Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensified pressure from the US, Europe, and Ukraine on Russia's energy revenue as a strategic move in the ongoing conflict [1] - Ukraine has shifted its focus to attacking oil refineries within Russia, with a significant increase in drone strikes targeting these facilities since August 2025, resulting in 21 out of 38 major refineries being attacked [2][3] - The situation in Crimea has led to gasoline rationing, with limits imposed on purchases, indicating the impact of these attacks on local fuel availability [4][5] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that targeting Russia's oil industry is crucial for forcing negotiations, stating that the most effective sanctions involve attacks on refineries and storage facilities [6] - Despite difficulties in fuel supply within Russia, oil exports have reportedly reached new highs, suggesting that sanctions and refinery attacks alone may not be sufficient to compel Russia to yield [7][8] - The US is considering further support for Ukraine, including the potential provision of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, although there are doubts about the feasibility of this plan [9][10][13] Group 3 - The French Navy recently seized a tanker allegedly part of Russia's "shadow fleet," which is used to transport sanctioned oil, indicating a proactive stance against such operations [14][15] - The "shadow fleet" has doubled in size since the onset of the conflict, primarily to meet the demand for transporting Russian oil, highlighting the challenges of enforcing sanctions [18] - The EU estimates that the "shadow fleet" contributes over €30 billion annually to Russia's budget, which is significant for funding the war in Ukraine [22] Group 4 - The article discusses three potential scenarios for Russia regarding the ongoing conflict, including a complete military victory, a prolonged low-intensity conflict, or a negotiated ceasefire [26][31] - The article suggests that the prospect of lifting sanctions is becoming less significant for Russia, as the potential benefits do not warrant major concessions [36][37] - Public resilience in Russia towards the economic costs of the war is noted, with historical context provided regarding the slow economic growth prior to the conflict [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's sanctions against Nayara Energy have led to a halt in crude oil supplies from Saudi Aramco and Iraq's SOMO, resulting in Nayara relying solely on Russian oil imports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Impact - Following the EU sanctions in July, Nayara Energy's crude oil imports in August were entirely dependent on Russia, with no shipments received from Iraq or Saudi Arabia [1]. - Typically, Nayara would receive approximately 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude and 1 million barrels of Saudi crude monthly, but it received none in August [1]. - The last shipment of Basra crude from SOMO was delivered on July 29, and the last shipment of Saudi crude was on July 18, totaling 1 million barrels of Arab Light crude [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Due to sanctions, Nayara is facing payment difficulties when procuring oil from SOMO, impacting its operations [1]. - Nayara's refinery, located in Vadinar, has a processing capacity of 400,000 barrels per day but is currently operating at only 70%-80% capacity due to challenges in selling refined products [2]. - Nayara's refining capacity accounts for approximately 8% of India's total refining capacity, which averages 5.2 million barrels per day [2]. Group 3: Management Changes - Nayara Energy's CEO resigned in July, and the company has appointed a new CEO from Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Views - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., specializes in energy transportation with a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, ranking first globally. The business segments include domestic oil transportation, LNG transportation, and foreign trade oil transportation, each with distinct characteristics [2][6]. - The domestic and LNG segments provide stability, while the foreign trade segment offers significant profit elasticity. The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran are expected to boost oil transportation demand, creating a favorable cycle for the industry [2][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Geopolitical Restructuring of Oil Transportation - The past two years have seen high average oil transportation rates, but seasonal demand has been weak due to limited actual demand and the impact of "shadow fleets" on oil transportation needs. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing sanctions on Iran may lead to a restructuring of oil trade patterns [6][16]. COSCO Shipping Energy: A Leader in Energy Logistics - COSCO Shipping Energy is a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group, focusing on the transportation of oil and LNG. By January 2025, the company will have a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, holding a 3.1% share of the global market [6][27]. Business Stability and Elasticity - The company’s business segments exhibit a balance of stability and elasticity. The foreign trade oil transportation segment is cyclical, while domestic oil and LNG transportation provide stable revenue and profit margins [39][44]. Foreign Trade Oil Transportation: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The foreign trade oil transportation segment is characterized by significant cyclicality. Factors such as the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions on Iran are expected to reverse current supply-demand challenges [8][53]. Investment Recommendations: LNG as a Safety Net - The company’s LNG and domestic oil transportation segments provide a safety net, while foreign trade oil transportation offers upward elasticity. The expansion of the fleet is projected to enhance performance, with profits from LNG and domestic oil transportation expected to grow by 55% over the next four years [9][50]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 3.96 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6, 9.5, and 8.3 [9].

公司研究丨深度报告丨中远海能（600026.SH） [Table_Title] 地缘重构破局油运，油轮巨头筑基扬帆 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 %% %% research.95579.com 2 中远海能（600026.SH） cjzqdt11111 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中远海能专门从事能源运输，自有油轮运力规模 2,050 万 DWT，运力规模居全球首位。公司目 前主要有内贸油运、LNG 运输和外贸油运三大业务，分别具有牌照化、项目制和周期性的特征。 内贸与 LNG 业务为盾，随着未来 4 年公司船队规模扩张，利润（含投资收益）增长约 55%， 夯实基本盘。外贸业务为矛，具有显著利润弹性。俄乌冲突缓解、对伊制裁趋严，将助推油运 景气周期形成闭环，提振合规市场油运需求，同时拆船加速消除供给焦虑。投资角度，二手船 价较高且新老船价差收窄体现了产业的乐观情绪，基于二手船价的重置成本提供估值支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声 ...