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供应压力继续增加,价格逐步回落
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 11:32
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 【生猪日报】供应压力继续增加 价格逐步回落 研究员:陈界正 期货从业证号: F3045719 投资咨询证号: Z0015458 联系方式: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/8/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南(0) | 13.56 | 13.71 | -0.15 | 山西(-100) | 13.25 | 13.39 | -0.14 | | 湖北(0) | 13.62 | 13.69 | -0.07 | 辽 宁 | 13.27 | 13.34 | -0.07 | | 安徽(200) | 13.70 | 13.81 | -0.11 | 吉林(-300) | 13.17 | 13.24 | -0.07 | | 湖南(100) | 13.6 ...
股指期货怎么操作能少踩坑?老交易者总结的 5 个核心要点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 01:41
Group 1 - Understanding market logic is essential for stock index futures operations, as it allows for informed decision-making rather than following trends blindly [1] - Knowledge accumulation is crucial before trading, including contract rules, price formation mechanisms, and trading terminology, which helps reduce blind spots in operations [1] - Choosing the right trading time based on personal energy and focus can enhance precision in trading, aligning personal state with market rhythm [1] Group 2 - Establishing a personal analysis framework is important, whether focusing on technical indicators or capital flow analysis, to maintain consistent trading strategies [1] - Managing trading psychology is a hidden competitive advantage, enabling rational assessment of market conditions without being swayed by emotions [1] - Flexibly adjusting strategies in response to market changes demonstrates operational wisdom, ensuring trades remain aligned with actual market conditions [1] Group 3 - Monitoring price differences between contracts can reveal opportunities, as these variations often reflect market expectations for the future [3] - Maintaining a habit of recording trades, including reasons, processes, and outcomes, facilitates growth through regular review and analysis [3] Group 4 - Engaging in discussions with peers can generate new ideas and perspectives, breaking conventional thinking and uncovering overlooked details [4] - Maintaining a respectful attitude towards the market is vital, as it encourages careful risk and opportunity assessment, leading to steadier progress [4] - The process of trading stock index futures is characterized by continuous learning, practice, and reflection, contributing to professional development [4]
银河期货生猪日报-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:13
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price showed a decline today. After the previous continuous price increase, the market supply began to recover, but the price decline space is limited. The follow - up supply pressure still exists, and it is difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4]. - The pig futures showed a volatile decline today. After the previous sharp increase, the market's bullish sentiment decreased, and the futures price is expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The spread between contract months is expected to be volatile [5]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - The average spot price of pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg today, down 0.03 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions showed a decline [4]. Futures Price - Futures contracts like LH01 rose by 40, while LH03 and LH05 declined by 25 and 5 respectively. LH07 remained unchanged, LH09 declined by 35, LH11 rose by 15 [4]. Other Prices - The price of piglets was 440 yuan, up 1 yuan from last week; the price of sows was 1628 yuan, up 7 yuan from last week [4]. - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan [4]. Market Indicators - The slaughter volume was 133,615 heads today, an increase of 1108 heads from yesterday [4]. - The spread between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan/kg [4]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread was - 250, up 35; LH9 - 1 spread was 485, down 75; LH9 - 11 spread was 630, down 50; LH11 - 1 spread was - 145, down 25 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: High - level volatile operation [6]. - Arbitrage: LH91 long - spread arbitrage [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]
黑色商品日报-20250507
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 06:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].