硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金原料端成本抬升，盘面走势坚挺 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量（周） | | 10 . | | 88 | 1 . | 49% | -9 . | 56% | 18 . | 80 | -3 . | 50% | -3 . | 59% | | | 进口数量（10月） | | 1 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures market trends. Attention should be paid to the influence of macro - sentiment on commodity prices, and at the micro - level, continue to monitor the price changes of raw materials and the production rhythm of steel mills. Weather may affect the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, so follow the subsequent shipment of manganese ore at South African ports this week [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy was affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, and its price fluctuated along with the black metal sector. Ignoring macro - factors, prices may continue to decline due to the downward movement of raw material prices and weak demand expectations. Domestically, the macro - situation is relatively stable with no signs of new policies. The previous optimistic expectations from China - US trade talks were disrupted by the Middle East situation, affecting commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, demand is peaking, the off - season is coming, and if supply continues to expand, alloy prices may face more pressure [6]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon ferroalloy production this week was 95,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons, with a change rate of - 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 31.35%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some regions like Ningxia and Gansu have resumed production, but the resumption in Inner Mongolia has slowed down due to environmental protection factors [15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude steel output in May was 3.017 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, and the planned output in June is expected to continue to contract. The total output of magnesium metal in May was 67,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in April was 38,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8% [29]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 69,990 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,210 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 15,228, a week - on - week decrease of 348, and the inventory was 76,140 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.2 days, showing a decreasing trend in different regions [39]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy has rebounded slightly, the cost is relatively stable, but the expected cost may move down later [43]. 3.3 Manganese Ferroalloy 3.3.1 Supply - Manganese ferroalloy production this week was 173,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons, with a change rate of 0.9%. The weekly operating rate was 35.3%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from last week. The main production area in Ningxia continued to resume production, while some small furnaces in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were shut down for maintenance [47]. 3.3.2 Raw Materials - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes have continued to decline, and the port manganese ore prices are fluctuating. The global manganese ore departure volume has decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has increased month - on - month, with high port demand [55][59][66]. 3.3.3 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. The weekly output of rebar has decreased by 108,900 tons, weakening the demand support for manganese ferroalloy [72]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 97,951, a week - on - week decrease of 3,061, and the inventory was 489,755 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.15 days, showing different trends in different regions [76][79]. 3.3.5 Profit - The cost support for manganese ferroalloy has weakened, and price competition at the ore end is emerging [83].