Q&A 2026 年 VLCC 运价的主要逻辑是什么？ 2026 年 VLCC 运价的主要逻辑不仅包括传统的供需平衡和淡旺季因素，还涉 及地缘政治对影子船队物理安全屏障的击穿。近期，委内瑞拉、伊朗和俄罗斯 等国家的局势变化导致灰色供给和需求被迫正规化，从而推高运价。过去几年， 约 20%的油轮运力在灰色市场运营，这些影子船队依赖于特定势力范围内的物 理安全屏障。然而，自 2020 年以来，这些屏障正从多个方向被击穿，例如美 军抓捕马杜罗、伊朗国内动荡以及乌克兰在黑海对俄罗斯影子船队发起攻击。 这些事件使得灰色供给逐渐退出市场或转为正规化，从而导致合规运力收紧， 合规溢价扩大。 近期 VLCC 运价走势如何？ 对话油轮专家：委内事件如何影响油运市场？20260112 摘要 灰色供给受地缘政治冲击被迫正规化，合规运力收紧，推高 VLCC 运价。 美军行动、伊朗动荡及乌克兰袭击削弱影子船队，促使灰色运力退出或 转向合规，合规溢价扩大。 VLCC 运价在 2025 年末经历急跌后反弹，交易量增加消耗运力，春节 前备货需求启动，预计未来几周运输需求将增加，支撑运价。 委内瑞拉局势变化，美国恢复原油贸易并限制石油收入，要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest and investment in the cryptocurrency sector, particularly focusing on the IPO of Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange backed by prominent venture capitalists like Peter Thiel, and the favorable regulatory environment following the passage of the "Genius Act" [4][9][19]. Group 1: Bullish's IPO and Market Position - Bullish has submitted an IPO application to the SEC, aiming to list on the NYSE under the ticker "BLSH," marking the first cryptocurrency IPO since the "Genius Act" was signed into law [6]. - The exchange holds over 24,000 Bitcoins, positioning it among the top five publicly listed companies by Bitcoin holdings [10]. - Bullish has achieved a cumulative trading volume exceeding $1.25 trillion since its inception, with a daily average trading volume of $2.5 billion [10]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth Projections - For 2024, Bullish projects Bitcoin trading volume to reach approximately $305.18 billion, while Ethereum trading volume is expected to be around $144.53 billion, reflecting significant growth from previous years [11]. - The total trading volume for Bullish is forecasted to be $546.71 billion in 2024, a 173% increase compared to 2023 [11]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Strategic Moves - The passage of the "Genius Act" and the "Clarity Act" is expected to create a more favorable regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency companies, allowing for greater participation in the stablecoin market [19][20]. - Bullish is actively pursuing compliance by obtaining licenses in Germany and Hong Kong, enhancing its operational capabilities in these regions [14]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - Peter Thiel's continued investment in cryptocurrency ventures, including Bullish, reflects a broader trend among venture capitalists to capitalize on the evolving landscape of digital assets [18]. - The article suggests that as regulatory frameworks solidify, opportunities for growth and investment in the cryptocurrency sector will expand, indicating a promising future for companies like Bullish [20].

Core Insights - Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange, has submitted an IPO application to the SEC, marking the first crypto IPO project since the passage of the "Genius Act" [2][3] - The exchange is backed by Peter Thiel and led by former NYSE president Tom Farley, generating significant market interest [2][3] - Bullish holds over 24,000 bitcoins, positioning it among the top five publicly listed companies by bitcoin holdings [3] Company Overview - Bullish has achieved a cumulative trading volume exceeding $1.25 trillion since its inception in 2021, with an average daily trading volume of $2.5 billion [3] - The projected trading volumes for 2024 are approximately $305.2 billion for bitcoin and $144.5 billion for ethereum, reflecting substantial growth [4] - The company has also expanded its media and data business by acquiring CoinDesk, enhancing its industry influence [4][5] Market Environment - The passage of the "Genius Act" and the "Clarity Act" is creating a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrency companies, allowing for more structured participation in the market [7][12] - Following the successful IPO of Circle, other exchanges are looking to adopt a compliance-driven approach to capitalize on market opportunities [6][12] Strategic Moves - Bullish is actively pursuing regulatory licenses in Germany and Hong Kong to expand its operations in Europe and Asia [8] - The company plans to establish its largest office in Hong Kong, employing 110 out of 260 global staff, indicating a strategic focus on the Asian market [9] Financial Performance - In Q1, Bullish reported a net loss of $348 million, attributed to a $246 million impairment from bitcoin price declines, contrasting with a net profit of $104 million in the same period last year [10] - Despite recent losses, market predictions suggest potential recovery, with bitcoin prices expected to rise significantly [10] Investment Landscape - Peter Thiel continues to invest in various cryptocurrency projects, including Paxos and Ubyx, indicating a strong belief in the sector's future [11] - Thiel's investments span across compliance infrastructure and DeFi, contributing to a comprehensive crypto financial ecosystem [11]