neutral; second - tier city commercial housing transaction data released a long - position signal but with weakened intensity, the demand side was neutral to bullish; the inventory of Shanxi enterprises decreased, the inventory side was bullish; the Shenyang - Shahe regional spread factor released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [7]. - **Iron ore**: The cumulative amount of raw ore continued to decline, the supply - side signal turned neutral; the monthly output of WSA blast furnace pig iron in China continued to decline, the demand - side signal turned neutral; the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore concentrate continued to decline, the inventory side remained neutral; the freight rate of Brazilian Tubarao to Qingdao continued to decline, the spread - side signal remained neutral [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, the supply - side signal remained bearish; China's lead alloy exports in May continued to decrease compared to April, the demand - side signal remained neutral; SMM aluminum concentrate monthly balance continued to decline, the inventory side turned neutral; the 0 - 1 spread declined, the spread - side signal remained bearish [7].