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LPG早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure in other regions is high and demand continues to be sluggish. The expected increase in external sales volume and decrease in inbound volume. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From 2025/06/03 to 2025/06/09, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. showed various changes. The daily changes were 20, 2, 10, 1, - 4 respectively. The arbitrage window is closed, the contract basis has weakened, and the monthly spread has strengthened significantly. The FEI and MB in the outer market are basically flat, CP has declined, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The internal - external price difference has strengthened, especially PG - CP [1] 3.2 Weekly View - Factory inventories have increased, with Shandong factory inventories being depleted due to chemical demand. Arrivals have increased (mainly in South China), and external sales have increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, the PDH operating rate is basically flat and is expected to increase next week. The subsequent expected recovery in gasoline demand will drive up the demand for alkylated oil. The demand for C4 is expected to increase as several MTBE plants plan to start operations next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9304 lots (-565) [1] 3.3 Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas, prices in Shandong, East China, and South China have increased. The price of ether - post - carbon four has increased. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. FEI and CP import costs have increased, PP prices have increased, and the profits of FEI and CP for PP production have increased. The PG futures price has fluctuated upwards. The basis of the 07 contract has weakened, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread has strengthened. The US to Far East civil gas was generally weak last week. The port inventory has slightly increased, and the terminal has offered discounts [1]