首次覆盖: 同建共享，行稳致远 中通快递-W(2057) 中通快递首次覆盖报告 [Table_Industry] 运输 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 中通快递的"同建共享"理念为加盟商网络的稳定打下了坚实的基础。稳健的盈利能 力及高效的成本管控水平，将助力公司巩固行业龙头地位。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万人民币 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 38419 | 44281 | 47107 | 51685 | 57706 | | +/-% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 11663 | 13717 | 13571 | 14952 | 16692 | | 归母净利润 | 8749 | 8817 | 9565 | 10633 | 11929 | | +/-% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 12% | | PE | 14.96 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities gives ZTO Express (02057) a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 195.99, highlighting the company's "co-building and sharing" concept as a solid foundation for a stable franchise network, which will help maintain its leading position in the industry [1]. Group 1: "Co-Building and Sharing" Concept - ZTO Express introduced the "co-building and sharing" concept in 2010 and transitioned major franchisees to shareholders by 2015, becoming the first and only express delivery company to do so, aligning interests and establishing trust, which enhances network stability and supports its industry leadership [2]. Group 2: Early Capital Investment - Since 2013, ZTO Express has benefited from significant early investments in sorting and other equipment, coupled with effective network management, leading to a steady increase in market share, which reached 14.4% in 2016, and has maintained the top position in the industry through continued investment in core assets [3]. Group 3: Balanced Development of Volume, Profit, and Cost - The company focuses on growing business volume and market share while maintaining profitability and managing costs effectively, resulting in simultaneous increases in business volume and profit per shipment following improvements in the industry landscape [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The firm forecasts ZTO Express's revenue for 2025-2027 to be HKD 471.07 billion, HKD 516.85 billion, and HKD 577.06 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 10%, and 12% respectively. Net profit is projected to be HKD 95.65 billion, HKD 106.33 billion, and HKD 119.29 billion, with corresponding EPS of HKD 11.89, HKD 13.22, and HKD 14.83. The target price of HKD 195.99 corresponds to a 15x P/E ratio for 2025, supporting a "Buy" rating [5].